tarheelwx Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 GFS shows a little snow event at 7 days while Euro in same time frame has highs in the 50s/60s. Hmmm, I wonder which would will be right? #threeguesses #drno Agree but at least there's something remotely interesting to follow. Tw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Surface temps? Since the cold digs so quickly, by the onset of the majority of the precip the 2m temps are at freezing or below from CTL to NE coast of NC, so verbatim this run is pretty good for Central NC or the triangle area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Well no one seems to have posted it but the Euro shows a totally different solution with a really strong apps runner and temps no where close. 6z was close with the solution at 00z but has it off the coast. This should probably be watched more closely. GFS is adamant about the storm for this weekend and Euro has been hit or miss but is slowly coming around to the GFS it seems. It might be a bit weenish but the Euro isn't always right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Well no one seems to have posted it but the Euro shows a totally different solution with a really strong apps runner and temps no where close. 6z was close with the solution at 00z but has it off the coast. This should probably be watched more closely. GFS is adamant about the storm for this weekend and Euro has been hit or miss but is slowly coming around to the GFS it seems. It might be a bit weenish but the Euro isn't always right. yeah, obviously it's something to watch for now. One significant problem I see (other than it's 7-8 days away) is a lack of a true cold air source. Ultimately this is probably not going to pan out well for most of us, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Just saw on fb DT said this is bulls*** it wont happen. Lol. How many times has he been wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 yeah, obviously it's something to watch for now. One significant problem I see (other than it's 7-8 days away) is a lack of a true cold air source. Ultimately this is probably not going to pan out well for most of us, but we'll see. Yea with no real model consensus even with it self on the 6z run it's probably just a burp....but the LR GFS has been consistent with something going on in this time frame so it might not be totally out to lunch. Guess we'll know by say Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Blocking!!! http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zgfsensembles500mbHeightAnomalyNH276.gif http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zgfsensembles500mbHeightAnomalyNH372.gif continued on the 6z too Now the Euro only goes out to 240 publicly http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens/00zECMWFENS500mbHeightAnomalyNH240.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Blocking!!! http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zgfsensembles500mbHeightAnomalyNH276.gif http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zgfsensembles500mbHeightAnomalyNH372.gif continued on the 6z too Now the Euro only goes out to 240 publicly http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens/00zECMWFENS500mbHeightAnomalyNH240.gif And the pacific is still a trainwreck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 And the pacific is still a trainwreck. Are you looking for the perfect pattern? Did you even see what the GFS ensembles are wanting to do in the Pacific? Just to add, I think some re wanting the perfect pattern to fall into place. We can still have below normal temps and get snow with a -pna. If and I mean If the block retrogrades over to the Davis Straits we will have chances. I think the Pacific will improve towards the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Blocking!!! http://raleighwx.ame...nomalyNH276.gif http://raleighwx.ame...nomalyNH372.gif continued on the 6z too Now the Euro only goes out to 240 publicly http://raleighwx.ame...nomalyNH240.gif Those warm anomalies look great over Greenland! In my opinion, the pacific also doesn't look too bad in these charts either. I'm cautiously optimistic as we continue our journey into winter. It's great that the ensembles are pushing this blocking and not just a single run of a model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 The pacific won't matter if we get that kinda -AO/-NAO setup. We won't have mega cold, but we'll have snow chances. Whether or not we can capitalize is a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Allan Huffman @RaleighWx Cooler Eastern US likely for 2nd half of December, major storm early next week http://shar.es/6FKCY via #weather @sharethis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Mega cold usually means very dry for us and you end up with a suppressed storm track. I'm already watching a close call to my south on Wednesday. Could really use the rain around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 The pacific won't matter if we get that kinda -AO/-NAO setup. We won't have mega cold, but we'll have snow chances. Whether or not we can capitalize is a different story. The block is in a great place but the aleutian high and the west coast trough are deal breakers imo. Not to mention one of those maps is a 372 and the other two are 10 days plus. The fact that they all show a bad pac is concerning even at 10 to 16 days out considering that setup has dominated to date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 I think the safest thing to do, given the persistence of the patter this winter, and gasp, last winter, is to lean in the direction of the dominant pattern to date. At some point it'll flip or break down for a time, but so far, blocks in the 10+ timeframe have either failed to materialize or have been weaker than intitially advertised, and the bad Pacific has dominated the pattern with warmth. As long as the bad Pac still shows up throughout the model runs, even though strong blocking shows up, it makes the most sense to accept the bad Pac as true and reject the strong, west-based blocking as false....if and until such features start to appear differently in shorter lead times or until something else starts to excert a stronger influence on the pattern, i.e. the stratosphere, the mjo, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 This is true, of course. Usually how "good" pattern changes work for us is that the GFS shows it in the 10-12 day range for about 2-3 weeks, then it starts showing up on the 8-10 day Euro for 1-2 week, then there is another week delay, then we start getting some shots. So, I'd say early/mid-January is a good bet. The block is in a great place but the aleutian high and the west coast trough are deal breakers imo. Not to mention one of those maps is a 372 and the other two are 10 days plus. The fact that they all