burgertime Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Actually it just looked to my eyes that the Euro is trending a bit towards the GFS....If you look at the 12z it had the moisture taking a much more northern track. I think Robert summed it up best when he said you would seed the models start trending towards a more suppressed solution. Either way it looks like it's GAME ON! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Finally, something to calm the cliff divers. I'm following your lead burger.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Actually it just looked to my eyes that the Euro is trending a bit towards the GFS....If you look at the 12z it had the moisture taking a much more northern track. I think Robert summed it up best when he said you would seed the models start trending towards a more suppressed solution. Either way it looks like it's GAME ON! Perhaps, and maybe they'll meet somewhere in the middle, who knows? But I am just cautiously pessimistic at this time, but reserve the right to change my mind to "cautiously optimistic" in the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Perhaps, and maybe they'll meet somewhere in the middle, who knows? But I am just cautiously pessimistic at this time, but reserve the right to change my mind to "cautiously optimistic" in the coming days. Certainly, right now a lot of folks are basing their hopes off of one days worth of model runs with little support from other models. It's also of note that it seems the last few ULL's that have ran through all seem to go north west at the last minute and only benefited folks in TN (nothing wrong with that jut not our backyard). However if you remember a few days ago the Euro at the end of it's run had an ULL rolling from TX to TN....now the GFS is picking it up, plus given what Robert and Brandon have said it seems to be right on cue. My guess is the models are seeing this big flip and do not have a good handle on temps...of course this is a weenie guess so only time and science will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 One thing I like is that an active pattern seems to be settting up starting this weekend into next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 The differences between the Euro and GFS really begin to show themselves late this weekend at 500mb. Euro holds back more energy and digs it further into the Southwest US before ejecting out. This is something that is a known error bias in some situations with the Euro, so we will see. I spent a lot of time on this in my video today....it's posted on my page, linked below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Matt, Always a pleasure to watch you video. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Matt, Always a pleasure to watch you video. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 The differences between the Euro and GFS really begin to show themselves late this weekend at 500mb. Euro holds back more energy and digs it further into the Southwest US before ejecting out. This is something that is a known error bias in some situations with the Euro, so we will see. I spent a lot of time on this in my video today....it's posted on my page, linked below. Likewise, the GFS has a tendency to be too suppressed/east, if I'm not mistaken, with storms traversing the south/southeast/east coast. I'd be a little more optimistic this morning about this event if I lived in the mountains or parts of the TN valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 The differences between the Euro and GFS really begin to show themselves late this weekend at 500mb. Euro holds back more energy and digs it further into the Southwest US before ejecting out. This is something that is a known error bias in some situations with the Euro, so we will see. I spent a lot of time on this in my video today....it's posted on my page, linked below. Thanks for the great info Matt! It will certainly be interesting to see how this all develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Likewise, the GFS has a tendency to be too suppressed/east, if I'm not mistaken, with storms traversing the south/southeast/east coast. I'd be a little more optimistic this morning about this event if I lived in the mountains or parts of the TN valley. That is definitely true with the GFS, at least with the old physics. But yes, what you saw with the 0z run was likely the furthest south solution possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 The differences between the Euro and GFS really begin to show themselves late this weekend at 500mb. Euro holds back more energy and digs it further into the Southwest US before ejecting out. This is something that is a known error bias in some situations with the Euro, so we will see. I spent a lot of time on this in my video today....it's posted on my page, linked below. Thanks for posting this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Definitely something to watch without question. As you said it is enough to say step back from that ledge my friend. It is good to be on the model watch once again. Either way it does appear the goal posts are in the same place they were earlier and given the forecasted state of the AO an MJO it makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Actually it just looked to my eyes that the Euro is trending a bit towards the GFS....If you look at the 12z it had the moisture taking a much more northern track. I think Robert summed it up best when he said you would seed the models start trending towards a more suppressed solution. Either way it looks like it's GAME ON! The bigger picture here is that you have model agreement (although not precise) of a change in circumstance. The timing and placement of a low is off - but suggested by both. But more importantly, we are seeing a result of having different players on the field and in different positions. Not a dynasty team per se, but a team that can make some noise in the wild card race. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Nice to wake up and read some of the positive aspects of the guidance yesterday be more firmly established today. I have very little optimism in these upcoming storms other than some nicely needed rain (If they're even shown in upcoming runs). What encourages me the most is the firmer establishment of a new pattern and potential pattern flip. With the better likelihood of the west based -NAO and the MJO entering a better phase affecting the pacific, it seems like the pattern is going to become more conducive for winter weather at the end of December; right before January. That's great news and perfect timing. That's what I was looking for all along. I too though don't want to get too optomistic as we were looking at this pattern change at the end of the November I believe and it never materialized. But my interest is peaked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Best snowstorms I've ever seen in WNC were with temps 32-33. I have seen good snowstorms in wnc at 34, kinda whiteout conditions, snowing very hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Nice to wake up and read some