aldie 22 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The drying trend shall begin now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The drying trend shall begin now.... you've risen as one of the best forecasters in the subforum of late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Can't say I'm surprised at all but today's runs could not really have gone much worse. Rainy Christmas followed up with a rainstorm. Good times! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Impressive wind today. Driving down 267 a whole new experience. It may well be the highlight of this Christmas season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Can't say I'm surprised at all but today's runs could not really have gone much worse. Rainy Christmas followed up with a rainstorm. Good times! Yeah, no surprise, honestly. People seem to forget that it really doesn't snow here very often. Everything, and I mean, every little thing, must be lined up just right, for it to snow here. If you see a model 10 days out showing a massive snowstorm, with tons of cold, 50/50 low, blocking, et all, you're still more likely to be correct with a forecast of rain or dry, than you are forecasting snow. We seem to be in a continuing pattern where it doesn't seem able to snow in this area. Until I see evidence of this changing, I'm not going to get excited over anything I see in the models, at least until model concensus is reached a day or two before the event. And even then, we still manage to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory more often than not, so I will be skeptical. We have cold air, so that's good. But we also seem to be in a pattern where inland storm tracks are repeating. I wouldn't be shocked to see a repeating pattern of cold/dry, followed by a mild/rain, followed again by cold/dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I really like the general setup for 12/29 and then again on 1/2. I guess I shouldn't be, but I'd be shocked if we came out of the next 10 days without a significant snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I really like the general setup for 12/29 and then again on 1/2. I guess I shouldn't be, but I'd be shocked if we came out of the next 10 days without a significant snowstorm. NAO is supposed to go positive for the first chance which is probably another reason not to get too excited about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 NAO is supposed to go positive for the first chance which is probably another reason not to get too excited about it. The ao correlates a better than the nao with snow (4 inch or more events) as the blocking measured by the nao index is between iceland and the azores. The place we need the same type of block is between baffin to Greenland with lower heights and a nice vortex to its south. That configuration can be present when the NAO is positive. That configuration was present on last night's D+11 superens mean so I'm not going to yet poo poo the potential. Still we live in DC so any long range threat is suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Roddy White is a clutch fantasy FB playoff player....he won my superbowl for me last season.... Ob - 34/19 here in Old Town....I feel pretty good that I will achieve my forecast low of 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I haven't been following anything all day. So... 1) Congrats, Katie! 2) Apparently we still suck at winter 3) Can't wait for the next failure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Geezus...the more I read, the more of a sh**show this is all turning out to be. Fun times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I hope it rains Yay! I'm out of town so the snow can wait till New Years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 18 this morning with a little bit of snow cover left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 My house and DCA finally break into the 20s! I'd have to find my old post, but I think this ties the latest sub-30 on record at DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 So I drive to my mothers house and it all falls apart. Whqt the Hell happened? Yesterday morning I AW getting a foot. Now I get 3 inches of rain. Disgusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 22...this place radiates well...at least the 5th time in the low 20's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I hear its cold out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I hear its cold out Little bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I have a general observation. Having not grown up in the Mid Atlantic I cannot 100% back my theory but here I go. From the past winters of living in MD I have noticed that we get the winter weather off of systems that generally come up from the S/SW with an ample supply of moisture out of the Gulf. And as long as we have the cold temps in place is when we get snow. The systems that come from the W/NW have at best been a 50/50 shot. Of course this is the opposite of what I grew up with in NW Ohio. Where the systems coming in from the Rockies and N/NW would give us a better shot. I am in no way scientific about this but it is just from general observation as I stated above. Am I correct in this observation or off the mark? I know way more goes into weather and I am still learning but was curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 It's so funny...sitting here drinking coffee...watching NFL stuff....wondering if the GFS will show signs of a jumper again...I think if it does even if it is rain it will be a sign that things are shifting again...if it still shows one low driving towards Cleveland then well....on to the euro...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Little bit I'll find out soon. Going home today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Thoughts on snow tomorrow in western md? Gonna be heading that way hope to see some flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Day 6 storm still looks like snow. There is room for it to come north much like the day 3 storm, so keep your fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Why is modeled winter always 15 times better than actual winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Why is modeled winter always 15 times better than actual winter? Because, in reality, we don't do true winter around here. Once or twice a decade perhaps, but otherwise winter is just a way to get from summer to spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Waste of a storm mode warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 We're in storm mode? What for? I've been mostly away from things since yesterday morning, so perhaps I missed something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 How ironic that the coldest storm of the season was a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I'm starting to wonder if we'll have something to track from more than a few days out that turns out to be a worthwhile snowfall. I have a feeling we may get something that semi-surprises us, but nothing that we can follow for a good amount of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Because, in reality, we don't do true winter around here. Once or twice a decade perhaps, but otherwise winter is just a way to get from summer to spring. we're better than that! it's once every 7 years (95/96, 02/03 & 09/10) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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