rduwx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Throws a bomb out there at 204, and goes right over Charlotte. Of course after the model truncates but verbatim this would hammer WNC, Tn, and a good portion of Ga...Sorry RDU, nothing but a good rain storm on this run. Edit: Sorry my SC peeps, part of y'all get in on this also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 More fun coming at 264, another storm in the gulf... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 On 12/19/2012 at 4:37 AM, Southern Snow said: More fun coming at 264, another storm in the gulf... Now that is the perfect track for RDU...Too bad it's at hr 312. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Is this storm plausible from this pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 On 12/19/2012 at 4:39 AM, rduwx said: Now that is the perfect track for RDU...Too bad it's at hr 312. Good news for those hoping for more chances after xmas thru new years though. This run was a BIG step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 The way it gets to this solution is crazy. Gonna be fun watching all these wild outputs the rest of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 On 12/19/2012 at 4:33 AM, Southern Snow said: MUCH diff look at 192...wow...lp over sw ga. flooding rains. EDIT: at 204 the lp over eastern nc!! 977mb low. wnc getting some wintry action...ga getting rocked by that stage it looks occluded, which means there MIGHT be a chance for cold air to filter in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 On 12/19/2012 at 4:40 AM, mackerel_sky said: Is this storm plausible from this pattern? I would say so...The main difference w/ this run is the system didn't close off over Tx. Over the years I've never seen a closed ULL in Tx. make it to the east coast. They always go inland. Now I'm not saying that can't happen, I'm just saying I've never seen it since following the models. This run of the gfs didn't close the system off and therefore was able to bring it further east before going negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 On 12/19/2012 at 4:40 AM, mackerel_sky said: Is this storm plausible from this pattern? I think its possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 On 12/19/2012 at 4:41 AM, Southern Snow said: Good news for those hoping for more chances after xmas thru new years though. This run was a BIG step in the right direction. Yeah, that was a fun run. We didn't have a run like that all of last year. I sure did miss it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I wish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Well...at least for the North Carolina Mountains, our drought would be nearly eliminated. 72 hour QPF (ending @216) nearing 7 inches in the Smokies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 On 12/19/2012 at 4:48 AM, valkhorn said: I wish. This track would be one of the few situations where ya'll in the valley don't get downsloped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Possible? Sure. Unstable GFS to keep changing? Definite yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 On 12/19/2012 at 4:43 AM, rduwx said: I would say so...The main difference w/ this run is the system didn't close off over Tx. Over the years I've never seen a closed ULL in Tx. make it to the east coast. They always go inland. Now I'm not saying that can't happen, I'm just saying I've never seen it since following the models. This run of the gfs didn't close the system off and therefore was able to bring it further east before going negative. Agree that's it's rare, but it happened with both 02/26/04 and 03/02/10 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2004/us0225.php http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2010/us0301.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 On 12/19/2012 at 4:36 AM, rduwx said: Throws a bomb out there at 204, and goes right over Charlotte. Of course after the model truncates but verbatim this would hammer WNC, Tn, and a good portion of Ga...Sorry RDU, nothing but a good rain storm on this run. Edit: Sorry my SC peeps, part of y'all get in on this also. Like I always say "It's an honor just to be nominated". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 On 12/19/2012 at 5:02 AM, griteater said: Agree that's it's rare, but it happened with both 02/26/04 and 03/02/10 http://www.meteo.psu...2004/us0225.php http://www.meteo.psu...2010/us0301.php Thanks griteater...I forgot about 3/10 until you mentioned it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 On 12/19/2012 at 4:36 AM, rduwx said: Throws a bomb out there at 204, and goes right over Charlotte. Of course after the model truncates but verbatim this would hammer WNC, Tn, and a good portion of Ga...Sorry RDU, nothing but a good rain storm on this run. Edit: Sorry my SC peeps, part of y'all get in on this also. Yep. It has the look of one of those storms where it is pushing 60 in Raleigh while Greensboro is around freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 On 12/19/2012 at 3:13 AM, packbacker said: Here you go... Thanks for posting this. I forgot to mention this earlier but the CFS did quite well for December and will hopefully nail the January outlook. Obviously the January outlook means a much different pattern for much of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 00z euro looks like it digs the s/w more south than 12z for sure at 144hr. EDIT: at 162 shes still digging, similar to the gfs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 On 12/19/2012 at 5:04 AM, GaffneyPeach said: Like I always say "It's an honor just to be nominated". Lol, I hope I live long enough to see a string of goofy range bombs verify At least it went back positive, instead of getting worse than the last run. I used to think the 0z was the only one that counts, but after reading that all the runs are of equal value as far as input, I realize now it is capable of pulling 18z crazy storms out of the hat too. But some time, the law of averages says, the long range will verify a couple of bombs like this, and I'd love to see it. Maybe two 93's and a 73 Macon bowling ball one right after another. Robert speaks of a string of amazing storms like that in NC, in the 60's or 80's , I think. I remember seeing photo's of snow up to roofs. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Euro trended towards the 00z GFS for sure, not quite as far east as the gfs though. Still cold. Onto tomorrow's runs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Nice to see the Euro shift 700 miles S. Only 5 more days until we have any clue...if then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Well for more current snow it looks like the mountains may see some hefty snowfall starting Thursday night into Friday with some very high winds and very cold temps also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 6z keeps an Apps runner look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I guess you all read Don's post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 On 12/19/2012 at 12:17 AM, HKY_WX said: The GFS ensembles are interesting similar to the EURO ensembles. Several of those members are certainly icestorm material. And then i see this ensemble mean and i say to myself, how can that vort in the southwest go anywhere but the tn valley and be forced to redevelop. The blocking scheme just screams miller b to me. 0z mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Alot of consensus centered around an apps runner scenerio looking at all the ensemble and operational solutions from 0z/6z. I'll hold out hope till this weekend after the front gets by us Friday and the table gets set up to our north. Regradless it should get bone chilling cold all across SE as we close out 2012 and head into 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 This is why you should not get hung up on long range op runs. I'm not sure if this solution is even possible. Check out this 5h map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 is this good for wnc, I hope. not quite good enough reading these maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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