clskinsfan Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Time for a road trip to Chicago next week. Dont need to go so far. Should be nice lake effect this weekend not too far from home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 DT's saying the Euro ensemble gives much of central MD an ice storm and turns all precip to snow at the end for "several hours" into the big cities. I don't really see where that happens on the 168 or 192 hr panels, but he obviously has better access to the specifics. Euro ensembles also show a very nice EPO ridge into AK at 216 and 240hrs. Lastly...how the hell did nobody mention that the Euro gives us Christmas eve snow showers/flurries?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 That said, I have a (first) little girl due to come in a little under five weeks. That puts us smack in the middle of peak winter climo, and I certainly wouldn't be opposed to having a snowbaby... congrats in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 It's sad how there was hope back in November for a cold pattern to set up, at least for a few days or a week in December, and that never materialized. As has happened all to often, once again, we are having to punt on a winter month, and are left hoping that the cold and stormy pattern showing 10 days out can somehow become reality. Feels like we have been in this same situation so many times. I'm no fan of the warmth, but I'm not complaining yet. The cold and snow can wait, and I never even seriously expected anything out of December regardless of some 10-15 day fantasy storms/pattern changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I'm no fan of the warmth, but I'm not complaining yet. The cold and snow can wait, and I never even seriously expected anything out of December regardless of some 10-15 day fantasy storms/pattern changes. This is the right attitude, knowing your climo. There is really only 1 time I can think of in recent years where I hyped December in the Mid Atlantic and that was 2009. Unless you have circumstances that anomalous looking from far out, best bet is to stick to climo and hope for the best. So far, Matt's outlook for the area is doing the best with a good understanding of DC climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Thanks! Yeah..it does seem like there are a good few of us bringing home babies this winter. A snowbaby would be awesome, as would having a storm while I'm on paternity leave! I have a snow baby. Went in Dec. 12th 2003 had her on the 13th and a day later had some snow. Congratulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Ahh...the obligatory suck you in run....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 18z might be statistically the same but it's always the best run of the day it seems. I might need a break.. The waffling run to run and hugging day 10 forecasts is maddening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 18z might be statistically the same but it's always the best run of the day it seems. I might need a break.. The waffling run to run and hugging day 10 forecasts is maddening. Good call. I only do this twice a day (0 and 12z). 4 times a day doubly as maddening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I'm liking that little shortwave on Christmas morning. Still too far out for details but I believe it has a better chance of flurries than any of the other of the systems on the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Good call. I only do this twice a day (0 and 12z). 4 times a day doubly as maddening? It's just kind of embarrassing. I think our subforum used to be more rational. I'll blame the lack of snow for two year but again... We don't see this with summer storms and such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 18z might be statistically the same but it's always the best run of the day it seems. I might need a break.. The waffling run to run and hugging day 10 forecasts is maddening. Don't go to DT's page I don't disagree...I think it is also probably foolhardy to stick with a solution......I think we have seen some realistic options laid out....we have some parameters to work with....I think the weenieism comes from going outside the parameters and thinking this can morph into a DC snowstorm...there is nothing that suggests that..at least yet...Assuming that the optimism is restricted to the idea that we might get an interesting hybrid storm, I think this is a fun one to follow, especially since the models have had this storm for run after run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I think its cute some of the things Ian gets his panties in a bunch about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Don't go to DT's page I don't disagree...I think it is also probably foolhardy to stick with a solution......I think we have seen some realistic options laid out....we have some parameters to work with....I think the weenieism comes from going outside the parameters and thinking this can morph into a DC snowstorm...there is nothing that suggests that..at least yet...Assuming that the optimism is restricted to the idea that we might get an interesting hybrid storm, I think this is a fun one to follow, especially since the models have had this storm for run after run I don't .. tho I did yesterday for the first time. Sadly, we still have to hear about his ramblings. It's not really just here. I spend a lot of time on Twitter and see the exact same stuff there. I think there is a chance we get some wintry precip out of it but there are a whole lot of unfounded ideas being thrown out everywhere. "It can't do that" or "the low will be on the coast but stronger" with no reasoning is just a waste of time to write and read. The ensemble means being consistently east of the ops is perhaps one reason not to toss it, along with a run like the new gfs... tho I suspect there are two camps giving a skewed view of reality on the means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I think its cute some of the things Ian gets his panties in a bunch about I've been doing this too long to find it enjoyable to read garbage posts. If people see a snowier solution etc I want to hear why.. not just "it's going to be snowier" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I'm liking that little shortwave on Christmas morning. Still too far out for details but I believe it has a better chance of flurries than any of the other of the systems on the radar. Yea, me too. It's the only reason the big storm midweek gives us a pretty