franklin NCwx Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 What I'm looking at seems a lot different than MrBob. The euro ensembles look cold from hour 168 through hour 360. Just for an example, the 850 line doesn't pass north of southern NC that entire time span w/ another reinforcing shot coming in at 360 hours. It also has a much better setup for snow on day 7 than the gfs. It has a very strong rainstorm(2 to 3 inches of rain in NC) 2 days before that sets up a new 50/50 low which allows the day 7 storm to slow down and phase into a colder system. Thanks for the update Brandon. I'm gonna ask yo the same question I asked Mr. Bob, since you have access. Do the Euro ensembles turn the epo- after Day 10 like the GFS and GGEm ensembles do? TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 What I'm looking at seems a lot different than MrBob. The euro ensembles look cold from hour 168 through hour 360. Just for an example, the 850 line doesn't pass north of southern NC that entire time span w/ another reinforcing shot coming in at 360 hours. It also has a much better setup for snow on day 7 than the gfs. It has a very strong rainstorm(2 to 3 inches of rain in NC) on sunday/monday, that sets up a new 50/50 low which allows the day 7 storm to slow down and phase into a colder system. Does the Euro-Ens bring a piece of the PV back to Canada at the end of the run like the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Does the Euro-Ens bring a piece of the PV back to Canada at the end of the run like the GFS? Thanks for the update Brandon. I'm gonna ask yo the same question I asked Mr. Bob, since you have access. Do the Euro ensembles turn the epo- after Day 10 like the GFS and GGEm ensembles do? TIA No the PV i still sitting up in NW Canada to north of alaska, so it's not like the gfs. The cold is locked in by the blocking in the Davis Strait and a cutoff over SE Canada. It's a classic -pdo/-ao look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Glad to see we're finally back on topic. Regime change has indeed arrived; punt the super mild weather for a while. I'm looking fwd to skiing very soon. At lower elevations details are sketchy, but at least there's hope. Next week there is a possibility of snow in the Mid South but I'm not holding my breath. Euro and GFS both struggling with details, but looking less likely that it ejects too far north into the Ohio Valley. Right before Christmas another southern system is forecast in the 11-15; Euro ensembles hint as well. It could be anything from a Tennessee Valley snow to a (pleasant) Piedmont surprise, but probably not both. Depends on when it gens up after coming out of the southern Plains. I don't see a polar pig connection for arctic air, so temperatures will be an issue at lower elevations for both systems. However going deeper into December it's quite possible to get snow on one cold day in an otherwise "normal" temperature regime. If not, consider a road trip to the mountains. No matter what, it is looking good for the ski areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 What I'm looking at seems a lot different than MrBob. The euro ensembles look cold from hour 168 through hour 360. Just for an example, the 850 line doesn't pass north of southern NC that entire time span w/ another reinforcing shot coming in at 360 hours. It also has a much better setup for snow on day 7 than the gfs. It has a very strong rainstorm(2 to 3 inches of rain in NC) on sunday/monday, that sets up a new 50/50 low which allows the day 7 storm to slow down and phase into a colder system. Weak S/W ridging and WSW flow aloft from 288+.... potentially wet and cool but not a cold pattern. Nothing earth shattering, seasonal to slightly above. The 850 0 line is in northern VA by the end of the period according the StormVista version of it and certainly no sign of a cold shot at 360...but whatever dude.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Thanks for the update Brandon. I'm gonna ask yo the same question I asked Mr. Bob, since you have access. Do the Euro ensembles turn the epo- after Day 10 like the GFS and GGEm ensembles do? TIA Saw this from Will in the NE forum, regarding the EPO on the Euro Ens 11-15 day... "Its pretty neutral. There is some ridging more in the WPO region...EPO region just to the east has some ebbs and flows in the 11-15 panels. But the heights in general are much higher there by D14 vs D10. PAC seems to be undergoing a reshuffling....it wouldn't surprise me if we got a mini-torch in here when that happens....but the N Quebec blocking may protect us. That is a ways down the road though. Guidance has been struggling with the PAC quite a bit thus far this season, which is no surprise given the weak ENSO." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Saw this from Will in the NE forum, regarding the EPO on the Euro Ens 11-15 day... "Its pretty neutral. There is some ridging more in the WPO region...EPO region just to the east has some ebbs and flows in the 11-15 panels. But the heights in general are much higher there by D14 vs D10. PAC seems to be undergoing a reshuffling....it wouldn't surprise me if we got a mini-torch in here when that happens....but the N Quebec blocking may protect us. That is a ways down the road though. Guidance has been struggling with the PAC quite a bit thus far this season, which is no surprise given the weak ENSO." Thanks Grit, hopefully it will go towards the GFS/GGEM idea of a -epo so we can get all that cold that's been bottled up over Alaska. If we can combine the -epo with the west based -nao and -ao it should usher in a very cold start to Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Thanks Grit, hopefully it will go towards the GFS/GGEM idea of a -epo so we can get all that cold that's been bottled up over Alaska. If we can combine the -epo with the west based -nao and -ao it should usher in a very cold start to Jan. This is my hope as well. Yesterday it seemed like the EURO was trending to the GFS at least in the short term in regard to the placement of the storm for next week (big jump south). I was hoping it would do that in regard to the pacific in the long term as well. Seems like it has not made that leap. I wonder if after these two storms come through the next week or so, things won't be a bit clearer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Weak S/W ridging and WSW flow aloft from 288+.... potentially wet and cool but not a cold pattern. Nothing earth shattering, seasonal to slightly above. The 850 0 line is in northern VA by the end of the period according the StormVista version of it and certainly no sign of a cold shot at 360...but whatever dude.... That sounds different than what mine is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MADDOGG Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 WELL anyways things to me are looking much better than a week ago, even if it's not a lasting cold. I think (i