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December Obs and Banter


WinterWxLuvr

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What's up with mets publicly saying the storm next week still has potential? If there was large spread or uncertainty then yea but the only uncertainty I see is how cold or warm our rain is going to be.

I think most are saying it will most likely be rain but the facebook crowd seems to constantly shoot for the stars. Some of them have a history of riding their horse until it dies.

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That's going to be one BIG baby.

10 pounder on the way?

I seriously hope not

but I seriously need it to snow, I think its waiting on that. Also, tomorrow is a no go. Friday at the earliest, Sunday at the latest (unless by some miracle I go on my own before then)

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I think most are saying it will most likely be rain but the facebook crowd seems to constantly shoot for the stars. Some of them have a history of riding their horse until it dies.

Gotchya. I don't do the facebook weatherman following thing so all I know is what folks on here post irt to facebook. Seems like a few mets are posting a bit irrationally at this point. But I sure do hope they are right. LOL

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I seriously hope not

but I seriously need it to snow, I think its waiting on that. Also, tomorrow is a no go. Friday at the earliest, Sunday at the latest (unless by some miracle I go on my own before then)

My original guess was that it's a girl because of the month being born but now that it's being stubborn letting go of mom it's probably a boy. LOL

Pretty crazy time ahead of you. The first month after delivery is indescribable. Every day that goes by the bond between you and your newborn grows stronger. It's really hard explain with words.

We all have our fingers crossed for a safe and healthy delivery!

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Gotchya. I don't do the facebook weatherman following thing so all I know is what folks on here post irt to facebook. Seems like a few mets are posting a bit irrationally at this point. But I sure do hope they are right. LOL

Still don't get how some mets have such a huge following by pandering above all else. I mean, maybe they are truly as bad of forecasters as they come across but I'm sot of skeptical.

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Still don't get how some mets have such a huge following by pandering above all else. I mean, maybe they are truly as bad of forecasters as they come across but I'm sot of skeptical.

Weenies are some of the easiest folks in the world to win over. Just say "it gon snow" and watch your likes ratchet up like the national debt.

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Still don't get how some mets have such a huge following by pandering above all else. I mean, maybe they are truly as bad of forecasters as they come across but I'm sot of skeptical.

I've wondered about that also and can't see how some would keep a job if they were making actual forecasts for clients. I've even wondered whether WeatherBell might be subsidized by someone like the Heartland foundation. They probably aren't but their thoughts on GW certainly would fit. Anyway, it is interesting that the facebook crowd seem to go out on a limb more than most other mets.

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I just want to see snow this weekend up at SnowShoe wv. Damn it. I'm not asking for a lot

I'd leave Thursday, the roads will be horrible friday and saturday. You'll see plenty of snow! I live in Pocahontas County and unfortunately have to leave thurs to get back for the holidays. Can't risk leaving on Friday, the weather in the highlands is pretty unforgiving.

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you know what man? Ive had. Dec is plus 7....another ****ty winter month. the pattern change keeps getting pushed back. Even todays CFSv2 got warmer for week3and4. They are still cold but not as cold. Its not happening. Winter is fooking over

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JMA shows the most realistic solution. Would imply a winter storm/ice storm. 192 has low over 993 low in Alabama which good CAD signature and tons of precip in our area. 850 line is in northern Maryland but probably cold enough at surface for ice

Must be JB's model of choice right now. What's the Brazilian meteogram say?

When I was looking through the gfs surface wind and temp maps I noticed it at well. It's something worth mentioning and keeping an eye on. It's not a cliche to say CAD overperforms compared to the globals. I think the NAM is probably the only model that does a pretty good job with the finer details. And were a long long time away from the NAM telling us what to expect.

The finer details of the departing low ne of NE and the hp sandwiched in between won't be resolved for a long time. Could trend either way. If we get .25" of ice can I claim victory? LOL

Agreed. Overperforming CAD is not just a weenie-ism, especially with a ~1035-1040mb arctic banana high in Canada. I extrapolated the NAM and it looked SPECTACULAR.

I think if we get a little snow turning to an advisory-level icing event before some rain, I'd be quite content.

