IWC Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Frosty, I think everyone is poised and waiting.For the good things to come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 With the amount of time you keep up with the weather as I do, I'm sure you won't be caught off guard. I pay attention for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Haven't looked at the models for a few days, but why is everyone excited about this look? This blows, east based -NAO, I guess the PNA is probably neutral but the AO is positive. Let's hope the 12z GEFS doesn't look like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 The euro weeklies look pretty zonal through mid-december and then start to hint at a pattern change as we near Christmas. At this point I think December is likely to average above normal through for the first two or three weeks, but thereafter there are good chances for some changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 This GFSENS day 7-8 look is a good one over the AO areas. Very nice warm anomalies showing up. If you factor in the eventually lag time 5-10 days, it would put a trough over the east probably sometime near the 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Looks like our fantasy storm is sent to Mexico this run...on to the next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Haven't looked at the models for a few days, but why is everyone excited about this look? This blows, east based -NAO, I guess the PNA is probably neutral but the AO is positive. Let's hope the 12z GEFS doesn't look like this. I don't think there is any "real" excitement for the most part. Some, I know, have expressed excitement over the fact that the GFS is throwing out some snow in the far extended range...which rarely happened last year. But that is hardly worth getting excited over with regards to how that plays out in eventuality. And you're right, the first two weeks of Dec do not look promising for wintry wx in these parts. Will that change as we get closer to Christmas? Maybe, maybe not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Canada looks fairly snowed in. When it finally does go cold here, it should do so with dazzling efficiency. Excellent point. When the pattern changes eventually, that snow pack will help immensely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 12z Euro Days 7-10 is not warm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 12z Euro Days 7-10 is not warm... But is it cold? Thanks, TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 But is it cold? Thanks, TW Actually, the set-up looks cold. Cold keeps pressing south in an elongated trough. Only thing that is fishy is Alaska stays cold. I've said this before, it is rare that Alaska and us are cold. Full continental trough. First I have seen this from it in a while. Will wait a few runs to see if it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 The cold will eventually arrive here but not the 10-15th as earlier predicted IMO. Good thing is the change should occur right at the Winter Solstice and, whenever the pattern changes around that time, we normally have an extended period of weather which that change (be it warm or cold) will signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Big temperature spike over the pole today at the 30hPa level,almost gets it back to normal.We'll see if it helps with HLB later on but it's the biggest jump this autumn. Still watching at 10hPa though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 12z Euro sends NAO in the tank: I'm sticking with my guns on an ice/mix event between 12/13-12/17 for CAD areas east of apps. To much cold/snowpack will be built up in Canada and along the US border. As the pattern changes there will probably be some sort of posotive almost east/west trough that should promote some overruning precip. Any HP in NE will have more than enough cold air to work with. Yesterday the GFS spit this suggestion out verbatim. Today 12z still shows potential for my crapshoot LR forecast. But would wind up being cold rain in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Folks...I love where the models are heading. Only a fool would have to disagree. It all starts this week with the dislodging of the massive vortex off the West Coast. Give it 7-10 days for the realignment to take place and then we'll start having actual storms to follow. The GFS is already hinting at it with the storm that its wanting to form around the 17th-18th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Folks...I love where the models are heading. Only a fool would have to disagree. It all starts this week with the dislodging of the massive vortex off the West Coast. Give it 7-10 days for the realignment to take place and then we'll start having actual storms to follow. The GFS is already hinting at it with the storm that its wanting to form around the 17th-18th. I agree. Even a cold rain beats the current drought. Long term looks win-win with a wetter pattern. We are likely not going to have everything show up perfect...winter weather chances will only continue to rise with climatology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Actually, the set-up looks cold. Cold keeps pressing south in an elongated trough. Only thing that is fishy is Alaska stays cold. I've said this before, it is rare that Alaska and us are cold. Full continental trough. First I have seen this from it in a while. Will wait a few runs to see if it holds. I'm pretty sure that Alaska is cold nonstop all winter, so I'm pretty sure Alaska and the south can be cold at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 I'm pretty sure that Alaska is cold nonstop all winter, so I'm pretty sure Alaska and the south can be cold at the same time. Relative to norms, Einstein. And if you want to split hairs, Juneau doesn't get that cold during winter. And if you need evidence look no further than last winter. Record snow and cold in Alaska, record warmth on the East coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 I'm pretty sure that Alaska is cold nonstop all winter, so I'm pretty sure Alaska and the south can be cold at the same time. Argue with CPC. ENSO state temp relationships... Warm episode: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/impacts/warm.gif Cold episode: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/impacts/cold.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Not sure where else to post this - What happened to the Beta model site? I can't run Allan's normal site due to Java plug in restrictions; the Beta site was working great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 I don't think there is any "real" excitement for the most part. Some, I know, have expressed excitement over the fact that the GFS is throwing out some snow in the far extended range...which rarely happened last year. But that is hardly worth getting excited over with regards to how that plays out in eventuality. And you're right, the first two weeks of Dec do not look promising for wintry wx in these parts. Will that change as we get closer to Christmas? Maybe, maybe not. I really have to wonder where the expectation for a wintry December ever came from. I understand the need for some who feel it their responsibility to maintain sensibility by posting comments that don't feed anything to the hype monster, but there are plenty of people genuinely excited and confident about winter. Speak for yourself on that matter please. It's time to get the H over last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Folks...I love where the models are heading. Only a fool would have to disagree. I have to disagree. Oh damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 18z GFS/12z Euro suggest severe wx potential across the southeast towards next weekend/the beginning of the following week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 18z GFS/12z Euro suggest severe wx potential across the southeast towards next weekend/the beginning of the following week. Yawn... severe weather in December climo wise usually doesn't deliver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 2, 2012 Author Share Posted December 2, 2012 Not sure where else to post this - What happened to the Beta model site? I can't run Allan's normal site due to Java plug in restrictions; the Beta site was working great! It's back up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Long range doom still w/ us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 3, 2012 Author Share Posted December 3, 2012 Alright, no more 300+ hr GFS storm reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Alright, no more 300+ hr GFS storm reports. Lol I knew that was coming sooner or later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Yawn... severe weather in December climo wise usually doesn't deliver. But if it does deliver, it's usually in the Southeast (12/16/00 and 12/5/53 for example). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXeastern Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 I have to disagree. Oh damn. Lmao I agree with Andy..severe wx certainly looks possible Dec 10th-12th given the setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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