deltadog03 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Its going to be very tough to get much snow with this potential system....I like the look, for rain....maybe SVR wx...and maybe snow in the higher elevations. I think the weaker, further south solution is more than likely right. Its going to be tough to time all of this out with how much energy this can bundle up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Its going to be very tough to get much snow with this potential system....I like the look, for rain....maybe SVR wx...and maybe snow in the higher elevations. I think the weaker, further south solution is more than likely right. Its going to be tough to time all of this out with how much energy this can bundle up. I am just glad we have something to watch right now and that things are getting more active. I'll take snow whenever I can get it, but maybe this will be just the beginning and will get the ball rolling for the rest of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I think it's a mistake to place too much emphasis on any individual shortwave at this point in time. The best thing to do is focus on the ingredients and the rest will come together in time. The most important pieces to a snowstorm in this pattern are going to be the usual suspects 500mb low over new england that slowly exits and blocking to the north of it. That slows the pattern down and suppresses the system allowing dynamics to take over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Wow... west coast trough and an aleutian high isn't good...... is it going to take a met for you to understand that isn't a good pattern for the SE? Look at the pretty colors!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I don't think we can underestimate the importance of this potential wetter pattern, if it verifys...and already yesterday I got some good rains down here. I'm less interested in a big gom low following the favored path near Christmas, pretty as that is, as I am a weaker storm coming up into some cold damming. If the rains into next week turn out to be real, then I could see some overrunning around Xmas. Let's get the rains into this drought....the cold will follow...it's winter. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 12z GFS continues to pound the idea of pattern change, and kicking it off with a potential winter storm for the SE/Mid Atlantic region. This previous wave then falls back into this storm and forms a full-fledged 50/50 low. Meanwhile in the pacific, as hinted at on last night's 0z run, a UL drops well south and cuts off from the main flow looking beyond D+10, firing up the STJ (recent tanking of the SOI portends to this idea). This effectively destroys the persistent +EPO/-PNA setup we've been dealing with the past few weeks. If this comes to pass, expect a more persistent cold pattern with arctic fronts finally making their way down to our neck of the woods. In addition, the active STJ will increase our threats for winter weather. The first threat we've been seeing with the "kick-off" system a week from now is coming in before any real cold is established so it's going to be a borderline event that's going to hinge on dynamic effects, if it even comes to pass at all. After this storm, cold air should arrive in more abundance, along with a more stormier pattern as the Pacific may finally be on our side. Were there any signs on the 12Z EURO or Ensembles that mirrored the GFS signs flipping the pacific? There's lots of discussion on the blocking but I'm also interested in hearing about more consensus in regard to the EPO turning negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Were there any signs on the 12Z EURO or Ensembles that mirrored the GFS signs flipping the pacific? There's lots of discussion on the blocking but I'm also interested in hearing about more consensus in regard to the EPO turning negative. No sign of it at day 10 on the Euro or Euro Ens...would have to get someone with paid access to comment on the post day 10 Euro Ens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 No sign of it at day 10 on the Euro or Euro Ens...would have to get someone with paid access to comment on the post day 10 Euro Ens http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Is there something brewing, channel 13 weather said next Tuesday Wednesday has to be watched that we may get our first significant bout of winter in the NC Mtns. Jason said not definite just something he is watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 The GFS is still adament to put a big strat block/ridge at the 10 and 30 hPa levels in North central Canada and moving the PV to Siberia.First coming across Alaska and the core setting up just west of Hudson Bay.The strat still looks warm at the 10 and 30 hPa levels,all the strong warming is on our side of the globe and most of Canada looks blocked up for a while.I still believe this to be a Canadian warming Looking later it looks like the blocking could relax just slightly as the block weakens in the long range but not totally sure on that yet.The GFS in the long range is showing an even stronger warming event coming up from Asia.Even on the long range it is showing stronger warming already coming back into western Alaska at 10/30 hPa.This could be the MMW that takes the PV out altogether. Next 3 or 4 weeks should be interesting to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 The euroENS at 6hr intervals show a pretty sizeable snowstorm from hour 186 on over western/northern NC into Virginia. Don't really agree with how it portrays the SLP and I have a hard time seeing this system climb the coast as much it's showing if there i such strong blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I am highly doubtful of any storm producing any sizeable snowfall amounts next week. There is simply very little cold air to work with...Consider me a skeptic on this one. Of course somebody could always get a quick thump, but honestly I don't see a widespread event. I am shocked, to say the least, that Morristown made the comments they made in their evening weather analysis - shocked. They are probably the most conservative weather outlet in the southeast. I am almost 100% certain that gets amended(removed) by the morning crew. I think the low moves through, but as....cold rain. I am normally not overly pessimistic. However, this pattern has yielded little winter weather anywhere east of the Mississippi. Going to have to see several model runs before believing this could be anything of significance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 For the record, WJHL also mentioned next week as something to be watched. However, I am having a hard time being pumped about a system one week away - especially with the model variability lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I am highly doubtful of any storm producing any sizeable snowfall amounts next week. There is simply very little cold air to work with...Consider me a skeptic on this one. Of course somebody could always get a quick thump, but honestly I don't see a widespread event. I am shocked, to say the least, that Morristown made the comments they made in their evening weather analysis - shocked. They are probably the most conservative weather outlet in the southeast. I am almost 100% certain that gets amended(removed) by the morning crew. I think the low moves through, but as....cold rain. I am normally not overly pessimistic. However, this pattern has yielded little winter weather anywhere east of the Mississippi. Going to have to see several model runs before believing this could be anything