franklin NCwx Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Someone is going to be sorely disappointed on Christmas. Those images look horrible. Just because there is some blue near the area does not mean it is in any way, shape or form a cold pattern. I guess you are when it's raining at your house when everyone is getting snow! I guess your right. look at that torch over Chapel Hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Someone is going to be sorely disappointed on Christmas. Those images look horrible. Just because there is some blue near the area does not mean it is in any way, shape or form a cold pattern. Horrible? Hmmm...that might be overstating it just a bit... Maybe? Doesn't look Arctic cold, but looks much better than the current pattern. So, not ideal, but horrible is a bit of a stretch. I'm sure someone would be able to come up with a horrible map for you if you really wanted one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 really got to get those neg numbers off the west coast. The pac is gonna ruin this winter if it doesn't get to changin'. I hope the MJO can do its work. But we also need to get some cold air on this side of the pole. Lots of wishes on my list this xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 12z is going to have a different solution....low brewing in the GOM with a really loose possible ULL coming hot on it's heels. This should be interesting. No cold air in the SE yet. This probably won't cut the mustard. We'll wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 12z is going to have a different solution....low brewing in the GOM with a really loose possible ULL coming hot on it's heels. This should be interesting. No cold air in the SE yet. This probably won't cut the mustard. looks like it will be a rain to snow event on the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 The 500mb low sitting over Maine is critical for this system to have a chance to work out. That's what slows the pattern down and allows this to cutoff and sit over the deep south, instead of cutting into the midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 looks like it will be a rain to snow event on the backside. Even so - it's a shot side better than where we were a year ago. I have no doubt this winter will be at least somewhat of an improvement. If we could score a sustained cross polar flow, I would say thank you and never look back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 lol more snow at hr276...franklin wx FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Some encouragement on 12z GFS for NW NC next Wednesday...let's hope it holds and as Burger said 'cuts the mustard' How many here cut their own mustard greens in their summer garden? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 while lkely still too warm at the surface. still fun to look at. rates would be pretty high though if it managed to fall as snow. if only it was hr60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 It's interesting, the 50/50 low then phases with this day 7 system and another behind it comes in as snowstorm number 2. The AO is doing its dirty work. HOpefully the euro shift to this solution. It's about 500 miles North of this right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Beach snow in NC day 10/11? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 If only it wasn't 192hr. That gives me a good foot of snow here in SW Va. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 12z GFS continues to pound the idea of pattern change, and kicking it off with a potential winter storm for the SE/Mid Atlantic region. This previous wave then falls back into this storm and forms a full-fledged 50/50 low. Meanwhile in the pacific, as hinted at on last night's 0z run, a UL drops well south and cuts off from the main flow looking beyond D+10, firing up the STJ (recent tanking of the SOI portends to this idea). This effectively destroys the persistent +EPO/-PNA setup we've been dealing with the past few weeks. If this comes to pass, expect a more persistent cold pattern with arctic fronts finally making their way down to our neck of the woods. In addition, the active STJ will increase our threats for winter weather. The first threat we've been seeing with the "kick-off" system a week from now is coming in before any real cold is established so it's going to be a borderline event that's going to hinge on dynamic effects, if it even comes to pass at all. After this storm, cold air should arrive in more abundance, along with a more stormier pattern as the Pacific may finally be on our side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 12z GFS continues to pound the idea of pattern change, and kicking it off with a potential winter storm for the SE/Mid Atlantic region. This previous wave then falls back into this storm and forms a full-fledged 50/50 low. Meanwhile in the pacific, as hinted at on last night's 0z run, a UL drops well south and cuts off from the main flow looking beyond D+10, firing up the STJ (recent tanking of the SOI portends to this idea). This effectively destroys the persistent +EPO/-PNA setup we've been dealing with the past few weeks. And that ushers in the true arctic air. First we get the west based -nao then the epo turns -, just in time for Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 And that ushers in the true arctic air. First we get the west based -nao then the epo turns -, just in time for Christmas. Yes, see amended post. As HKY said, hopefully the Euro can come in as bullish as the GFS. If so, my confidence will double. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 12z GFS continues to pound the idea of pattern change, and kicking it off with a potential winter storm for the SE/Mid Atlantic region. This previous wave then falls back into this storm and forms a full-fledged 50/50 low. Meanwhile in the pacific, as hinted at on last night's 0z run, a UL drops well south and cuts off from the main flow looking beyond D+10, firing up the STJ (recent tanking of the SOI portends to this idea). This effectively destroys the persistent +EPO/-PNA setup we've been dealing with the past few weeks. If this comes to pass, expect a more persistent cold pattern with arctic fronts finally making their way down to our neck of the woods. In addition, the active STJ will increase our threats for winter weather. The first threat we've been seeing with the "kick-off" system a week from now is coming in before any real cold is established so it's going to be a borderline event that's going to hinge on dynamic effects, if it even comes to pass at all. After this storm, cold air should arrive in more abundance, along with a more stormier pattern as the Pacific may finally be on our side. Can I get an Amen! It looks like things are finally changing for the better. Can't wait to get rid of that +EPO/-PNA. It's going to be hard to wait for Christmas to get here when the real fun should begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Canadian is weak and north with the Day 7 event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Canadian is weak and north with the Day 7 event typical.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Canadian is weak and north with the Day 7 event Known bias. Tw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Known bias. Tw Its all going to depend on how the models handle the upcoming storm, how strong it gets, where it bombs, can it be a pseudo 50/50? Can it create the confluence we need? This stuff isn't going to get nailed down anytime soon I fear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Known bias. Tw Of note, the 12z GGEM actually squashes everything to the south...... a little impulse rides north through the OHV but the confluence kills the storm...... not buying it, but actually a good sign for the SE/MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 GFS ensemble mean for next weeks storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 And now for more blocking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Blocking or not the Aleutian high and the west coast trough are still big problems on the images posted above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 And now for more blocking! What blocking? The slight ridge way out over western Alaska, positively tilted down into the NW Pacific? Yeah... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 What blocking? The slight ridge way out over western Alaska, positively tilted down into the NW Pacific? Yeah... Yeah, those signals arent that great for most of the SE........ better for the MA/NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 What blocking? The slight ridge way out over western Alaska, positively tilted down into the NW Pacific? Yeah... Still a torch on Christmas in Chapel Hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 The models spit out something different in regards to blocking everyday. Not sure why people make such a big deal to prove or discount blocking at this point. 12z GFS ensembles are pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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