valkhorn Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Yes, but that cold air in NW Canada is not heading in this direction, so your point is, again, moot. And don't come back at me with "well, it may not be in your backyard", because it's not going to be in yours either. We shall see about that. Since there's a good stretch of land above 6000 feet technically in my back yard I don't know how you can say that. This was an hour from my backyard a week after Halloween... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 And the Smokies are several thousand feet up, and that was with a strong storm. I'm sure it'll come. Early December was downright frigid, after all. GFS usually nails it! We've already had some very interesting weather this year, and cool shots to boot. There are 3 months or more of winter still left for North America, so things will be fine. If you don't like the weather where you live, then move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 We've already had some very interesting weather this year, and cool shots to boot. There are 3 months or more of winter still left for North America, so things will be fine. If you don't like the weather where you live, then move. and this post pretty much has nothing to do with anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 and this post pretty much has nothing to do with anything. I'm sure your area has had some interesting weather, too. Just because it isn't eight feet of snow and 50 below doesn't mean it's not interesting. If you chose to live in the south, my suggestion is to find weather that's more typical of your climatology to be interested in, or move. Thunderstorms are interesting. So are heat waves. So are nice long spells of rain showers and cloudy weather. So are sunny days. Life's too short to be miserable all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Early guesses on what the EURO is going to show anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Early guesses on what the EURO is going to show anyone? A bit cooler for days 7-10. No sig. wintry precip in the SE except possibly some NC/TN mtns through day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Ha! This is so cool Every once in a while I predict something and it verifys. I've got light sleet!! So much for a blow torch, nothing happening Dec. in Tonyville, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 And some snow flakes mixing in. I didn't see that coming! T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 A bit cooler for days 7-10. No sig. wintry precip in the SE except possibly some NC/TN mtns through day 10. 1) Congrats, Tony! Wait a minute. Did you say IP and S? 2) My guess is correct regarding the 0Z Doc. Nice and chilly spreading across the SE US starting next Tue night. Only sig. snow TN/NC mtns next Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 1) Congrats, Tony! Wait a minute. Did you say IP and S? 2) My guess is correct regarding the 0Z Doc. Nice and chilly spreading across the SE US starting next Tue night. Only sig. snow TN/NC mtns next Wed. Hr 168 has 996mb low on SC/NC border. Very close to something big for NC at least. Shall we have two storms to track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 1) Congrats, Tony! Wait a minute. Did you say IP and S? 2) My guess is correct regarding the 0Z Doc. Nice and chilly spreading across the SE US starting next Tue night. Only sig. snow TN/NC mtns next Wed. Thanks! Yeah, that batch that come over was all sleet with some flakes mixed in. Light, but very fulfilling, lol. I'm on board with a mostly normal, roller coaster winter with bouts of over running with an active gulf. Don't need record cold, just need cold enough.. but most of all you need rain....and the radar looks blank now. I'll be up a few more hours so I'll keep checking..in case this the last I see, as has happened in other winters, lol. But I don't think that's the case this year. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 0z Euro has two huge, moisture loaded storms for the NE next week. One on tues one on thurs, Thursday being a 977mb bomb off of Mass. This goes without saying we are headed into a very active period and someone will get hit next week! I have a feeling DT and others were wrong about this storm being a lake cutter or staying inland... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Euro looked very good in the LR for cold weather lovers in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Disagree. It still looks good to me. Why are people looking for minute details in a mid range forecast? The odds are stacked against you that you''ll be wrong unless you look at generalities. That is specifically what he is doing, looking at the generalities. Generally speaking there is too much energy flying around which means as Matthew East also pointed out when the GFS/Euro hone in on one shortwave you get a totally different solution. We went from an ULL to basically just a weak cold front moving through. Can us regular posters please stop thinking we know as much as professional METS with actual degrees in their expertise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I'm sure your area has had