nw baltimore wx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 It's the Gordon Barnes / Bill Kamal double-barrel low! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 It's the Gordon Barnes / Bill Kamal double-barrel low! Knowing what happened to Kamal I can only hope the storm doesn't have a terrible ending either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Ok Ian, I've done my job from like a gagillion hours out. We're inside of 7 days. Bring this sucker home and make it snow dammit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Ok Ian, I've done my job from like a gagillion hours out. We're inside of 7 days. Bring this sucker home and make it snow dammit. Wait till the Euro. The GFS is crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Took forEVER to get anything from NCEP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Wait till the Euro. The GFS is crap. Thanks DT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Wait till the Euro. The GFS is crap. What are you DT or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Thanks DT NINJA'd! Bastage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 NINJA'd! Bastage We got Ian on board so now all that is left is Wes and then we are golden Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 We got Ian on board so now all that is left is Wes and then we are golden Wes is going to be grumpy after an all day shopping trip with his wife....probably be tired from carrying her purse all day...lol...just kidding Wes...kisses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 We got Ian on board so now all that is left is Wes and then we are golden It's probably a good thing Wes is out shopping. We get a little extra time to enjoy the run before our hopes get pummeled like the Browns last Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 We got Ian on board so now all that is left is Wes and then we are golden im waiting for twisterdata to update.. boxing day chase for me in n fl? http://mag.ncep.noaa...500_vort_ht.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Sharp cutoff west to east across northern va but DCA within 100 miles of significant snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Wes is going to be grumpy after an all day shopping trip with his wife....probably be tired from carrying her purse all day...lol...just kidding Wes...kisses $5 says Wes uses a fanny pack It's probably a good thing Wes is out shopping. We get a little extra time to enjoy the run before our hopes get pummeled like the Browns last Sunday. we're like the wizards. On the rare occasion we pull off an upset im waiting for twisterdata to update.. boxing day chase for me in n fl? http://mag.ncep.noaa...500_vort_ht.gif glass ornaments in a twister ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Sharp cutoff west to east across northern va but DCA within 100 miles of significant snows. Looks like the map d to the t posted on the euro ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Looks like the map d to the t posted on the euro ensembles not really. it looks more like the euro op, maybe heavier out your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Looks like the map d to the t posted on the euro ensembles bootleg map. Leesburg gets snow on that. Can't be right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I'm gonna say this again...NCEP site blows chunks. Took forEVER to get anything from NCEP. Between instantweathermaps, Raleigh's site, and twisterdata, I don't know why anyone goes to NCEP anymore. I buried the link three folders deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 not really. it looks more like the euro op. Didn't see the op...i'm speaking mostly about the cutoff....no matter...tomorrow is a different day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Right where we want it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Didn't see the op...i'm speaking mostly about the cutoff....no matter...tomorrow is a different day yeah tho there is a significant diff around the cities.. euro ens is really the only thing that shows accum of note that far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 My that storm #rockinjanuary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Ian storm looks delicious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Right where we want it... OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 yeah tho there is a significant diff around the cities.. euro ens is really the only thing that shows accum of note that far east. If I'm only going to have one player on my team, the Euro ensembles is the one I'd pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 If I'm only going to have one player on my team, the Euro ensembles is the one I'd pick. you're a snow weenie tho.. so of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 you're a snow weenie tho.. so of course. If the JMA or Brazilian meteogram was the only prog that showed me with snow, I'd feel less excited. Nothing really tops the Euro ensembles at Day 5-7 as far as accuracy. Doesn't mean it's right here, but still... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 If the JMA or Brazilian meteogram was the only prog that showed me with snow, I'd feel less excited. Nothing really tops the Euro ensembles at Day 5-7 as far as accuracy. Doesn't mean it's right here, but still... it might be right.. it's also kind of on its own with the snowier solution into the cities tho which is usually a flag. i don't know enough about the ensembles to dispute any claim. i do know there are some situations where the mean isn't necessarily that valuable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 How the hell did this go from a CHI special to a coast redeveloper so quick. GFS, lol. Let's see what the good Doctor has in store. I havent looked at FB yet but I am sure DT is claiming victory... which is the kiss of death for us.. cause one thing is for certain... the solution will change between now and next Thurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 i do know there are some situations where the mean isn't necessarily that valuable. Absolutely. You definitely get that case with the GFS. With fewer members, extreme outliers can bias the mean so much that it's not useful. With 51 members, the Euro ensembles SHOULD avoid such a scenario in almost all situations. But, since I can't view the individual members, I can't be sure of it for a given case. We'll see what today holds, but certainly that the GFS and Euro Ops both have not dissimilar solutions (at least for the moment) to the Euro ensembles suggests to me that it's not an extreme outlier, even if it gives us more snow than the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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