solid mixed bag of goodies. It's nearly perfect at becoming our much needed 50-50. So, we root root root for xmas flurries so we can cash in with 1-2" front end snow that get's encrusted in .25-.5" of ice then gets a good soaking rain and then finally gets another inch of snow before complete glaciation. I have a lot invested in this stupid storm and I'm getting sucked right back in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I don't .. tho I did yesterday for the first time. Sadly, we still have to hear about his ramblings. It's not really just here. I spend a lot of time on Twitter and see the exact same stuff there. I think there is a chance we get some wintry precip out of it but there are a whole lot of unfounded ideas being thrown out everywhere. "It can't do that" or "the low will be on the coast but stronger" with no reasoning is just a waste of time to write and read. The ensemble means being consistently east of the ops is perhaps one reason not to toss it, along with a run like the new gfs... tho I suspect there are two camps giving a skewed view of reality on the means. the big thing to me from watching the models is that while a storm track to our west seems like a safe bet (anyone would be nuts to bet against it at this point), we are still seeing solutions that give some minor front end frozen even with a wrapped up low over Illinois....which suggests to me that we dont need a great storm track to get some interesting hybrid before we change over...a weaker low over Ohio would probably be enough and I am not skilled enough to say whether the pattern can support that but my guess is it can... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 the big thing to me from watching the models is that while a storm track to our west seems like a safe bet (anyone would be nuts to bet against it at this point), we are still seeing solutions that give some minor front end frozen even with a wrapped up low over Illinois....which suggests to me that we dont need a great storm track to get some interesting hybrid before we change over...a weaker low over Ohio would probably be enough and I am not skilled enough to say whether the pattern can support that but my guess is it can... i think someone can probably get some mixed precip with a west or east solution tho the ones that go way west and throw moisture way out ahead of it might not be right either. i've seen that before as well where that moisture area doesn't end up existing. i have no clue what will happen.. i agree the low is very likely to go to the west tho. any redevelopment is also unlikely to help us here imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I've been doing this too long to find it enjoyable to read garbage posts. If people see a snowier solution etc I want to hear why.. not just "it's going to be snowier" Ian you have to admit that its a riot reading Daves facebook page...some of the responses make me giggle for minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I usually am jealous when other parts of the country see snow and the mid Atlantic is left out, but it hasn't looked or felt like winter anywhere in so long that I find this encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 That's some of the hardest hit drought area. I'm not sure how much it drives any pattern but there is certainly some feedback.. It's good to see them get precip out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I'm all about the Chill storm, but maybe we should be paying attention nearer in. GFS, Euro and Canadian all have a Christmas Eve flizzard. It just seems like there's too much on the table to look beyond a few days. Of course, like every other weenie I'll continue to hang every six hour period on the latest model run, but I'm with you. I'm going to put my wish-energy into that flizzard becoming a four or five hour period of light snow. A little dusting Christmas morning with a residual flake or two would be extremely satisfying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Models showed us changing over and weather 53 said we would stay all snow and we did. Does he still post here? He nailed that one. I remember that storm well. It was a Sunday and for the days leading up to it, H was talking about the parameters the pressure had to be for us to get snow. He did nail that one, and the snow moved in from the sw and hit a wall just before DC around Ji-land. They got the most out of it, but I ended up with a solid 3". Great little storm. Someone said he posts occassionally under a different handle but I'm not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I like sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 the big thing to me from watching the models is that while a storm track to our west seems like a safe bet (anyone would be nuts to bet against it at this point), we are still seeing solutions that give some minor front end frozen even with a wrapped up low over Illinois....which suggests to me that we dont need a great storm track to get some interesting hybrid before we change over...a weaker low over Ohio would probably be enough and I am not skilled enough to say whether the pattern can support that but my guess is it can... I think we probably could see a weaker OH storm but kind of think the 18Z GFS is probably about as good as it can get though a weaker low certainly would probably keep the warm layer at bay a little longer. If the models weaken the upper low that now is parking near the maritimes then we'll probalby see another euro like solution on the next run or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Bring on severe weather season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Bring on severe weather season... Even if it sucks at least the snow wishcasters disappear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Even if it sucks at least the snow wishcasters disappear. I'm wearing out, I need to either have a storm to write a CWG article about or to take a short sabbatical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I'm wearing out, I need to either have a storm to write a CWG article about or to take a short sabbatical. I always think it's silly when people say we just need some snow but at this point I think it's partly true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baldereagle Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 well, i think it's going to be snow ier next month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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