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December Obs and Banter


WinterWxLuvr

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I like posting about storms when Wes isnt around....I feel like a high school kid whose parents when away for a week and left him at home. He will come back soon enough tomorrow morning to break our hearts

more like a pre schooler who refuses to learn to tie his shoes

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nice

mcd2200.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2200

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1124 PM CST THU DEC 20 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL NC/SOUTHEAST VA/SOUTHEAST MD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 210524Z - 210730Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVELY INDUCED DAMAGING

WINDS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN A TORNADO...MAY INCREASE THROUGH 07Z-08Z

ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN OF NC AND SOUTHEAST VA. WHILE UNCERTAINTIES

EXIST REGARDING THE LIKELIHOOD/EXTENT OF THE SEVERE

RISK...ORGANIZATIONAL/INTENSITY TRENDS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR

A POSSIBLE WATCH.

DISCUSSION...AS AN EXTREMELY STRONG WIND FIELD OVERSPREADS THE

REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MIDWEST-CENTERED UPPER TROUGH...SEVERAL

QUASI-LINEAR/NON-LIGHTNING PRODUCING NARROW CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS HAVE

DEVELOPED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF NC SINCE LATE EVENING. THIS IS

OCCURRING NEAR AN EASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT AND IN TANDEM WITH THE

DEEPENING PHASE OF A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW. AS OF 05Z...THE SURFACE

LOW IS AROUND 995 MB IN CENTRAL VA...WITH SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE

PRESSURE FALLS NOTED /6-8 MB PER 2HR/ ACROSS EASTERN VA AND ADJACENT

MD/DE. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE

DEVELOPMENT...A MODESTLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS CONTINUES TO

STEADILY DEVELOP NORTHWARD...WITH AROUND 60F SURFACE DEWPOINTS

BECOMING INCREASINGLY PREVALENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL NC AS

OF 05Z.

THE PRIMARY SHORT-TERM UNCERTAINTY RELATES TO MODEST NATURE OF

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED MEAGER NEAR-SURFACE BUOYANCY

WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...ALTHOUGH IT IS PLAUSIBLE THAT A COUPLE

HUNDRED J/KG OF SBCAPE MAY QUICKLY MATERIALIZE EARLY IN THE

OVERNIGHT AS CONSISTENT WITH 00Z NAM/GFS GUIDANCE. EVEN WITH THESE

LIMITATIONS...IF ORGANIZED NEAR-SURFACE BASED STORM STRUCTURES CAN

DEVELOP/MATURE AND REMAIN SUSTAINED...EVEN WITH LITTLE OR NO

CLOUD-GROUND LIGHTNING...AT LEAST CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WIND GUSTS

WOULD BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS ACCENTUATED BY ANY SMALL-BOWING

SEGMENTS/SHALLOW SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. LATE EVENING WSR-88D VWP DATA

FROM WAKEFIELD VA/RALEIGH NC ARE INDICATIVE OF 65-70 KT

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITHIN THE LOWEST 0.5-3 KM. 00Z-BASED

CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE WRF-NMM/WRF-NSSL LEND

CREDITABILITY TO THE IDEA THAT A FORCED CONVECTIVE LINE MAY EVOLVE

AND QUICKLY SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

..GUYER/CARBIN.. 12/21/2012

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Snow squall this morning, 29F...the snow is driving sideways with the howling wind. The ground is white..about 0.1". Stepped outside to grab my rain guage and was met by a blast of wind driven snow...it's brutal out there after being used to the recent warmth. Wind chill is down to 15.

The wind had our window wreaths bumping and scraping the windows all night.

0.39" of total precip with the rain yesterday.

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Im gonna admit that i have been sucked in more than i wanted to with this one...im gonna ride it out since it is still about a year away but i must admit....it has all the makings of a light drizzle storm here while 40N gets theirs...hope im wrong and we all get screwed

You have a better shot than you've had at least. Fun to see everyone's biases come out to play. The storm is still a good ways off as you note.. If the solutions we see right now are completely correct I'd be pretty surprised.

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