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My original guess was that it's a girl because of the month being born but now that it's being stubborn letting go of mom it's probably a boy. LOL

Pretty crazy time ahead of you. The first month after delivery is indescribable. Every day that goes by the bond between you and your newborn grows stronger. It's really hard explain with words.

We all have our fingers crossed for a safe and healthy delivery!

thank you! :hug:

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Must be JB's model of choice right now. What's the Brazilian meteogram say?

Agreed. Overperforming CAD is not just a weenie-ism, especially with a ~1035-1040mb arctic banana high in Canada. I extrapolated the NAM and it looked SPECTACULAR.

I think if we get a little snow turning to an advisory-level icing event before some rain, I'd be quite content.

Me too, and if we get a storm that is NOTHING like what is being advertised right now, will anyone be surprised.

This thing is still out there pretty far in the weather world.

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you know what man? Ive had. Dec is plus 7....another ****ty winter month. the pattern change keeps getting pushed back. Even todays CFSv2 got warmer for week3and4. They are still cold but not as cold. Its not happening. Winter is fooking over

I have to give it to you, this is probably the most well reasoned "winter's over" post you've ever made....congrats :clap:

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Must be JB's model of choice right now. What's the Brazilian meteogram say?

Agreed. Overperforming CAD is not just a weenie-ism, especially with a ~1035-1040mb arctic banana high in Canada. I extrapolated the NAM and it looked SPECTACULAR.

I think if we get a little snow turning to an advisory-level icing event before some rain, I'd be quite content.

Exactly. I've been told plenty of times not to read runs like a book in the LR so I've gotten so much better at looking at the features and understanding what *can* happen other than the verbatim op run. And in this specific case it's totally sensible to watch thermal profiles as much as surface low strength and track.

None of the systems leading up to this one have any type of cold air at all in leading up. The biggest difference next week is we get cold first. That's obviously not enough to hedge any bets but it certainly leaves the door open when it is firmly closed right now. All kinds of reasonable things can happen irt to what actually happens compared to what is progged. Fast and weaker is just one of the things that can put some snow and ice on the ground.

A little snow to ice sounds good to me too. I will gently pat myself on the back for picking out the window last week and then getting really really lucky after that. lol.

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I hope the rain is at least cold.....heck at this point i hope the rain is real....d to the t stubborn as always...of course it doesnt matter if the storm doesnt happen...he already laid out his IF and BUT scenario....winner either way.

That Harry Livingston dude on his fb page....lol....Ian control your brother will ya!

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Looks like Jon Jon back in action soon...

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA

247 PM EST TUE DEC 18 2012

MDZ001-WVZ023-041-190400-

/O.NEW.KPBZ.WS.A.0005.121221T0600Z-121223T0000Z/

GARRETT-PRESTON-TUCKER-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OAKLAND MD...GRANTSVILLE...KINGWOOD...

TERRA ALTA...PARSONS...DAVIS...THOMAS

247 PM EST TUE DEC 18 2012

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH

SATURDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER

STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH

SATURDAY EVENING.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...6 INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE.

* TIMING...LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

* IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW

AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

* WINDS...WEST TO NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...FALLING INTO THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES IN SNOW AND

BLOWING SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE

ACCUMULATION MAY SEVERELY IMPACT TRAVEL. PREPARE FOR WINTER

WEATHER AND MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS VIA THE NATIONAL WEATHER

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Looks like Jon Jon back in action soon...

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA

247 PM EST TUE DEC 18 2012

MDZ001-WVZ023-041-190400-

/O.NEW.KPBZ.WS.A.0005.121221T0600Z-121223T0000Z/

GARRETT-PRESTON-TUCKER-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OAKLAND MD...GRANTSVILLE...KINGWOOD...

TERRA ALTA...PARSONS...DAVIS...THOMAS

247 PM EST TUE DEC 18 2012

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH

SATURDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER

STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH

SATURDAY EVENING.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...6 INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE.

* TIMING...LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

* IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW

AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

* WINDS...WEST TO NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...FALLING INTO THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES IN SNOW AND

BLOWING SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE

ACCUMULATION MAY SEVERELY IMPACT TRAVEL. PREPARE FOR WINTER

WEATHER AND MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS VIA THE NATIONAL WEATHER

Just in time to give us a white Christmas! I was getting a little worried.

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