of significance. The pattern you speak of will be completely different next week. With that said, you are right there isn't a ton of true arctic air to work with here. But it has the potential to be a be a very dynamic storm which can sometimes overcome otherwise marginal conditions. Guarded optimism for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 For the record, WJHL also mentioned next week as something to be watched. However, I am having a hard time being pumped about a system one week away - especially with the model variability lately. I'm not pumped about it either, just aware that there's a decent chance. I think everyone is happy there is actually something to talk about for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 The pattern you speak of will be completely different next week. With that said, you are right there isn't a ton of true arctic air to work with here. But it has the potential to be a be a very dynamic storm which can sometimes overcome otherwise marginal conditions. Guarded optimism for now. This. I'm generally agnostic about next week's snow chances, at least for now. But, history has shown that when the words "dynamic" and "marginal" are thrown around to describe a threat, those of us in the valley of east TN seldomly cash in. Having said that, I'm stocking up on popcorn because it will be interesting to watch unfold regardless of the outcome. Finally something to track, etc. etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 The euroENS at 6hr intervals show a pretty sizeable snowstorm from hour 186 on over western/northern NC into Virginia. Don't really agree with how it portrays the SLP and I have a hard time seeing this system climb the coast as much it's showing if there i such strong blocking. Ya the way this storm seems to be moving the mountains could cash in on some pretty good snows. Some of our best snows here have been witht he temp from 28 to about 32 degrees. Real heavy wet stuff. We will see though. There is still a lot to work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 The pattern you speak of will be completely different next week. With that said, you are right there isn't a ton of true arctic air to work with here. But it has the potential to be a be a very dynamic storm which can sometimes overcome otherwise marginal conditions. Guarded optimism for now. I will believe the pattern has changed when I see it. The PNA, AO, NAO are still forecast to be the same. It depends on where the aforementioned low goes. It could tank the NAO or slide off the coast and we go very warm. The pattern change IMO is still three to four weeks off. If the storm, however unlikely, can ride the coast we have a chance at a pattern change. I don't think we are as warm as we have been, but move to slightly above. KTRI recorded +17 and + 20 temps during the past few days. Surely it won't be that warm. And I agree with Hickory, at least we have something to watch. Could be worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 This. I'm generally agnostic about next week's snow chances, at least for now. But, history has shown that when the words "dynamic" and "marginal" are thrown around to describe a threat, those of us in the valley of east TN seldomly cash in. Having said that, I'm stocking up on popcorn because it will be interesting to watch unfold regardless of the outcome. Finally something to track, etc. etc. So true about your words in quotes...I have seen it once. Something to behold, but only once. The Plateau is underrated as a geographical feature that can wreck havoc on weather models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I will believe the pattern has changed when I see it. The PNA, AO, NAO are still forecast to be the same. It depends on where the aforementioned low goes. It could tank the NAO or slide off the coast and we go very warm. The pattern change IMO is still three to four weeks off. If the storm, however unlikely, can ride the coast we have a chance at a pattern change. I don't think we are as warm as we have been, but move to slightly above. KTRI recorded +17 and + 20 temps during the past few days. Surely it won't be that warm. And I agree with Hickory, at least we have something to watch. Could be worse. I bolded what I think is the most important statement here. Common sense would say with both of these in the negative territory it would pretty much force a colder pattern and now the MJO is jumping in to help. If there is a pattern change afoot at least we basically have something to back it up unlike last year which was just a train wreck with a horrible pacific just for good measure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I bolded what I think is the most important statement here. Common sense would say with both of these in the negative territory it would pretty much force a colder pattern and now the MJO is jumping in to help. If there is a pattern change afoot at least we basically have something to back it up unlike last year which was just a train wreck with a horrible pacific just for good measure. MJO cannot be overstated as a player, I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 So true about your words in quotes...I have seen it once. Something to behold, but only once. The Plateau is underrated as a geographical feature that can wreck havoc on weather models. I agree about next week - but then again I would never expect a snow producer in December (I reside in the "Below 40 Zone"). However, since I moved back here 4 years ago I have seen at least three events that fall into that category. 2 in March and 1 in January. If a ULL is powerful enough, it can and will generate it's own crazy cold source and overwhelm whatever marginal obstacles apply. Next week, in my opinion, will not be one of those situations. But it isn't a mythical unicorn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 18z ensemble mean trended a little farther south with the storm next week, blocking over eastern Canada is a little stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I'm already seeing a big change from last year, even warm as it just was. NWS is giving me 34 with a slight chance of rain after 4 am. Dry as it is, if it is more than virga, it wouldn't surprise me to hear some sleet at the beginning if the column is cold enough to cool down enough. At least I'm close to some timing..unlike all of last year. I could really believe in some damming around XMas. I think the first thing I'll see of consequence is zrain. Give me some more good rains from the south, and I'll begin to believe it's possible to find something frozen out there aways. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 No surprise that this run of the GFS show the ULL further north and weaker with little precip :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 No. Cold. Air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 This run is a swing and a miss.....The problem is, there is tooooo much energy flying around everywhere. This is NOT going to be an easy system to forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 No. Cold. Air. Who needs cold air? we have hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 This run is a swing and a miss.....The problem is, there is tooooo much energy flying around everywhere. This is NOT going to be an easy system to forecast. Delta I just made the statement that the GFS always drops in a sinker in the middle of the game, Do you agree ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Canada isnt even that cold. Look how far north the -10C line is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.