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December Forecast Discussion

Wow

By Wow,
in Southeastern States

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HKY_WX

HKY_WX

Posted
Posted

hour 240 EURO snow accum

.1 from Asheville to Greensboro and north

.5 from Taylorsville to maybe Reidsville and north

1.0 from Wilkesboro to Mount Airy

2.0 from Sparta north

3.0 north-west chunk of VA

6.0 northern VA

9.0 south-east PA

How much for philly?

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

Posted
Posted

Miller B type development on ECMWF for about 2 days now. This would mostly affect MidAtlantic and Northeast, from northern NC northward, but it's far from set yet. Too much drama going on in and around Alaska and the models have different ideas of how much PNA ridging to develop, and the GFS looks overdone on it's northern latitude blocking (but if it's not and the ECMWF changes after days 10, watch out). Right now I like the idea of a strong positive tilt trough, similar to GFS but maybe not that strong somewhere around mid month. It's really a crap shoot after 7 days for the gulf of Alaska region, what happens there really affects everyone in the lower 48 downstream, and it's hard to say, other than the northern tier will probably turn very cold by the second week or shortly afterwards. If there is a positive tilt trough, then usually thats similar to a flat Bermuda ridge in the Southeast, with shallow cold on both sides of the Apps, meaning ice north of that baroclinic boundary. If I had to say, I'd say the TENN Valley side would be colder than east of the Apps, except maybe DC northward, but that's a total guess, and its out beyond 10 days anyway. The GFS really uses this region and boundary to create lots of overrunning events and rainfall in the Southeast though through the next 15 days, but its only doing that because of the big PNA ridge and downstream positive tilt trough (southwest flow aloft Southeast). Guess we'll see how it shakes out, but atleast things are changing, and it could be a major turn toward Winter, especially with all that northern latitude blocking showing up later on.

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POWERSTROKE

POWERSTROKE

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Can't be possible. No winter in December this year. As i said the other day several well known mets seeing the change that everybody said wasnt going to happen. This is not to say snow is coming but a definite change toward winter. Around the 10th to mid month is what they have been saying. Robert said a few days ago that he thought within next ten days. Looks like the change is coming in the pattern.

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

The GFS really uses this region and boundary to create lots of overrunning events and rainfall in the Southeast though through the next 15 days, but its only doing that because of the big PNA ridge and downstream positive tilt trough (southwest flow aloft Southeast). Guess we'll see how it shakes out, but atleast things are changing, and it could be a major turn toward Winter, especially with all that northern latitude blocking showing up later on.

I like the door number 2 sceniaro, with the souith west flow bringing in the rains. So...it backs off the cold some while, I don't care this early. I just want to see a rainy pattern set up, then bring down the cold. I'd take normal temps this winter, with the roller coaster, and damming into a southwest flow, often and strong, lol. A cad life is a fine life, adrift on a normal sea :) T

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

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BINGO!!!! I don't trust anything the euro don't agree with. Not that the euro is without flaws, but it is the king! so we need it on board to get excited!!!

Ahem. Where have you been for the last 23 months? True it nailed Sandy, but it also took Debby right into Texas as it was making landfall in the Florida panhandle. Also, both Springs in the last 2 years guess which model I used for a week in advance to predict Severe outbreaks to nearly the county? GFS. ECMWF left a LOT to be desired. Same for the big derechos and MCC events, almost all of them, that affected Ohio Valley to Tennessee Valley and NC too. Even the small events like this recent upper low that went across the deep south was only on NAM and GFS, from pretty far out. Of course damming events GFS surface is absolutely on target in NC, SC and GA especially with ECMWF being up to 10 degrees too warm, every time practically, but we haven't had many of them. Don't forgot the big July heat wave where it had 5 degrees too warm C, from a few days out. GFS was almost exactly right at 850 from a week out. Plus the big cool eastern US June cool wave. ECMWF didn't really have that. I do agree it's better with big events probably and most folks don't pay attention to day to day small events, but I am a big stickler on those, and I definitely disagree with your assessment it's king completely. But now that we're entering a new pattern, it probably will resume it's usual supremacy, as GFS overdoes some things like supression and cold advection, but it doesn't change the fact of the last 23 months approximately, in my estimation.

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IWC

IWC

Posted
Posted

Can't be possible. No winter in December this year. As i said the other day several well known mets seeing the change that everybody said wasnt going to happen. This is not to say snow is coming but a definite change toward winter. Around the 10th to mid month is what they have been saying. Robert said a few days ago that he thought within next ten days. Looks like the change is coming in the pattern.

I'm waiting for this to materialize So I guess were both sitting on the edge of our seats.

