MillzPirate Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 On 12/17/2012 at 6:07 PM, Brick Tamland said: Looks like the Euro and the GFS are completely different with the system around Christmas. I wonder if the energy we have now and how unstable the atmosphere is currently is playing havoc on the models. Banter thread? Not a good statement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 On 12/17/2012 at 6:09 PM, franklin NCwx said: Can you please explain? The systems that will be moving in ahead of Christmas. There was talk of severe weather today and later this week with another system. Lots of action going on and instability around. Just saying it is very active and wondering if that makes it hard for the models to get a grasp on things beyond a couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 On 12/17/2012 at 6:11 PM, MillzPirate said: Banter thread? Not a good statement How so? You don't think the pattern is very active now and that could have an effect on the models seeing beyond a few days because of it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 On 12/17/2012 at 6:11 PM, Brick Tamland said: The systems that will be moving in ahead of Christmas. There was talk of severe weather today and later this week with another system. Lots of action going on and instability around. Just saying it is very active and wondering if that makes it hard for the models to get a grasp on things beyond a couple of days. You mean the storm that is still 5 days out in model land? Well, you want that storm to really " bomb out" in the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 On 12/17/2012 at 6:11 PM, Brick Tamland said: The systems that will be moving in ahead of Christmas. There was talk of severe weather today and later this week with another system. Lots of action going on and instability around. Just saying it is very active and wondering if that makes it hard for the models to get a grasp on things beyond a couple of days. Are you referencing convective feedback issues? I don't think thats the case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 On 12/17/2012 at 6:18 PM, MillzPirate said: Are you referencing convective feedback issues? I don't think thats the case Just wondering if there are a lot of systems coming through if the models have a hard time seeing past the current one sometimes to another one down the road until the current one has passed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 12Z Euro much warmer than 0Z Euro 6-10...Luc.....ooops...I mean Charlie Brown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 On 12/17/2012 at 6:39 PM, GaWx said: 12Z Euro much warmer than 0Z Euro 6-10...Luc.....ooops...I mean Charlie Brown. Yep looks to my untrained eye like it will resemble the 12z GFS on the surface....guess we'll wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 @204 not too bad (for NC). Low is around the FL panhandle with a 1028 high in NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 @210 big CAD signal with snow in the mountains of WNC. High is parked in central PA...for now. Might be an interesting run....@216 it is downright cold in Tx with the 850 line reaching Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 On 12/17/2012 at 6:46 PM, burgertime said: @204 not too bad (for NC). Low is around the FL panhandle with a 1028 high in NY. Sounds classic to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 On 12/17/2012 at 6:48 PM, burgertime said: @210 big CAD signal with snow in the mountains of WNC. High is parked in central PA...for now. Might be an interesting run....@216 it is downright cold in Tx with the 850 line reaching Mexico. So no cutter...interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 On 12/17/2012 at 6:39 PM, GaWx said: 12Z Euro much warmer than 0Z Euro 6-10...Luc.....ooops...I mean Charlie Brown. Euro isn't going to cut as much and it might try and reform a low off the VA/NC coast but it's not going to happen this month for the SE, let get Dec over with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 On 12/17/2012 at 6:48 PM, tarheelwx said: Sounds classic to me It actually looks great for NC...though could be a snow to ice scenario.... @222 there is a 1028 high in around CT with a 1032 parked in western NY. Lots of moisture making it's way into NC. Would love to have met chime in on this as I'm not great with CAD setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Looks like it's going to be a classic Miller B on the 12z Euro. CAD signature very well pronounced. I don't see this run as being a whole lot different (colder or warmer) at first glance than the 0z run....certainly within the "noise" range for day 8-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 17, 2012 Author Share Posted December 17, 2012 Euro will not cut because of the block... classic ice storm set up here with a solid CAD signal overhead. It depends how far south this trough initially digs back west and and how quickly it cuts off as well to build up that south-central Canada block. The stronger that block is, the further south the low will be.. less block, the further north the primary low will get before tranferring to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 On 12/17/2012 at 6:52 PM, burgertime said: It actually looks great for NC...though could be a snow to ice scenario.... @222 there is a 1028 high in around CT with a 1032 parked in western NY. Lots of moisture making it's way into NC. Would love to have met chime in on this as I'm not great with CAD setups. It's in the 50's in NC, it's snowing in MO/KS, great winter storm for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 On 12/17/2012 at 6:52 PM, burgertime said: It actually looks great for NC...though could be a snow to ice scenario.... @222 there is a 1028 high in around CT with a 1032 parked in western NY. Lots of moisture making it's way into NC. Would love to have met chime in on this as I'm not great with CAD setups. where is the 0 C 850 line at 222 when much of the precip arrives? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 On 12/17/2012 at 6:54 PM, nflwxman said: where is the 0 C 850 line at 222 when much of the precip arrives? In MD/PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 On 12/17/2012 at 6:52 PM, burgertime said: It actually looks great for NC...though could be a snow to ice scenario.... @222 there is a 1028 high in around CT with a 1032 parked in western NY. Lots of moisture making it's way into NC. Would love to have met chime in on this as I'm not great with CAD setups. If there is plenty of cold, dry air available (which I have no idea because I can't view any maps right now), what you're describing is a lock for a winter storm.....that's if that verifies and there's a legit cold air source. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 On 12/17/2012 at 6:53 PM, packbacker said: It's in the 50's in NC, it's snowing in MO/KS, great winter storm for them. On 12/17/2012 at 6:54 PM, nflwxman said: where is the 0 C 850 line at 222 when much of the precip arrives? On 12/17/2012 at 6:55 PM, packbacker said: In MD/PA. It's a CAD setup and on the Euro you can clearly see the classic CAD signature showing up. Not worried about what it's saying about sfc temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Been here long enough to know what that means. 1032 hp blocked in NE is winter storm for piedmont/ western nc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 At 240 it's about to reform a low of the NC coast, someone might get some backside snows, probably VA/NC border, and than should be a great winter storm for MA and NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 On 12/17/2012 at 6:57 PM, burgertime said: It's a CAD setup and on the Euro you can clearly see the classic CAD signature showing up. Not worried about what it's saying about sfc temps. It's not an icing event per that run with the 5h it's showing. Look at the 5h and not the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 On 12/17/2012 at 6:53 PM, packbacker said: It's in the 50's in NC, it's snowing in MO/KS, great winter storm for them. Not for the CAD areas: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 LOL.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 On 12/17/2012 at 6:59 PM, packbacker said: It's not an icing event per that run with the 5h it's showing. Look at the 5h and not the surface. Have you cleared your cache? We must be looking at two different maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Wow, sure is cold at 240... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Definite CAD signal to start but by 240 the high has retreated north and the 50/50 low is gone. Looks like ice to rain to me for favored CAD areas NC northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Yeah. It doesn't make any sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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