December Forecast Discussion

[tarheelwx]

Actually the 12z GFS looked like pretty normal mid DEC conditions for the next couple of weeks. Normal means no wintry precip for most. And, the GFS does actually show a couple of chances for the mountains and cad regions. Next Tuesday/Wednesday look interesting as well as a bit further in the lr.

TW

[WilkesboroDude]

Actually the 12z GFS looked like pretty normal mid DEC conditions for the next couple of weeks. Normal means no wintry precip for most. And, the GFS does actually show a couple of chances for the mountains and cad regions. Next Tuesday/Wednesday look interesting as well as a bit further in the lr.

TW

I posted 250 hour snow map in banter...12z coming back w/ chances.

Still going w/ the idea of crap up to Dec.17th. We have a few more warm-ups to go through...that are not being discussed.

[Bevo]

I posted 250 hour snow map in banter...12z coming back w/ chances.

Still going w/ the idea of crap up to Dec.17th. We have a few more warm-ups to go through...that are not being discussed.

That may be due to the nature of said "warm ups". Exactly what kind of warm ups are you referring to?

[WilkesboroDude]

That may be due to the nature of said "warm ups". Exactly what kind of warm ups are you referring to?

These brief transit spells after 40 degree highs...where we go back to 60-70+ degrees for three days at a time. We are about to enter one again now.

CPC also going with 40%+ for above normal temps in both their 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks.

[Bevo]

These brief transit spells after 40 degree highs...where we go back to 60-70+ degrees for three days at a time. We are about to enter one again now.

CPC also going with 40%+ for above normal temps in both their 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks.

Understood. I don't know that subsequent spells will equate to quite those temps as we progress through the month, but they are there none the less.

[Jon]

These brief transit spells after 40 degree highs...where we go back to 60-70+ degrees for three days at a time. We are about to enter one again now.

CPC also going with 40%+ for above normal temps in both their 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks.

Reality slaps you in the face when you compare the current 6-10 with 2010. We were already in the desired pattern at that time though, so keep in mind, warm spells will continue until (if) we get set up into a pattern that benefits us...so much of what the CPC is putting out in their outlooks (including the 8-14 day) doesn't surprise me. It will likely change by 8 days and the 6-10 day map then will look different than the 8-14 day now. If that makes sense.

[burgertime]

Correct me if I'm wrong but did the Euro look promising to anyone else? Seasonal temps with a big storm heading into Newfoundland which could help set up blocking? Doesn't a big storm blowing up heading towards Greenland help set up a PV where we need it? Or am I totally out to lunch on that?

[griteater]

Correct me if I'm wrong but did the Euro look promising to anyone else? Seasonal temps with a big storm heading into Newfoundland which could help set up blocking? Doesn't a big storm blowing up heading towards Greenland help set up a PV where we need it? Or am I totally out to lunch on that?

It does indeed look very good at hr240 from an NAO standpoint, with a deep low off the NE coast and positive anomalies building west/SW of Greenland...but to counter that, you kind of have the opposite extreme on the west coast with a deep trough digging down the coast which will favor ridging in the central U.S.

[Wow]

It does indeed look very good at hr240 from an NAO standpoint, with a deep low off the NE coast and positive anomalies building west/SW of Greenland...but to counter that, you kind of have the opposite extreme on the west coast with a deep trough digging down the coast which will favor ridging in the central U.S.

Trough west of HI.. any energy diving into the west coast will be transient. Won't amplify and push up a downstream ridge. Just a big bowl of a trough across the US. The ridge north of HI will keep any low from deeping over the GOA. You can see how the jet quickly tightens as waves move down the backside of the trough.

Let's see if that trough over E Siberia can progress over the Aleutians. That would be our ticket. If the ensembles are right, we'll be entering Phase 1 of the MJO in the next 10 days.. such a pattern corresponds to such a feature.

[griteater]

Trough west of HI.. any energy diving into the west coast will be transient. Won't amplify and push up a downstream ridge. Just a big bowl of a trough across the US. The ridge north of HI will keep any low from deeping over the GOA. You can see how the jet quickly tightens as waves move down the backside of the trough.

Let's see if that trough over E Siberia can progress over the Aleutians. That would be our ticket. If the ensembles are right, we'll be entering Phase 1 of the MJO in the next 10 days.. such a pattern corresponds to such a feature.

