clueless Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 My daughter was chatting about the chances of snow next week. Maybe the flizzard will make everyone happy, if it materializes at all in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I'm tossing the gfs and euro. Both are meteorological impossibilities. No way this storm is cutting when there's never been anything to stop it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I'm tossing the gfs and euro. Both are meteorological impossibilities. No way this storm is cutting when there's never been anything to stop it. solid plan. Rain it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Time for a road trip to Chicago next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Time for a road trip to Chicago next week. Jan will be rockin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Jan will be rockin' For Chicago and Omaha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Time for a road trip to Chicago next week. Sure looks like it. Overall the pattern still doesn't seem to want to give us love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Sure looks like it. Overall the pattern still doesn't seem to want to give us love. meh, i dont mind 50 degree December days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 What does one need to do to make the PNA go positive? I'm willing to give it a try. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 52 out and dark clouds starting to come in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 What does one need to do to make the PNA go positive? I'm willing to give it a try. Beats me but the 384 hr ens mean from 12Z had the PNA looking pretty neutral and the blocking in the east near greenland looking pretty good so even with the bad euro and GFS run, I think there is hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 meh, i dont mind 50 degree December days I don't either though I do wish we had gotten a little snow for Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I don't either though I do wish we had gotten a little snow for Christmas. well maybe mother nature will surprise us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Beats me but the 384 hr ens mean from 12Z had the PNA looking pretty neutral and the blocking in the east near greenland looking pretty good so even with the bad euro and GFS run, I think there is hope. Hope...it's all we got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 That said, I have a (first) little girl due to come in a little under five weeks. That puts us smack in the middle of peak winter climo, and I certainly wouldn't be opposed to having a snowbaby... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 That said, I have a (first) little girl due to come in a little under five weeks. That puts us smack in the middle of peak winter climo, and I certainly wouldn't be opposed to having a snowbaby... Congrats. Lots of babies happening around here lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Beats me but the 384 hr ens mean from 12Z had the PNA looking pretty neutral and the blocking in the east near greenland looking pretty good so even with the bad euro and GFS run, I think there is hope. Weenie hope has a permanent residence at 384 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Beats me but the 384 hr ens mean from 12Z had the PNA looking pretty neutral and the blocking in the east near greenland looking pretty good so even with the bad euro and GFS run, I think there is hope. So in other words in 16 days we will still be crying about rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Congrats. Lots of babies happening around here lately Thanks! Yeah..it does seem like there are a good few of us bringing home babies this winter. A snowbaby would be awesome, as would having a storm while I'm on paternity leave! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Thanks! Yeah..it does seem like there are a good few of us bringing home babies this winter. A snowbaby would be awesome, as would having a storm while I'm on paternity leave! Thats what I am hoping for. Give me 50 degrees and sun on the D-Day (whenever that is)... but give me snow while I'm home everyday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Now that I made my eyes hurt looking at raleigh's euro maps it isn't as bad as I thought. No torches anywhere from what I can see. We're moving into the coldest normal highs of the year too. We're at a time when things don't need to be perfect to snow. Good: No torch Active precip pattern Coldest climo windo Bad: No cold Lotsa rain Average highs still 10 degrees above freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 here's a post i did about december warmth rolled over. i didn't have a ton of time, but there was no real major signal.. other than perhaps recent warm decembers tending to lead to warm jan-febs more often than the overall record which is close to half and half. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/december-warmth-in-dc-and-its-signal-for-temperatures-the-rest-of-winter/2012/12/19/ae24f94a-4989-11e2-b6f0-e851e741d196_blog.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 So in other words in 16 days we will still be crying about rain. Will give you middle name of Ji for this. Except that was what popped into my mind as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 how weird is it to have the ao so negative for the month with almost the whole country above normal tempwise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 19, 2012 Author Share Posted December 19, 2012 how weird is it to have the ao so negative for the month with almost the whole country above normal tempwise? And the NAO to go with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 December of 1996 had a NAO of -1.41, AO of -1.721, and PNA of -1.23 and it looked like this: I pulled a list of winter months that featured an AO of -1.5 or lower and PNA of -1.0 or lower. Not a lot of instances but there are some for sure. I looked at temp anoms for each and it's a mixed bag. Some above normal and some around normal. Very few below normal though. The significance of a -pna in tandem with a -ao is definitely worth taking note of. Here's the list in case anyone wants to disect it: Dec 61 Dec 96 Dec 10 Jan 69 Feb 55 Feb 56 Feb 57 Feb 66 Feb 69 Since there were 5 in Feb I pulled the temp composite for the years and it looks like this: Pretty obvious this pattern can suck and we definitely don't want it to continue. Winter of 68-69 was dominated by a -ao and -pna from start to finish. It wasn't a warm winter though. Just about average. I have no idea about snowfall but it was a nino so it probably doesn't compare well at all. 96-97 was a cold neutral enso year following a Nina. Analog? Not really IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 how weird is it to have the ao so negative for the month with almost the whole country above normal tempwise? Because predicting the atmosphere is much more complicated than putting together a bunch of random indicies and calling it a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Now that I made my eyes hurt looking at raleigh's euro maps it isn't as bad as I thought. No torches anywhere from what I can see. We're moving into the coldest normal highs of the year too. We're at a time when things don't need to be perfect to snow. Good: No torch Active precip pattern Coldest climo windo Bad: No cold Lotsa rain Average highs still 10 degrees above freezing Don't worry in 12 hours it will show the exact opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 It's sad how there was hope back in November for a cold pattern to set up, at least for a few days or a week in December, and that never materialized. As has happened all to often, once again, we are having to punt on a winter month, and are left hoping that the cold and stormy pattern showing 10 days out can somehow become reality. Feels like we have been in this same situation so many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 It's gonna be cold and windy here this weekend. High wind watch up with gusts as high as 60mph possible. Too bad I'll be in Richmond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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