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BIG FROSTY

BIG FROSTY

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Posted

Ahem. Where have you been for the last 23 months? True it nailed Sandy, but it also took Debby right into Texas as it was making landfall in the Florida panhandle. Also, both Springs in the last 2 years guess which model I used for a week in advance to predict Severe outbreaks to nearly the county? GFS. ECMWF left a LOT to be desired. Same for the big derechos and MCC events, almost all of them, that affected Ohio Valley to Tennessee Valley and NC too. Even the small events like this recent upper low that went across the deep south was only on NAM and GFS, from pretty far out. Of course damming events GFS surface is absolutely on target in NC, SC and GA especially with ECMWF being up to 10 degrees too warm, every time practically, but we haven't had many of them. Don't forgot the big July heat wave where it had 5 degrees too warm C, from a few days out. GFS was almost exactly right at 850 from a week out. Plus the big cool eastern US June cool wave. ECMWF didn't really have that. I do agree it's better with big events probably and most folks don't pay attention to day to day small events, but I am a big stickler on those, and I definitely disagree with your assessment it's king completely. But now that we're entering a new pattern, it probably will resume it's usual supremacy, as GFS overdoes some things like supression and cold advection, but it doesn't change the fact of the last 23 months approximately, in my estimation.

Ok Doc!!! I see I was wrong with my statement (king)? lol... But we'll see how it all unfolds! I don't keep all those records of which model caught what first, I was just stating what i've read for many years that it is the go to model, but like I said it has flaws also none of them are right all the time but the euro has had a pretty good track record over the years.but on pattern changes in the winter months I still rather have it on board... I wouldn't bet against much! But I think it will jump on board fully soon!!! But what do I know? NOTHING!!! I'm just along for the ride...

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Bevo

Bevo

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Ok Doc!!! I see I was wrong with my statement (king)? lol... But we'll see how it all unfolds! I don't keep all those records of which model caught what first, I was just stating what i've read for many years that it is the go to model, but like I said it has flaws also none of them are right all the time but the euro has had a pretty good track record over the years.but on pattern changes in the winter months I still rather have it on board... I wouldn't bet against much! But I think it will jump on board fully soon!!! But what do I know? NOTHING!!! I'm just along for the ride...

Except in split flow situations, the Euro has been no great victor since Winter '10-'11. I still don't understand why we follow with such fervent allegiance.

And if you're waiting on December to suddenly burst with winter wonderment - well, I have to ask - exactly when did that become an expectation in the SE in the first place?

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Poimen

Poimen

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Posted

EURO and GFS are worlds apart at day 10 with respects to the Pacific pattern...which as we all know has implications for us. 0Z GFS has a ridge off the west coast while the EURO still has the EPAC trough. Also, neither global model is indicating any hint of significant -NAO blocking. Given the overall pattern, the EURO is likely closer to reality and thus any prospects for wintry type weather in the 10-16 day period should be tempered, IMO.

00zeuro500mbHGHTNA240.gif

gfs_namer_240_1000_500_thick.gif

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

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Needless to say...the 6z GFS from 240 to the end of the run is very interesting to say the least. I really like the evolution of how the cold air drops down by day 10...and then we get a little STJ action going on around the 16-17th of December.

Yep. I'd like to see the Euro start to get on board with a favorable sustained pattern before getting too excited. But at least things look a bit more interesting than they did a week ago.

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POWERSTROKE

POWERSTROKE

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Ok Doc!!! I see I was wrong with my statement (king)? lol... But we'll see how it all unfolds! I don't keep all those records of which model caught what first, I was just stating what i've read for many years that it is the go to model, but like I said it has flaws also none of them are right all the time but the euro has had a pretty good track record over the years.but on pattern changes in the winter months I still rather have it on board... I wouldn't bet against much! But I think it will jump on board fully soon!!! But what do I know? NOTHING!!! I'm just along for the ride...

Euro and gfs are always different until within five days most of the time. However the pattern that is coming was first shown on the Korean and now on the Japanese. Robert posted just a week to ten days ago what it was showing before euro and gfs. Also dt and jb showed the same. So i say nine are perfect

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BIG FROSTY

BIG FROSTY

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Posted

Euro and gfs are always different until within five days most of the time. However the pattern that is coming was first shown on the Korean and now on the Japanese. Robert posted just a week to ten days ago what it was showing before euro and gfs. Also dt and jb showed the same. So i say nine are perfect

The Korean and Jap has been doing good from what i've read, even Robert said the Korean has been pretty good last couple years.. Like I said I'm not going to get excited about a pattern change until the big E is in the house!!! Hope that the GFS is right and I do think things will turn around this month, just waiting on easy E.

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