WilkesboroDude Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Really bad storm just came through here. I estimate at least 60 mph. Trees down everywhere, power is out. Unbelievable. obs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 obs? Radar data backs his statement up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowpressure Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 obs? NWS Statement also backs obs. GAZ033-042>044-052-053-101800- 1212 PM EST MON DEC 10 2012 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 50 MPH WINDS IN CARROLL... COWETA...DOUGLAS...HEARD AND FULTON COUNTIES UNTIL 100 PM EST... AT 1210 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM WINSTON TO CENTRALHATCHEE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH ARE LIKELY AS THESE STORMS MOVE ACROSS CARROLL...COWETA...DOUGLAS...HEARD AND FULTON COUNTIES THROUGH 100 PM EST. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE FROLONA... ROOSTERVILLE...CENTRALHATCHEE...WINSTON...LAKE VAL-DO-MAR...SEATON LAKE...LOWELL...TREASURE LAKE...CLEM...ROOPVILLE...FRANKLIN... FAIRPLAY...DOUGLASVILLE...PLANT WANSLEY AND BILL ARP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Can you elaborate on what this shows? Having a trough in the southeast allows for colder weather and often allows more low pressures to form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Lr has gone back and forth for over a week now. Almost every run is different. I dont trust the +pna after day ten on the GFS..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Lr has gone back and forth for over a week now. Almost every run is different. I dont trust the +pna after day ten on the GFS..... It's actually been pretty consistent. The problem is that consistency has always been at around 360 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Yes but today was the first good pna I remember over the last week. You are right its always shown something past 360 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Yes but today was the first good pna I remember over the last week. You are right its always shown something past 360 I think it is the first run to show the plus pna but it continues with the west based - nao and connecting the nao block with the Aleutian block as it has for a few runs now. The 12z actually was run out of burger's basement and did one better. It hooked up those two blocks with the block that has been over Eurasia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 I think it is the first run to show the plus pna but it continues with the west based - nao and connecting the nao block with the Aleutian block as it has for a few runs now. The 12z actually was run out of burger's basement and did one better. It hooked up those two blocks with the block that has been over Eurasia. Yep it's a good one....now we gotta keep the look and have it show up at around 200 hours. We'll see how the Euro looks and the Euro ENS. Right now the Euro is out to 216 and has some cold air funneling into most of the Conus...no huge trough though just mainly seasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 The individual members for the 12z GFS don't look too bad actually...grasping for straws here I know but I thought I'd share the graphic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 10, 2012 Author Share Posted December 10, 2012 Wow, the SOI has had its bottom fall out.. now at -48 for the day. In a couple of weeks, expect El Nino-ish conditions with a stronger STJ making its presence known. http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 I guess the euro must have stunk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 The euro was good... Every model now shows the mjo getting off its butt and helping out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 I guess the euro must have stunk? Not for the middle and west tennessee posters.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 12z euro ensemble day10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Seems like all were doing is wishing our lives away, 10 days at a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 WxUSAF posted this....interesting analogs showing up... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38141-december-mid-long-range-discussion/page__view__findpost__p__1906676 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 WxUSAF posted this....interesting analogs showing up... http://www.americanw...ost__p__1906676 Yep, like white christmas 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 WxUSAF posted this....interesting analogs showing up... http://www.americanw...ost__p__1906676 Which analogs specifically are you referring to? The MJO signals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Just looking at the maps (ensembles), it screams Miller B to me. Maybe overrunning in the midsouth/north carolina areas if we can tap the subtropics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Which analogs specifically are you referring to? The MJO signals? The analogs are showing 12/2010, which was the great boxing day storm. A few other years in the analogs were snowy for central NC too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Not for the middle and west tennessee posters.... Been noticing that on the Euro around that timeframe. GFS looks to have a shortwave coming through around the same time...just not as amped up as the Euro and more of a southern route. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Seems like all were doing is wishing our lives away, 10 days at a time. I know right. Then 10 days later nothing will happen and everyone will see something again 240+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 I know right. Then 10 days later nothing will happen and everyone will see something again 240+. That's not that far removed from a typical winter around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 the ECMWF presents quite a blocky pattern by day 10. The GFS first started showing some ridging around Greenland and eastern Canada a few days ago, valid at this time, so now it has support from the supposed almighty. Not to bash models, but a few days ago one thing that caught my eye in the longer range was the Atlantic cold vortex just southeast of Greenland and how large it was. It is probably going to help build or carve out the blocking ridge in and around Greenland, but so far it's not all that impressive. What it will do though is cause shorter wavelengths from the systems coming in from the West Coast in this strong -PNA pattern, so things will get pushed south and get jammed up on the East coast. You can see that on the operationals, but not the ensembles, so be looking for some wild swings on the operationals in coming days. The sky is the limit on p-types by early next week's storm. ECMWF has been inching ever more south and east with that storm, and by then could be using that strong Eastern Storm to create a new 50/50, which accentuates the blocky Canada/Greenland, meaning the next system also takes an even further south track. It's an unusual flow and a very unusual alignment of indices coming up, so the models are playing catch up to the indices, rather than vice versa. Even with -PNA and -NAO coming up, there could be stormy conditions on both coasts, and we dont' see that much with just enough cold air to work with on some parts of the upper Southeast /Apps/East Coast. I wouldn't be surprised to see the ECMWF make a really big deal of the East Coast storm early next week in future runs. The ensembles all have strong neg. anomalies here by then and decent blocking in Baffin Island, a climo good spot. Cold air will be at a premium south of I-40 but with the trends and models catching on to this possible 50/50 low and -NAO pattern, they could trend a little cooler, but probably not much. Depending on what happens with that early next week storm, the next storm could be very interesting as well, with a very strong -NAO pattern and 50/50 placed just right...storminess is definitely coming. So it's a far cry from last Winter with temps coming down to closer to average, as opposed to the upper 70s daily. Still think the Southeast will average above normal temps overall in most of the SE when December closes though, but the last of the month could be the polar opposite of the first of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 You could see this model jump coming. When you see the AO numbers being so low and the models picking up on the destruction of the PV in the day 7-10 timeframe, it woudn't be long before a more classical blocking signal started showing up. The CFS2 now shows basically a 2010-11 pattern through the end of the run with no let up. After this sizable storm system that is likely day 7 or 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Great write up Robert! Right on cue the 18z is spitting out an interesting solution for next weekend with what looks like a closed low trekking across the deep south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 You could see this model jump coming. When you see the AO numbers being so low and the models picking up on the destruction of the PV in the day 7-10 timeframe, it woudn't be long before a more classical blocking signal started showing up. The CFS2 now shows basically a 2010-11 pattern through the end of the run with no let up. After this sizable storm system that is likely day 7 or 8. Good call too. Looks like going out on a limb for the Christmas forecast is paying off. Looking at the 18z that would be fun if it verified. While on the surface it's not spitting out snow thickness and 850's I think would be there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Great write up Robert! Right on cue the 18z is spitting out an interesting solution for next weekend with what looks like a closed low trekking across the deep south. If I'm not mistaken, the earlier run at that same time had the energy going for burritos. Good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Good call too. Looks like going out on a limb for the Christmas forecast is paying off. Looking at the 18z that would be fun if it verified. While on the surface it's not spitting out snow thickness and 850's I think would be there. Thx, but plenty of time for things to fall apart again lol. The models have been extremely volatile and I don't see any reason they won't continue until the blocking up in Canada/ Greenland actually sets up and changes the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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