of the positive aspects of the guidance yesterday be more firmly established today. I have very little optimism in these upcoming storms other than some nicely needed rain (If they're even shown in upcoming runs). What encourages me the most is the firmer establishment of a new pattern and potential pattern flip. With the better likelihood of the west based -NAO and the MJO entering a better phase affecting the pacific, it seems like the pattern is going to become more conducive for winter weather at the end of December; right before January. That's great news and perfect timing. That's what I was looking for all along. I too though don't want to get too optomistic as we were looking at this pattern change at the end of the November I believe and it never materialized. But my interest is peaked. Exactly - with the blaring negative signals the indices have been showing, it was only a matter of time before the trends became more apparent. My only real concern for this winter will be whether or not those negative indices can sustain through the coming months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Nice to wake up and read some of the positive aspects of the guidance yesterday be more firmly established today. I have very little optimism in these upcoming storms other than some nicely needed rain (If they're even shown in upcoming runs). What encourages me the most is the firmer establishment of a new pattern and potential pattern flip. With the better likelihood of the west based -NAO and the MJO entering a better phase affecting the pacific, it seems like the pattern is going to become more conducive for winter weather at the end of December; right before January. That's great news and perfect timing. That's what I was looking for all along. I too though don't want to get too optomistic as we were looking at this pattern change at the end of the November I believe and it never materialized. But my interest is peaked. Good post. Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Paging Mr. Bob. Mr. Bob, please pick up the nearest courtesy telephone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Paging Mr. Bob. Mr. Bob, please pick up the nearest courtesy telephone. Thats FUNNY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I'm not gonna fill the thread up with maps but the GFS and Euro ensembles continue with the blocking they have shown for the last few days. It looks as good, if not better this morning, than it did yesterday. Even at 240 on the euro ensembles there is some slight ridging over the Rockies with a west based -nao and a trough in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I'm not gonna fill the thread up with maps but the GFS and Euro ensembles continue with the blocking they have shown for the last few days. It looks as good, if not better this morning, than it did yesterday. Even at 240 on the euro ensembles there is some slight ridging over the Rockies with a west based -nao and a trough in the east. By all means, fill 'er up and add some images for those of us that can't access till tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 DGEX posts should probably go in the banter. I am liking this new stormy pattern we are about to enter...lets see if moisture continues to cut west of the Apps tho. I want to see at least 1 storm produce appreciable precip amounts east of the mountains before jumping in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 By all means, fill 'er up and add some images for those of us that can't access till tonight. Here you go sir! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Snow on Christmas Eve? The pattern sure does look good from next Monday on towards the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Block party anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Block party anyone? Awesome! Thank you, good fellow! Certainly looks much, much better. I haven't been able to look at any maps, so I wonder how the cold air source looks. From the comments, it looks to be depleted for the next couple of weeks, if I'm reading it right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Good write-up from Allan... "As has been the case for the past few weeks, if one stops and just looks at the 11-15 day ensemble forecasts, you could conclude that overall, it looks like a generally cool pattern may set up for a good part of the US. Generally the 3 major ensembles (GFS, ECMWF, GGEM) show a mean trough setting up along and just off the East coast with a retrograding positive height anomaly into Greenland and then northern Canada. This is generally a cool signal for the US. It seems the problem is that as we progress these 11-15 day forecasts into the day 8-10 range they tend to lose their intensity and the persistent trough/negative anomalies in western Canada/Gulf of Alaska tend to win the battles and a mild pattern is the result. IT is possible that this influencer though could wane by the days leading up to Christmas if the GFS/GGEM Ensembles are right and this could allow for the EPO to turn negative which could allow for a colder pattern to develop. However, the ECMWF Ensembles are much less gung ho about this keeping a general, (albeit weaker),+EPO pattern around through Christmas, even though the same model keeps it cool in general in the east. My thinking is this right now. I think we will see a generally cooler pattern for the Eastern US by 12/20 or so that will likely last through Christmas and perhaps the rest of December. However, as of now, this does not look to be a frigid pattern, as I see no believable evidence yet, that we will get cross-polar flow and a drain of true arctic air into the eastern US. If the GFS/GGEM Ensemble trend of building ridging across Alaska, and into NW Canada and the North Pole is correct, we could see a colder pattern develop as we head into January. However, if the ECMWF Ensemble is correct, and this trend does not occur, then we will see continued troughing in Alaska, NW Canada, and the Gulf of Alaska (+EPO), and perhaps a warm pattern re-establish by early January. Right now confidence is low. We look to not get any assistance from an El Nino this winter, as daily/weekly values are neutral and not likely to rapidly warm soon." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Someone is going to be sorely disappointed on Christmas. Those images look horrible. Just because there is some blue near the area does not mean it is in any way, shape or form a cold pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Awesome! Thank you, good fellow! Certainly looks much, much better. I haven't been able to look at any maps, so I wonder how the cold air source looks. From the comments, it looks to be depleted for the next couple of weeks, if I'm reading it right. Until the heights build over Alaska and the west it won't be too terrible cold. Until that happens when the epo goes - then it's Arctic air time. But, with the west based -nao giving us a suppressed storm track we should stay a little below normal with hopefully some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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