Ian Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 My that storm #rockinjanuary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Ian storm looks delicious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Right where we want it... OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 yeah tho there is a significant diff around the cities.. euro ens is really the only thing that shows accum of note that far east. If I'm only going to have one player on my team, the Euro ensembles is the one I'd pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 If I'm only going to have one player on my team, the Euro ensembles is the one I'd pick. you're a snow weenie tho.. so of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 you're a snow weenie tho.. so of course. If the JMA or Brazilian meteogram was the only prog that showed me with snow, I'd feel less excited. Nothing really tops the Euro ensembles at Day 5-7 as far as accuracy. Doesn't mean it's right here, but still... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 If the JMA or Brazilian meteogram was the only prog that showed me with snow, I'd feel less excited. Nothing really tops the Euro ensembles at Day 5-7 as far as accuracy. Doesn't mean it's right here, but still... it might be right.. it's also kind of on its own with the snowier solution into the cities tho which is usually a flag. i don't know enough about the ensembles to dispute any claim. i do know there are some situations where the mean isn't necessarily that valuable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 How the hell did this go from a CHI special to a coast redeveloper so quick. GFS, lol. Let's see what the good Doctor has in store. I havent looked at FB yet but I am sure DT is claiming victory... which is the kiss of death for us.. cause one thing is for certain... the solution will change between now and next Thurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 i do know there are some situations where the mean isn't necessarily that valuable. Absolutely. You definitely get that case with the GFS. With fewer members, extreme outliers can bias the mean so much that it's not useful. With 51 members, the Euro ensembles SHOULD avoid such a scenario in almost all situations. But, since I can't view the individual members, I can't be sure of it for a given case. We'll see what today holds, but certainly that the GFS and Euro Ops both have not dissimilar solutions (at least for the moment) to the Euro ensembles suggests to me that it's not an extreme outlier, even if it gives us more snow than the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I havent looked at FB yet but I am sure DT is claiming victory... which is the kiss of death for us.. cause one thing is for certain... the solution will change between now and next Thurs. Yeah. DT with a "WOOF"....Hey he deserves some props IF it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Sharp cutoff west to east across northern va but DCA within 100 miles of significant snows. Umm. Yeah. I'll take my 12 inches and like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 So the xmas s/w and s/w that causes the Miller A-B storm both originate from the E PAC trough / developing Omega Block. These two waves kick out as the block shoots over the N.P. to merge with the -NAO block. I can't imagine why the last 4 GFS runs have all been very different! Time to sample the North Pacific! Send out the crews... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Oh my god the Canadian... Yes please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Oh my god the Canadian... Yes please! Image? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Image? Link will only work for 24 hrs. http://www.meteo.psu...2z/cmcloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Link will only work for 24 hrs. http://www.meteo.psu...2z/cmcloop.html That does look nice just looking at the setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 12z also wants to bring in the cold on the long range, and it wants to get some sub-tropical moisture into the mix. I'll believe it when I see it, but I believe Don Sutherland has been fixated on the early-January timeframe for a while. It'd be pretty impressive if he nails it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Wow thanks for the link at a different computer, Link will only work for 24 hrs. http://www.meteo.psu...2z/cmcloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 euro is out to 24 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 through day 4, Euro looks flatter to me http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h96&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Reading his most recent model post, I feel like Wes went shopping this morning and bought us all a gift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 through day 4, Euro looks flatter to me http://vortex.plymou...t=h24&cu=latest It looks interesting at 120 hours with the clipper going to our nort and probably bringing us cold air but also reinforcing the maritimes system. It probably will look better than last night. Famous last words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 through day 4, Euro looks flatter to me http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h96&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest I don't like that. Toss it. Please insert weenie map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 OK, let' me put this in the right thread, stuck it in wrong one earlier..... Well, isn't this a surprise......sleet and 39 degrees. About 25 minutes of pure sleet, just enough to whiten the elevated decks and car windshields. Now a mix of rain and sleet. Had about 0.03 liquid precip so far. Another big miss by forecast, they were calling for rain showers by late afternoon and a 48 high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I realize that Wes isn't honking for the New Year pattern, but I do like when he starts to make posts like the one below. Given very limited knowledge, it even seems to me like the pattern - as modeled - is looking pretty good for early January, and is certainly the best look we've had so far. If anyone sees Lucy, give her a forearm shiver to the throat. I don't have much to say except that the super ensemble mean for D+8 is the nicest so far by far. The pattern is shown has 3 analogs that produced a 4 inch storm within 3 days of the centered mean, dec 1966, Dec 2009, Jan 1, 2001. It also had another that fell witin 5 days. That big of storm is so limo unusual that having 3 analog dates clustered that closely suggests that the pattern finally is one that is above average for snowfall. The D+11 also isn't that different. I looked for the D+11 Centered mean from Dec 2009 I know I posted it on Eastern back in the day but must have deleted it and then eastern lost all the graphics for the dec thread. Anyway, here's the 500, I still suspect that the coming storm post christmas will be mostly rain but not with nearly as much confidence as earlier. The pattern on the superens mean is a pretty good one through the new year. Of course the models have been all over the place so it would be nice to see the pattern hold for a few days before going completely ga ga on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 60% chance we have an above avg snow month in Jan. #bookit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 60% chance we have an above avg snow month in Jan. #bookit The best call is the one you can't possibly be wrong about. Nicely done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 60% chance we have an above avg snow month in Jan. #bookit I'm no LR person, but it is starting to feel good, isn't it? I'd love an early Jan snow that we might be able to keep around for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 The best call is the one you can't possibly be wrong about. Nicely done. I didn't say which Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I didn't say which Jan. Or where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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