some interesting weather, too. Just because it isn't eight feet of snow and 50 below doesn't mean it's not interesting. If you chose to live in the south, my suggestion is to find weather that's more typical of your climatology to be interested in, or move. Thunderstorms are interesting. So are heat waves. So are nice long spells of rain showers and cloudy weather. So are sunny days. Life's too short to be miserable all the time. Bro you are out of control. This thread is on December forecasts not what was interesting over the spring/summer/fall. Look no one is saying there is NO WAY this will happen just that this run of the GFS doesn't do it....like at all....like not even close and there is zero moisture in your backyard. Dynamic cooling or whatever you need the moisture just aint there in your back yard. So have fun with the sun dynamically cooling clouds with nothing in them. Also when talking about dynamic cooling people need to remember you need the dynamics...again the 00z doesn't really have any. Will this solution happen? Probably not but it has equal chances of the ULL earlier runs suggested. The bigger news of the day is the Euro after 200 hours on it's 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 That is specifically what he is doing, looking at the generalities. Generally speaking there is too much energy flying around which means as Matthew East also pointed out when the GFS/Euro hone in on one shortwave you get a totally different solution. We went from an ULL to basically just a weak cold front moving through. Can us regular posters please stop thinking we know as much as professional METS with actual degrees in their expertise? The person I responded to was not looking at generalities and was not a met. I read what the mets and forecasters have to say here and I'm on their side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Bro you are out of control. This thread is on December forecasts not what was interesting over the spring/summer/fall. Look no one is saying there is NO WAY this will happen just that this run of the GFS doesn't do it....like at all....like not even close and there is zero moisture in your backyard. Dynamic cooling or whatever you need the moisture just aint there in your back yard. So have fun with the sun dynamically cooling clouds with nothing in them. Also when talking about dynamic cooling people need to remember you need the dynamics...again the 00z doesn't really have any. Will this solution happen? Probably not but it has equal chances of the ULL earlier runs suggested. The bigger news of the day is the Euro after 200 hours on it's 00z run. I'm perfectly fine. Have a chill pill on me. I think we probably agree on a few things but I'm not your 'bro' and there's no need to be snippy. Those than I responded to we're nitpicking over one run, like you are in this post. They weren't mets, and neither are you. The setup is there and the pattern is favoring it. Also, look at the 00z ensembles. You might be surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 MRX thinks the cards are still on the table. THE ECMWF MODEL THEN DEVELOPS A FAIRLY STRONG SECONDARY LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WOULD KEEP SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SINCE THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DIFFER ON THIS SOLUTION (AND THIS LATEST WET ECMWF SOLUTION HAS ONLY JUST APPEARED WITH THIS MODEL RUN)...WILL TREND TOWARDS A COMPROMISE SOLUTION BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS FOR NOW. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN PROGGED BY BOTH MODELS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY...BUT THE EXACT TRACK REMAINS IN QUESTION AS BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN FLIP-FLOPPING WITH ITS TRACK OVER THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME WILL BE UNSETTLED...WITH THE EXACT TRACK DETERMINING HOW MUCH COLD AIR CAN BE PULLED INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW. FOR NOW...WILL NOT MENTION ANY SNOW POSSIBILITIES OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL TREND TOWARDS THE GFS GUIDANCE NUMBERS THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT THEREAFTER...WILL TREND TOWARDS THE COOLER ENSEMBLE MEANS DUE TO THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AND LIKELY CLOUD COVER. This is as good as it gets this far out wih Morristown. They are siding with the ensemble means and thats the way to go with this. Either way, this is an active pattern setting up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I'm perfectly fine. Have a chill pill on me. I think we probably agree on a few things but I'm not your 'bro' and there's no need to be snippy. Those than I responded to we're nitpicking over one run, like you are in this post. They weren't mets, and neither are you. The setup is there and the pattern is favoring it. Also, look at the 00z ensembles. You might be surprised. Where's your red tag? Anyway...as was discussed yesterday, there just is not going to be enough cold air for this storm to work with (even if there is any moisture) so this is probably not going to produce much if any wintry precip in the SE. This, of