Yeah, that's probably more accurate with respect to the bowl trough across the U.S., but the ridge axis is too far off the west coast to my liking...a good look on the Atlantic side nevertheless.

[HKY_WX]

Euro caved to the GFS finally. We have agreement on big time greenland block setting up by the 15th. Let's see if we can get consistency.

[jmundie]

GFS has some semblance of a miller A beginning at hour 240 - I went to the ensembles for kicks and giggles, and what do you know, there's pretty decent support for the thing. Looks like more than half of the members have a southern stream system bombing as it heads up the east coast, with good snow.

something to watch at least.

[HKY_WX]

The EC ensembles have turned dramatically colder from hour 200 well past the end of the run. Basically the 850 line is at or below NC during this entire time w/ a strong cold blast coming the week of christmas.

[packbacker]

The EC ensembles have turned dramatically colder from hour 200 well past the end of the run. Basically the 850 line is at or below NC during this entire time w/ a strong cold blast coming the week of christmas.

Last 10 days or so of Dec on the CFS look cold for the east, although it's been flip flopping quite a bit.

[griteater]

Last 10 days or so of Dec on the CFS look cold for the east, although it's been flip flopping quite a bit.

Yeah, noticed this morning the CFS had a nice NAO block on there for week 3 and was thinking that a lot of the modeling was coming around to that solution in the extended...but believe at your own risk, as usual at that time range.

[WilkesboroDude]

Well there comes the snow cover south of the border...Winter Storm Watches issued for South Dakota, ND, Minnesota, etc...

Special weather statements now flying in Texas for light snow/pattern change discussion as well.

[Cold Rain]

Well there comes the snow cover south of the border...Winter Storm Watches issued for South Dakota, ND, Minnesota, etc...

Special weather statements now flying in Texas for light snow/pattern change discussion as well.

Obs?

[HKY_WX]

http://www.examiner.com/article/long-range-forecast-for-united-states

Here's my 3 week forecast up to Christmas. I'm tired of waiting on model consistency. So i went w/ my gut on this one.

[WilkesboroDude]

http://www.examiner....r-united-states

Here's my 3 week forecast up to Christmas. I'm tired of waiting on model consistency. So i went w/ my gut on this one.

I am in agreement.

Meh' through Dec. 17th like I have been saying. Something to watch near that date or shortly after for winter weather tho.

[burgertime]

http://www.examiner....r-united-states

Here's my 3 week forecast up to Christmas. I'm tired of waiting on model consistency. So i went w/ my gut on this one.

I've felt the last few runs of the OP GFS have been consistent and pretty much agrees with you. The last couple of runs have had good a good look for the Carolinas even if the cold is transient, I'll take my chances with that look though it will probably really only be good for your area and points north of I-40.

[Met1985]

http://www.examiner....r-united-states

Here's my 3 week forecast up to Christmas. I'm tired of waiting on model consistency. So i went w/ my gut on this one.

Nice I hope this works out and thanks for the update.

[beanskip]

Rooting for you BIGTIME, but I'm afraid this is wishful thinking.

Don't see any indications that the Pacific will get right for us -- and now the Euro shows the -NAO breaking down.

My gut says it's going to be 2013 before we see a pattern favorable for snow.

http://www.examiner....r-united-states

Here's my 3 week forecast up to Christmas. I'm tired of waiting on model consistency. So i went w/ my gut on this one.

[GaWx]

Being that a GOA trough and Aleutian ridge is the polar opposite of the best scenario to get the E US cold, it continues to be difficult for me to get at all excited about cold. Terrible Pacific that the -NAO/-AO blocking has lots of trouble overcoming. To sum it up, without a ridge near the west coast of the US, it is usually quite difficult to get a good dump of Arctic air directed into our area even with good blocking. I'm glad I wrote off Dec. as this is not disappointing. Regardless, even though this is not at all what I prefer, I'm content as there are always good things about mild in Dec. like good walking wx, lower heating bills, and cold in Dec. pretty rarely producing sig. wintry precip.

[Carvers Gap]

Being that a GOA trough and Aleutian ridge is the polar opposite of the best scenario to get the E US cold, it continues to be difficult for me to get at all excited about cold. Terrible Pacific that the -NAO/-AO blocking has lots of trouble overcoming. To sum it up, without a ridge near the west coast of the US, it is usually quite difficult to get a good dump of Arctic air directed into our area even with good blocking. I'm glad I wrote off Dec. as this is not disappointing. Regardless, even though this is not at all what I prefer, I'm content as there are always good things about mild in Dec. like good walking wx, lower heating bills, and cold in Dec. pretty rarely producing sig. wintry precip.

