nw baltimore wx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 merry xmas Grinch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 merry xmas wtf...how does this always happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 merry xmas Convective feedback issues or init errors or both. Were gtg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 wow...holds serve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Gfs holds it together. 2nd run. Euro to follow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 the ncep model site is unbearably crappy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 wow...holds serve A noticeable improvement, actually - at least to my eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Heh, I should have gone to bed an hour ago....but I stayed up....and now this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 A noticeable improvement, actually - at least to my eyes. it looks colder at 850 without direct comparison. still kind of a weird solution with such a powerful 500 low but eh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 the ncep model site is unbearably crappy Horribly slow for you too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Horribly slow for you too? i dont even mess with their stupid interface much anymore it sucks so bad but even just cycling thru by changing the image url is slow and painful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 And a secondary? Will it make the transition in time this run? the secondary forms right over ORF and we actually get backlashed...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 it looks colder at 850 without direct comparison. still kind of a weird solution with such a powerful 500 low but eh. I think that lobe coming around the west side of the 50/50 low has something to do with it http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F20%2F2012+00UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=500_vort_ht&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=Loop+All&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 The trend is our friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I think that lobe coming around the west side of the 50/50 low has something to do with it http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M yeah it could be. it sorta explodes then occludes and dies while the secondary takes over. i like how the 500 low actually comes se in the end over the area. lol. fun stuff.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Based on what I saw with the 18z gfs in the lower levels, that looks like an all out IP/ZR fest. Edit: Yup, MRB 925 temps never get above zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Well, 2 runs with a jump and the Xmas wave doing some magic. Let's all remind ourselves how often an oh primary jumping in setups like this actually pan out. Feeling even better about front end frozen in some form though. Fun run. I'll go to sleep before the euro gives me nightmares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 The 500 pattern is so chaotic and there are weird little interactions causing differences that I don't see how any can have a gutsy forecast. Even with a 'good' run the 500 low is too far north for a snowstorm. It's all going to change a lot still I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 And an epic coastal downstream, too. 300h+ blizzards ftw! Fun run for stoking the fantasies of snow-starved weenies ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 the ncep model site is unbearably crappy It's gone downhill since they implemented the new format. Slow as hell I can't take it. They need to fix that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I like where we are going for Jan.. I haven't felt that way yet this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 that map is pure evil to a weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 It's gone downhill since they implemented the new format. Slow as hell I can't take it. They need to fix that. The irony is that the same people that complain about the problem are the problem. Ncep has to ice down the server every time the gfs shows a snowstorm inside of 1 million hours. Guilty as charged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 The irony is that the same people that complain about the problem are the problem. Ncep has to ice down the server every time the gfs shows a snowstorm inside of 1 million hours. Guilty as charged. It might be part of it, but I think there is an issue with their coding or something. It's always slow. If you just pull up the image (.gif URL) and change the numbers it's faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 It might be part of it, but I think there is an issue with their coding or something. It's always slow. If you just pull up the image (.gif URL) and change the numbers it's faster. Can you do that on the four panel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Lol wut at the 6z GFS. The low doesn't make it north of RDU before it slides off the coast. Precip fairly light compared to past runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 trending toward giving Ian snow in Florida? Sounds about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Pretty wild this storm has been on the models for what seems like months now and its still 5 days or so away...its starting to smell a little familiar to some pain a few years ago but i wont go there yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 6z run @ 500 levels are lol for everything post dec 26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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