show a bad pac is concerning even at 10 to 16 days out considering that setup has dominated to date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 I appreciate this post as well -- hope we don't start seeing posts like this criticized as being "Debbie Downers" or anything. We wouldn't be on this board if we weren't rooting for winter weather, but rooting for it and forecasting it are mutually exclusive. I think the safest thing to do, given the persistence of the patter this winter, and gasp, last winter, is to lean in the direction of the dominant pattern to date. At some point it'll flip or break down for a time, but so far, blocks in the 10+ timeframe have either failed to materialize or have been weaker than intitially advertised, and the bad Pacific has dominated the pattern with warmth. As long as the bad Pac still shows up throughout the model runs, even though strong blocking shows up, it makes the most sense to accept the bad Pac as true and reject the strong, west-based blocking as false....if and until such features start to appear differently in shorter lead times or until something else starts to excert a stronger influence on the pattern, i.e. the stratosphere, the mjo, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 I think the safest thing to do, given the persistence of the patter this winter, and gasp, last winter, is to lean in the direction of the dominant pattern to date. At some point it'll flip or break down for a time, but so far, blocks in the 10+ timeframe have either failed to materialize or have been weaker than intitially advertised, and the bad Pacific has dominated the pattern with warmth. As long as the bad Pac still shows up throughout the model runs, even though strong blocking shows up, it makes the most sense to accept the bad Pac as true and reject the strong, west-based blocking as false....if and until such features start to appear differently in shorter lead times or until something else starts to excert a stronger influence on the pattern, i.e. the stratosphere, the mjo, etc. The first image is 0hrs off the oz ensemble mean. Looking at the 500mb chart the Pacific looks okay, Ridge on the west coast. but look up in eastern Canada low heights. The nao is very east based so we are under a ridge. Now the second image is the same run of the Euro ensemble mean for 168 hours. The pna drops off very negative but the Greenland block retrogrades west over the Davis strait area. Now look at the heights in the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Mega cold usually means very dry for us and you end up with a suppressed storm track. I'm already watching a close call to my south on Wednesday. Could really use the rain around here. Definitely agree with this (although I don't expect any mega cold stints apart from the possibility of a day or two shot at some point). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Now roll forward to 240 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 6z GFS 192 hours horrible Pacific blocking over eastern Canada, same as the Euro deep trough in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 But look at the 850mb temp anomalies (Euro Ens). They are above normal from hr120 on forward, dropping to normal at hr240...all the below normal anomalies are way to the west, and not moving SE. The pacific ridge placement is fine at hr zero, but problematic at hr240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 But look at the 850mb temp anomalies (Euro Ens). They are above normal from hr120 on forward, dropping to normal at hr240...all the below normal anomalies are way to the west, and not moving SE. The pacific ridge placement is fine at hr zero, but problematic at hr240. They are more above normal today than at anytime during the end of the run when the block starts getting established. And today the Pacific is the best it will look compared to the entire run.Today then out to 240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Now the GFS today compared to 240 good pacific with no west based block to a crappy pacific with a west based block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Meant that the 0hr Pacific ridge placement is fine as long as there is a good west -NAO in place (which there isn't at hr0). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Well, at least we have some stuff to follow. Still, I don't think we have a real shot at anything until that Pacific trough weakens. The pattern might be more active, but if it doesn't produce snow, I don't care. We'd have to get something really good to overpower the Pacific with the way it is now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Mega cold usually means very dry for us and you end up with a suppressed storm track. I'm already watching a close call to my south on Wednesday. Could really use the rain around here. Well, Kyle, the good news is they are suppressed, not disappeared, lol. In Jan/Feb I'd be happy to see the track running them down there, because I know they'll probably pull north closer to the day. And the cold, cold that would push them down there isn't on the map, so maybe we end up getting the full brunt mid week, and late weekend/early next week A gulf tap is a gulf tap even if it benefits Macon and Valdosta and not so much Griffin and Faytteville...at least it is a step in the right direction even if it verifies as depicted today, instead of 4 days ago. Today's event will tell us a lot about the next two...maybe. Already it looks on radar like we get shafted, but if it verifies better, then I'll be feeling more positive about later. Ok, grasping at straws here, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 I'm happy to report the 12z GFS continues it's stellar look in the LR with lots of cold for the SE....however the storm that popped up last night...not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Well, at least we have some stuff to follow. Still, I don't think we have a real shot at anything until that Pacific trough weakens. The pattern might be more active, but if it doesn't produce snow, I don't care. We'd have to get something really good to overpower the Pacific with the way it is now. what pac trough? Right now the PNA is basically neutral or slightly negative. If we had a strong west based NAO right now we'd be in business but that's our problem currently. PNA is also progged to go neutral as we get well into December so as long as we get that -NAO -ao combo we'll be good to go. Those two should overwhelm any non-positive PNA in place. That's fairly basic but that's how I understand it, anyone correct me if I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Really bad storm just came through here. I estimate at least 60 mph. Trees down everywhere, power is out. Unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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