course, comes from my very honest and humble non-red-tag opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I'm perfectly fine. Have a chill pill on me. I think we probably agree on a few things but I'm not your 'bro' and there's no need to be snippy. Those than I responded to we're nitpicking over one run, like you are in this post. They weren't mets, and neither are you. The setup is there and the pattern is favoring it. Also, look at the 00z ensembles. You might be surprised. Yes what I specifically responded was directed by you at a Met. Here is some history for you if you don't believe me.. As to the GFS Mean yes the general track is there but not the dynamics. Also there has only been one really good run for us. 12z, 18z, 00z, and now 6z all pretty much have solutions that equal to jack squat for winter weather verbatim and in fact 12z was really the only one with potential. It can still happen but again not much to go on outside of "I hope" or "could". That isn't to disagree with Brandon or Robert but they also left it open that probably nothing will happen with this given the GENERAL idea that there is a lot of energy flying around much like Chris said above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 6Z GFS isn't close for the storm next week. Christmas looks cool/cold but DRY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Matthew East has a great video up about this storm as usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 6Z GFS isn't close for the storm next week. Christmas looks cool/cold but DRY. I'm more excited about after this storm now that the Euro is showing a big cool down for the east coast and the GFS has some suppressed storms rolling through. All the models pretty much have a good look now in the LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I'm more excited about after this storm now that the Euro is showing a big cool down for the east coast and the GFS has some suppressed storms rolling through. All the models pretty much have a good look now in the LR. Agreed, the end of the run looks good and something to work with for sure, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Agreed, the end of the run looks good and something to work with for sure, I also agree. The 6z GFS does not show an actual storm to focus on but all the ducks are on the pond. **maybe the time leading up to x-mas. Looks like some kind os system moving through with plenty of cold air around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 sorry...but verbatim the 10 day EURO really does not look good for cold in the east/SE past day 10. It has a departing east cost trough with some ridging in the central US followed by another EPAC trough with all the really cold arctic air still bottled up in far northern Alaska/NW Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 sorry...but verbatim the 10 day EURO really does not look good for cold in the east/SE past day 10. It has a departing east cost trough with some ridging in the central US followed by another EPAC trough with all the really cold arctic air still bottled up in far northern Alaska/NW Canada. The Euro ens do not support an extended cold pattern either at this point in the 11-15 day period. The weeklies from the other day are more depressing. However, the CFS has a very chilly period from the holidays through the first two weeks of Jan...It has not been quite so gung ho on cold. This winter continues to look like a rollercoaster.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 The Euro ens do not support an extended cold pattern either at this point in the 11-15 day period. The weeklies from the other day are more depressing. However, the CFS has a very chilly period from the holidays through the first two weeks of Jan...It has not been quite so gung ho on cold. This winter continues to look like a rollercoaster.... I take it the euro ensembles don't show the epo going - in the 11-15 time frame like the GFS, GGEM ensembles do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 The Euro ens do not support an extended cold pattern either at this point in the 11-15 day period. The weeklies from the other day are more depressing. However, the CFS has a very chilly period from the holidays through the first two weeks of Jan...It has not been quite so gung ho on cold. This winter continues to look like a rollercoaster.... Thanks for the insight. Guess that tells you how bad last winter is when there is reason to get excited if the Euro is showing temps in the 40's for more than two days in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 What I'm looking at seems a lot different than MrBob. The euro ensembles look cold from hour 168 through hour 360. Just for an example, the 850 line doesn't pass north of southern NC that entire time span w/ another reinforcing shot coming in at 360 hours. It also has a much better setup for snow on day 7 than the gfs. It has a very strong rainstorm(2 to 3 inches of rain in NC) on sunday/monday, that sets up a new 50/50 low which allows the day 7 storm to slow down and phase into a colder system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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