Ian Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Well to be fair, the Euro isn't run 4 times per day either. True tho its still more consistent obviously. So close to my 18z snowstorm call. Probably a cutter again at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 True tho its still more consistent obviously. So close to my 18z snowstorm call. Probably a cutter again at 0z. It's interesting that all the more suppressed runs have been the so called off hours. It probably is meaningly and is just telling us that the pattern is far from resolved but still is kind of funny. Prior to the 18Z I thought your call might be right. What's bad is that both models are playing to their biases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Very impressive run. Get just a tad bit more of a negative tilt and DCA is in the ballgame. Or this is just a boxing day repeat in the making. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 Hi - not yet. Maybe this weekend Wishing you all the best, you and your family. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 The only reason I don't want the GFS to happen is that DT will be beating his chest for weeks.... Me too but so will JB but then both call for so many storm they are bound to be right eventually. I thinnk I mentioned that last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I know it's fun sport and popular to bash DT, but he did state that as much as he'd like the 18Z GFS to be correct he always throws that model run out as being very unreliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 It's interesting that all the more suppressed runs have been the so called off hours. It probably is meaningly and is just telling us that the pattern is far from resolved but still is kind of funny. Prior to the 18Z I thought your call might be right. What's bad is that both models are playing to their biases. Yeah.. I know ppl say the runs are all statistically the same but the 18z for sure has been to the east and colder every day lately. I rarely look at 6z so don't know there. It would be kind of funny if the storm ended up hitting NC and missing tho. The Euro has certainly shifted over recent days... as youd expect from range.. but the last few runs have shown some consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 man that is one heck of a storm for the new year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Hi - not yet. Maybe this weekend Katie, holding a thought for you and yours. All the best in this process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 man that is one heck of a storm for the new year Book it Till it gets closer at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Yeah.. I know ppl say the runs are all statistically the same but the 18z for sure has been to the east and colder every day lately. I rarely look at 6z so don't know there. It would be kind of funny if the storm ended up hitting NC and missing tho. The Euro has certainly shifted over recent days... as youd expect from range.. but the last few runs have shown some consistency. The 06z last night was really suppressed much like this run. They are probably just waffling between solutions with anything from the Euro to this GFS in play even though I suspect the low to come back north some on the next GFS run. The 500h on the GFS really is close to being a good storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Katie, holding a thought for you and yours. All the best in this process. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 The 06z last night was really suppressed much like this run. They are probably just waffling between solutions with anything from the Euro to this GFS in play even though I suspect the low to come back north some on the next GFS run. The 500h on the GFS really is close to being a good storm. Yeah it looks pretty decent at 500. I'll have to go on Internet blackout if it snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 As an obs, just looked and saw that elevations above 1500' in Frederick are down to 33-34 degrees now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 The main difference is how the EURO & GFS handle the christmas wave. The GFS turns it into a pretty good 50/50 low while the EURO doesn't bring that wave east thus no confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 The main difference is how the EURO & GFS handle the christmas wave. The GFS turns it into a pretty good 50/50 low while the EURO doesn't bring that wave east thus no confluence. The 18z treatment of the first wave is suspect as its quite a bit more of an event where before it was basically some spits of rain or snow. That one is getting into range where the Euro does pretty well. As Randy would say.. 0z will be telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Me thinks that a thread dedicated to the XMmas morning and the 27th storm should be created, leaving the obs for rain and wind obs in the next 48 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 We are supposed to be traveling down to GA on the 26th and returning on the 30th. I have been following the possibilities you all have been put out there but am trying to get a better idea. We usually take 81 down to 77 to 20. It looks like our path could possibly be affected during our travel time but not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I can't wait until it gets to the 84h NAM wheel house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Snow or not these wild solutions and expert analysis are creating an awesome vibe here and this is the most fun I've had for a while....I hope this continues right until Xmas with no clear solution so we have to nowcast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I can't wait until it gets to the 84h NAM wheel house Me and tracker started exptrapolating last night. I was going to wait until tonight but he said "why wait?" and I couldn't find a good reason too. From what I'm seeing so far, the extra 40 hours I'm running is SMOKIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Had a bunch of sleet on the onset of all this rain as I was heading to work earlier. It's all rain now. 0.41 so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 .19 rainfall so far. Not to bad. Started around 530pm or so at Dulles. Been raining since then. 39* though, raw outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Probably not on topic but I just got accepted to the Penn State University for the Meteorology program! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I can't remember the dates, but I guess it was around Thanksgiving. Wasn't the Euro honking snowstorm over and over, and eventually folded to the GFS? I remember thinking the king has lost his crown regarding the winter pattern. It won the Sandy war, but that was primarily a tropical system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Like Ian's been saying...18z gfs just wants to go hog wild lately. I don't think anybody can deny that it's *possible* to get all snow. It's just going to take some perfect events leading up and perfect placement of those leftovers in the following days. Maybe it's time to say snow covered deep dish pizza is off the table now? I'm certainly a weenie but let me remind everyone of just how all-snowish our storms have been since 2008-09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Front is passing through now...winds picked up big time with gusts up into the low 20's. Edit: getting pea sized hail too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Probably not on topic but I just got accepted to the Penn State University for the Meteorology program! Hey, Congrats! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 GFS has been known to kick things east to fast at this time range. I'm going Euro, except further west. That is if the world doesn't end tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Barometer bottomed at 29.40 today, second lowest reading of the year. Even beat the sandy storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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