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December Obs and Banter


WinterWxLuvr

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Wes is going to be grumpy after an all day shopping trip with his wife....probably be tired from carrying her purse all day...lol...just kidding Wes...kisses

$5 says Wes uses a fanny pack

It's probably a good thing Wes is out shopping. We get a little extra time to enjoy the run before our hopes get pummeled like the Browns last Sunday.

we're like the wizards. On the rare occasion we pull off an upset

im waiting for twisterdata to update.. boxing day chase for me in n fl?

http://mag.ncep.noaa...500_vort_ht.gif

glass ornaments in a twister ftw

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Didn't see the op...i'm speaking mostly about the cutoff....no matter...tomorrow is a different day

yeah tho there is a significant diff around the cities.. euro ens is really the only thing that shows accum of note that far east.

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If the JMA or Brazilian meteogram was the only prog that showed me with snow, I'd feel less excited. Nothing really tops the Euro ensembles at Day 5-7 as far as accuracy. Doesn't mean it's right here, but still...

it might be right.. it's also kind of on its own with the snowier solution into the cities tho which is usually a flag. i don't know enough about the ensembles to dispute any claim. i do know there are some situations where the mean isn't necessarily that valuable.

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How the hell did this go from a CHI special to a coast redeveloper so quick. GFS, lol. Let's see what the good Doctor has in store.

I havent looked at FB yet but I am sure DT is claiming victory... which is the kiss of death for us.. cause one thing is for certain... the solution will change between now and next Thurs.

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i do know there are some situations where the mean isn't necessarily that valuable.

Absolutely. You definitely get that case with the GFS. With fewer members, extreme outliers can bias the mean so much that it's not useful. With 51 members, the Euro ensembles SHOULD avoid such a scenario in almost all situations. But, since I can't view the individual members, I can't be sure of it for a given case.

We'll see what today holds, but certainly that the GFS and Euro Ops both have not dissimilar solutions (at least for the moment) to the Euro ensembles suggests to me that it's not an extreme outlier, even if it gives us more snow than the others.

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