eurojosh Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 http://www.whitehous...s-federal-gover God Bless America. With the Chill storm on the 26th it could be a week before work resumes....! Or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 God Bless America. With the Chill storm on the 26th it could be a week before work resumes....! Or not. Now you're just being greedy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I've been so focused our subforum that I haven't looked around for a while. Are they up to day, days, or days and days of snow up north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Snow shower out here in western Frederick County, VA.....Looks nice coming down but wont amount to anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Flizzard conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Occasional lost fluffy out here in lessburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I've been so focused our subforum that I haven't looked around for a while. Are they up to day, days, or days and days of snow up north? Days and days of snow as the upper low then moves through Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Flizzard warning.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 First flakes here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 flakes in Sterling, va Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Solid snow shower in Sterling now! Even a little drop in the visibility! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Light snow in Rockville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ge0 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Snowing in Germantown... nice little band, trying to stick on some surfaces but it looks like it wont be going much longer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Flurries in Arlington !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Flurries in Arlington (Fairlington). Sweet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 2 mile walk with dog. Grey skies, snow in the air the whole time and 15-20 mph winds.....I smile and think to myself......real pattern change? First day of seasonal winter? Omen? Harbinger? I'm getting stoked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 responding here as not to clutter the other thread.. I certainly overstated things by saying I'd be stunned if it changed as I didn't expect there to be no changes but didn't see any chance of the low going to our south and east enough for a snowstorm. I still think that is unlikely as the most likely track is still some type of miller b solution. I guess you'll consider my comments equivocated. I certainly did not see the storm coming as far east as it look like it will but still think the odds are that the storm track west of us which keeps most of us from getting a major winter storm. Could we get the latter, sure as I noted in my article. I guess part of the problem with communicating between us is that some always see snow chances (I'm not saying you) pretty much every storm and I probably have reacted too strongly to that. Anyway, congrats to you and Bob. It's kinda silly that people who 'see' a storm 2-3+ weeks or more out then have it 'verify' actually think they did anything. The whole thing has become grating over recent years more than ever. I don't remember so many "I saw this and did that great" as we hear all the time lately. There's no coincidence that you're one of the best forecasters and also humble/cautious. I think at some point everyone needs to step back and re-think how the long range is examined. It's one thing to try to find a pattern.. but storm specific talk so far in advance is largely BS hopecasting and should be called out as such IMO. It does no one a service to think that they can nail things down in fantasy range just because a broken clock is right every now and then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I agree totally ian and I take little credit other than stirring up a lot of extra analysis which is fun anyway. All I ever said is that it appeared to be a window for our first legit threat. Nothing more than that. And I got lucky. I'm not doing it again because I'm too modest for the whole experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Is the 18gfs really the same program as the other 3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Is the 18gfs really the same program as the other 3? I was just wondering the same thing... It's quite a solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I agree totally ian and I take little credit other than stirring up a lot of extra analysis which is fun anyway. All I ever said is that it appeared to be a window for our first legit threat. Nothing more than that. And I got lucky. I'm not doing it again because I'm too modest for the whole experience. I think you're smart enough to know you can't make a specific forecast from range. I'm not sure about a lot of other posters though. Plus, not to detract from your findings, but I think a number of people were "into" late month as a possibility for better.. Part of my reason saying naming storms after posters etc is stupid is we all spend so much time focusing on that the conversation becomes stupid. It's also possible I've just lost interest in a lot of the talk.. I can look at a model without needing to see someone post a about a panel as their description... or even other small details. I don't need to make a lot of posts telling people that I'm great.. or read 'em from others. Hopefully it doesn't all drive away good forecasters who aren't going to go out on a weenie limb from 10-15 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I gotcha Ian. I do think our subforum is really really good. I've browsed the others like many. I think the coolest thing is that when things get interesting the vast majority of the posts in the pinned thread are analysis based. And some really good analysis even from armchair folks. We don't have the prolific clutter nearly as bad as some other areas. I prob have a much higher tolerance though. I'm still pretty new around here compared to many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Snow flurries have been flying all day...occasionally it gets squally with reduced visibility. The wind is brutal though. The roads have been wet for the most part but are now getting snow covered and icy where the treatment is wearing off. Temperature has been slowly falling, now down to 27 and the windchill is getting into the teens. Overall it's been quite a wintery day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I think you're smart enough to know you can't make a specific forecast from range. I'm not sure about a lot of other posters though. Plus, not to detract from your findings, but I think a number of people were "into" late month as a possibility for better.. Part of my reason saying naming storms after posters etc is stupid is we all spend so much time focusing on that the conversation becomes stupid. It's also possible I've just lost interest in a lot of the talk.. I can look at a model without needing to see someone post a about a panel as their description... or even other small details. I don't need to make a lot of posts telling people that I'm great.. or read 'em from others. Hopefully it doesn't all drive away good forecasters who aren't going to go out on a weenie limb from 10-15 days out. I haven't seen any chest-thumping in our forum at all...weeniesm has increased, but haven't seen any self congratulatory back patting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I gotcha Ian. I do think our subforum is really really good. I've browsed the others like many. I think the coolest thing is that when things get interesting the vast majority of the posts in the pinned thread are analysis based. And some really good analysis even from armchair folks. We don't have the prolific clutter nearly as bad as some other areas. I prob have a much higher tolerance though. I'm still pretty new around here compared to many. you deserve some credit for this storm....I'm not sure who Ian is referring to in this forum...we have all been modest and humble... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I gotcha Ian. I do think our subforum is really really good. I've browsed the others like many. I think the coolest thing is that when things get interesting the vast majority of the posts in the pinned thread are analysis based. And some really good analysis even from armchair folks. We don't have the prolific clutter nearly as bad as some other areas. I prob have a much higher tolerance though. I'm still pretty new around here compared to many. Our forum is pretty good.. it is also apparent it's been a while since we've had a good snow.. many people are being a little extra lenient on the general game around here when it comes to getting snow. I'm probably partly burnt out and have tended to not care as much about snow talk over the last few years. But I've also had a number of red taggers voice their opinions lately... not necessarily the thoughts I'd hope to hear about the direction of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 you deserve some credit for this storm....I'm not sure who Ian is referring to in this forum...we have all been modest and humble... you see what you want. my issues are not just my issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 you see what you want. my issues are not just my issues. you're being nebulous and vague so I guess I don't really know what you are talking about...I just haven't seen any back patting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Ian, as an obsessive forum reader, and pretty nothing contributor, I have enjoyed the chatter during the slow period from Matt and Bob and a few others, it was a decent set of reads and even some stuff to chew over. Wes too. I guess I am confused about who was chest-thumping or who even truly "called" a storm. At best, a few said this looked like a good window where something frozen might fall. That's not different from stuff others have done in the past looking ahead at patterns. its not different from what HM does, I don't think. I guess I am confused as to the criticism and what you would like to be different.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Ian, as an obsessive forum reader, and pretty nothing contributor, I have enjoyed the chatter during the slow period from Matt and Bob and a few others, it was a decent set of reads and even some stuff to chew over. Wes too. I guess I am confused about who was chest-thumping or who even truly "called" a storm. At best, a few said this looked like a good window where something frozen might fall. That's not different from stuff others have done in the past looking ahead at patterns. its not different from what HM does, I don't think. I guess I am confused as to the criticism and what you would like to be different.... nobody has self-congratulated or chest-thumped...If anything I locked in way too early to a far west/rain solution....this storm was a good reminder about locking into anything too quickly...This is a humble forum, mainly because our titular leader Wes is a humble forecaster...he sets the tone....other than some minutia and recent weenieism this is a good forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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