think) by the time we get into next week their will be a totally different outlook. (after the dec 18th storm which i thought yesterday was a good bit further south than this mornings run) i would like to see it further south. but i still feel like this storm will open up the doors to let down some cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Thanks Grit, hopefully it will go towards the GFS/GGEM idea of a -epo so we can get all that cold that's been bottled up over Alaska. If we can combine the -epo with the west based -nao and -ao it should usher in a very cold start to Jan. When we had the big ridge way up in the Bering Strait a few weeks ago, I actually thought the GFS handled its demise better than the Euro in the way that it moved it into northern Siberia...whereas the Euro seemed to want to keep it there in the stait a little too long...so, we'll have to see how it plays out in that region going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 When we had the big ridge way up in the Bering Strait a few weeks ago, I actually thought the GFS handled its demise better than the Euro in the way that it moved it into northern Siberia...whereas the Euro seemed to want to keep it there in the stait a little too long...so, we'll have to see how it plays out in that region going forward. Good point, I also thought the gfs ensembles handled the retrograding block over Greenland better than the euro ensembles. I guess you could say it was the first to the party. At least the gfs has support from the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Wisher Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 And some snow flakes mixing in. I didn't see that coming! T Very fine snow flakes here, too!!! And I am in East Central Mississippi!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 12z GFS follows 6z and says "what storm?" for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 12z GFS follows 6z and says "what storm?" for next week. I pretty much gave into this one affecting North of us, but it looks to help the drought situation a little though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Day 11+ on the GFS looks interesting, ridging in the west, trough on the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Day 11+ on the GFS looks interesting, ridging in the west, trough on the east coast. by day 10 it has some ridging on the west coast with arctic air over much of the northern half of the US with LP developing in the GOM. It can't get any better than that for us southern snow lovers...too bad it's 10 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Freezer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Major grain of salt here......just a side note on Instantweathermaps.com it shows this snow depth staying the same pretty much for the rest of the run because of how cold it stays....still need the Euro to support it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 12z GFS follows 6z and says "what storm?" for next week. It doesn't say "what storm" - it does say "great look, but no cold air" This was never a true se storm. Always been a threat for TN and NC mountains and northward. I still think the GFS is in its typical not know what's happening for 72 hours when it gets into the 4-7 day period. It has been back and forth with cold air vs no cold air, or nice deform band vs no deform band. But the track has remained relatively consistent, like dallas to jackson, ms to birmingham before gaining latitude. That's a decent track for the tn valley if there's cold available. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 GFS looks very good in the long term. With regard to the day 6-7 storm, it is entirely different than the EURO as early as day 4, so I'm sure there will be many flip flops to come with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Day 11+ on the GFS looks interesting, ridging in the west, trough on the east coast. Indeed, the GFS has a nice pattern evolution with the E Canada ridging that connects with -EPO ridging in Alaska/NW Canada, with the big upper low in the E Pacific dropping south (wow has mentioned)...setting up split flow in E Pacific. 850's are chilly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 12, 2012 Author Share Posted December 12, 2012 12z GFS.. COLD! The vortex around AK weakens and develops a lovely split flow with some potent waves coming thru southern CA wit strong HP in place of Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Indeed, the GFS has a nice pattern evolution with the E Canada ridging that connects with -EPO ridging in Alaska/NW Canada, with the big upper low in the E Pacific dropping south (wow has mentioned)...setting up split flow in E Pacific. 850's are chilly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 12, 2012 Author Share Posted December 12, 2012 GFS looks very good in the long term. With regard to the day 6-7 storm, it is entirely different than the EURO as early as day 4, so I'm sure there will be many flip flops to come with that. Horrendously agree. Regardless of what happens here, I think we will be developing a pretty strong 50/50 low out of it and, at least per the GFS, kick off our pattern change. The idea of weakening the AK vortex and developing an active STJ with a split flow sounds like a real possibility. The SOI tanking and expected MJO burst plays right into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Eastern Europe looks downright miserable on that graphic, griteater. The upper midwest goes into the freezer to be certain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aubighitter Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I am just content it's showing a cold, cold Christmas . Fantasy land shows more potential at end of run. Things are definitely starting to look up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Horrendously agree. Regardless of what happens here, I think we will be developing a pretty strong 50/50 low out of it and, at least per the GFS, kick off our pattern change. The idea of weakening the AK vortex and developing an active STJ with a split flow sounds like a real possibility. The SOI tanking and expected MJO burst plays right into it. I'm also in agreement that this first storm in the 12/18-19 range could really set the stage for a legitimate southern US winter storm threat in the 12-23 to 12-25 period. There is certainly no guarantees in the timing of individual short waves at 10 days out, but the 12z GFS looked legit in it's setup for the 12/23 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Ummmm....this surely wouldn't suck.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 What would that big basketball Low in the Pacific do next in that kind of setup? I'm guessing the pacific pattern isn't as Doo-doey as it has been? Ummmm....this surely wouldn't suck.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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