HKY_WX Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 The pattern is moving into a very similar setup to the Christmas storm from 2010. Below is the 5h pattern from that Dec 23 to Dec 26. it's virtually identical to the 18z gfsENS 500mb anomaly map predicted for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 The pattern is moving into a very similar setup to the Christmas storm from 2010. Below is the 5h pattern from that Dec 23 to Dec 26. it's virtually identical to the 18z gfsENS 500mb anomaly map predicted for next week. Should I go ahead and start a thread on it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Should I go ahead and start a thread on it? Let's not get ahead of ourselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Should I go ahead and start a thread on it? I think you can pull us thru again, Start it!!! The CFSv2 has been showing snow around Christmas time for a sometime... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 the ECMWF presents quite a blocky pattern by day 10. The GFS first started showing some ridging around Greenland and eastern Canada a few days ago, valid at this time, so now it has support from the supposed almighty. Not to bash models, but a few days ago one thing that caught my eye in the longer range was the Atlantic cold vortex just southeast of Greenland and how large it was. It is probably going to help build or carve out the blocking ridge in and around Greenland, but so far it's not all that impressive. What it will do though is cause shorter wavelengths from the systems coming in from the West Coast in this strong -PNA pattern, so things will get pushed south and get jammed up on the East coast. You can see that on the operationals, but not the ensembles, so be looking for some wild swings on the operationals in coming days. The sky is the limit on p-types by early next week's storm. ECMWF has been inching ever more south and east with that storm, and by then could be using that strong Eastern Storm to create a new 50/50, which accentuates the blocky Canada/Greenland, meaning the next system also takes an even further south track. It's an unusual flow and a very unusual alignment of indices coming up, so the models are playing catch up to the indices, rather than vice versa. Even with -PNA and -NAO coming up, there could be stormy conditions on both coasts, and we dont' see that much with just enough cold air to work with on some parts of the upper Southeast /Apps/East Coast. I wouldn't be surprised to see the ECMWF make a really big deal of the East Coast storm early next week in future runs. The ensembles all have strong neg. anomalies here by then and decent blocking in Baffin Island, a climo good spot. Cold air will be at a premium south of I-40 but with the trends and models catching on to this possible 50/50 low and -NAO pattern, they could trend a little cooler, but probably not much. Depending on what happens with that early next week storm, the next storm could be very interesting as well, with a very strong -NAO pattern and 50/50 placed just right...storminess is definitely coming. So it's a far cry from last Winter with temps coming down to closer to average, as opposed to the upper 70s daily. Still think the Southeast will average above normal temps overall in most of the SE when December closes though, but the last of the month could be the polar opposite of the first of the month. Thx, but plenty of time for things to fall apart again lol. The models have been extremely volatile and I don't see any reason they won't continue until the blocking up in Canada/ Greenland actually sets up and changes the pattern. These two posts gave me tingles It will be interesting to see what both models show this next week or so. Nothing better than a little model madness as winter begins in the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 These two posts gave me tingles It will be interesting to see what both models show this next week or so. Nothing better than a little model madness as winter begins in the south. Yeah, its nice when the two models are both showing two significant storms not in fantasy 300+ hours and two great mets are posting often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 CFS has week 3 emp anomalies in the -5 range. Things are looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 the pattern could totally reverse (wouldn't surprise me). Some medium range stuff is showing that. I've been all for a somewhat supressed flow coming up and the models are now explicitly starting to show that. It's still going to be tough at first to get cold enough air much below central ARK-TN-NC line but the trends are definitely in that direction. Even forecasting days 5 and 6 will become a problem soon until the pattern in Canada gets established. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 A whiff of snow and the room comes ALIVE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I think you can pull us thru again, Start it!!! The CFSv2 has been showing snow around Christmas time for a sometime... Not feeling it just yet. . That might have been a one in a million thing. But I am liking what I'm seeing over the last few cycles. I think a pattern shift or even a reversal is possible, but it might play out just a little slower than what we're seeing today, at least. Looking forward to finding out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Great discussion on here today. Seems like things maybe looking up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Well, the GFS, via Meteostar was giving me two inches around this time frame some days ago, and on que I pulled in about an inch and a half today. So Goofy, might seem goofy sometimes, but I find it will hone in on a general storm pattern, and get pretty close. I'm curious to see what Wed. does, and early next week. I still think get the rains first, and the cold will come. If these next two systems don't stay so suppressed or fritter away, and give me more gold, I think the future looks bright for winter weather with a roller coaster, and some good timing come Jan. and Feb. Some 1 to 3 inch rains into 33 degrees, if nothing else. Got to break this drought, and that's the way to do it. Winter rains in a normal winter. And looking down the dim depths of my winters past, this month, so far, isn't unusual to me. Just another warmish early December out of many. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Beautiful ULL swinging through the southeast at hour 180. Looks like possible snow from MS to AL to GA. Maps to follow, Surface temps are way too warm but you never know when you get underneath or on the back side of one of these things with soem cold 850's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Wow that really is a bowling ball ULL, looks wonderful... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Wow, if you guys can post hr 192 for everybody. Low cranking off the Carolina coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 Pretty to look at.. not much cold air around but it's still a snowstorm for parts of the upper SE. Sfc temps not great so it's mostly a rain to snow type of scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 0z (7 pm) that would be perfect timing for Georgia and North Carolina... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Best snowstorms I've ever seen in WNC were with temps 32-33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 The whole run is very promising with an active pattern and reinforcing cold shots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 The entire pattern turns a bit wild and crazy after the 12/19 storm. Almost pulls off a rollover ridge as the GFS cuts off a big UL south of the GOA. If this feature does come to pass, should it continue to trend further south, that should completely reverse the pattern of a +EPO/-PNA which we've been stuck with recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 What an interesting setup and it's within a reasonable timeframe. It's worth keeping tabs on over the next several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 GFS has been honking for a coastal in this time frame for several days. It just keeps taking different paths to get to one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 The entire pattern turns a bit wild and crazy after the 12/19 storm. Almost pulls off a rollover ridge as the GFS cuts off a big UL south of the GOA. If this feature does come to pass, should it continue to trend further south, that should completely reverse the pattern of a +EPO/-PNA which we've been stuck with recently. I was going to comment on that. It's probably related to the MJO phase 1 we're moving towards. Looks like those talking about that were right when it comes to possibly altering the pacific pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 But in my mind there's really only one reason we're going to have a pattern change and it's this: Delayed but not denied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 I was going to comment on that. It's probably related to the MJO phase 1 we're moving towards. Looks like those talking about that were right when it comes to possibly altering the pacific pattern. Without question. The SOI hit -48 today.. huge drop...it began nosediving a couple of days ago. That starts the countdown.. give it 10 to 14 days to feel the full effects with the MJO bursting onto the scene with a the STJ revving up again... GFS sees the chaos about to ensue during that time frame. That's an active STJ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 How nice of the snow to miss TN I think it's possible for us to have a low move through at this time frame - but the timing of any cold air and the track of the low is going to be hard to pinpoint. I'd like to see what the ensembles show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXeastern Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 But in my mind there's really only one reason we're going to have a pattern change and it's this: Delayed but not denied. Agreed..it was only a matter of time until the pattern reflected such deeply negative values. Its not really surprising to me tho.. in my eyes the first couple of weeks of December were just a hiccup in a blocky pattern that has been established most of the fall. It will be interesting to see how deep the next negative spike gets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 If anyone remembers, 2009 started off similarly in a very warm fashion, albeit a bit earlier, late November before getting going in early December. I wouldn't rule something like that out given the ridiculously deep values of the AO and persisten blockiness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 DR NO is in the house.Major difference between the GFS an EURO...especially by the time you get to hour 192 either way, as others have alluded to, there is a lack of a true arctic air source for this thing to work with, or so it seems at this moment. Going to be difficult to see any meaningful snow in the SE without it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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