The pattern over Alaska is similar to last winter don't you think? Until that changes, the pattern we are in is the pattern for the next 3-4 weeks at least. No doom and gloom, that is just the way it appears. Very Nina-ish.

[nchighcountrywx]

The pattern over Alaska is similar to last winter don't you think? Until that changes, the pattern we are in is the pattern for the next 3-4 weeks at least. No doom and gloom, that is just the way it appears. Very Nina-ish.

+1

ECMWF Operational overnight is disappointing.

Latter December is now at risk....about time to move on to January but my intuition says we have our predominant winter pattern for the core of winter.

Let's hope something shifts and we don't have to grasp at straws all winter.

[GaWx]

The pattern over Alaska is similar to last winter don't you think? Until that changes, the pattern we are in is the pattern for the next 3-4 weeks at least. No doom and gloom, that is just the way it appears. Very Nina-ish.

The Pacific is sort of Nina-ish I guess. At least it isn't a real torch here thanks to the really good blocking to our north, which is allowing fairly zonal W to E flow as opposed to there being a pig ridge and constant warm SW flow here. So, it looks near to slightly warmer than norm. We do look to get some WSW flow here, which would be really good for better rainfall. I know that getting rain as opposed to wintry precip. in met. winter is considered evil by some, but the fact is that the vast majority of SE precip. isn't wintry outside of the mtns. So, the bright side for cold lovers is that it looks close to normal to a little above as opposed to a torch and record highs as we get into midmonth. Good news for rain lovers at any time of year like Tony is that it looks wetter.

[CandymanColumbusGA]

The Pacific is sort of Nina-ish I guess. At least it isn't a real torch here thanks to the really good blocking to our north, which is allowing fairly zonal W to E flow as opposed to there being a pig ridge and constant warm SW flow here. So, it looks near to slightly warmer than norm. We do look to get some WSW flow here, which would be really good for better rainfall. I know that getting rain as opposed to wintry precip. in met. winter is considered evil by some, but the fact is that the vast majority of SE precip. isn't wintry outside of the mtns. So, the bright side for cold lovers is that it looks close to normal to a little above as opposed to a torch and record highs as we get into midmonth. Good news for rain lovers at any time of year like Tony is that it looks wetter.

Lol... It has been 70 or above every day in December. A good 8-15 degrees above average. I don't know about you... But that's a torch to me. Also, the northeast, where I'm currently vacationing, has seen some balmy weather with mid 60s in NYC on Tuesday when I was there and low 70s in DC. It's been warm for much of the country.

I'll admit right now that I haven't been keeping up with the models over my vacation, but at least I'll be bringing some colder weather down south with me! Actually, this will be more seasonable weather, nothing really cold. I'm still not seeing a whole lot of hope for REAL cold weather, but, like you mentioned, rainier days are ahead. Hopefully the southern stream can work some magic for us, rain-wise, and our friends to the north can get something that times nicely with some cold air. Other than that, I will gladly welcome the average temperatures next week as it has been WAY overdue for my neck of Georgia.

[griteater]

[GaWx]

Lol... It has been 70 or above every day in December. A good 8-15 degrees above average. I don't know about you... But that's a torch to me.

Clarification: I meant it doesn't look like a torch pattern as we get to midmonth+. I was commenting on the medium range forecast as opposed to the recent past being that this is a forecast disc. thread. My bad for saying it isn't a torch as that is not good wording. I was using present tense referring to what the present models are showing for the medium range. No question it has been torchy early this month. Also, these next three days do look fairly torchy though not near records.

[HKY_WX]

The pattern over Alaska is similar to last winter don't you think? Until that changes, the pattern we are in is the pattern for the next 3-4 weeks at least. No doom and gloom, that is just the way it appears. Very Nina-ish.

That was the pattern in 10-11 as well, if it wasn't for the -AO we would have torched that winter. The-PDO regime is a long lasting dominate cycle, however, it is not as bad as some make it out to be here. We're just seeing a very extreme case of it for the last few weeks. A strong -AO can overcome the pacific and in some cases even change the PNA pattern. People forget, some forecasters went very warm that winter based on the PDO/la-nina combo and busted big.