mappy Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 My original guess was that it's a girl because of the month being born but now that it's being stubborn letting go of mom it's probably a boy. LOL Pretty crazy time ahead of you. The first month after delivery is indescribable. Every day that goes by the bond between you and your newborn grows stronger. It's really hard explain with words. We all have our fingers crossed for a safe and healthy delivery! thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 Must be JB's model of choice right now. What's the Brazilian meteogram say? Agreed. Overperforming CAD is not just a weenie-ism, especially with a ~1035-1040mb arctic banana high in Canada. I extrapolated the NAM and it looked SPECTACULAR. I think if we get a little snow turning to an advisory-level icing event before some rain, I'd be quite content. Me too, and if we get a storm that is NOTHING like what is being advertised right now, will anyone be surprised. This thing is still out there pretty far in the weather world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 We have DT, JB and JB2 on our side? As the Germans would say, "Gott Mit Uns" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 We have DT, JB and JB2 on our side? As the Germans would say, "Gott Mit Uns" we also have Mike Macuso from Baltimore TV weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 you know what man? Ive had. Dec is plus 7....another ****ty winter month. the pattern change keeps getting pushed back. Even todays CFSv2 got warmer for week3and4. They are still cold but not as cold. Its not happening. Winter is fooking over I have to give it to you, this is probably the most well reasoned "winter's over" post you've ever made....congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 we also have Mike Macuso from Baltimore TV weather Is that the fellow from Channel 2 here?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Must be JB's model of choice right now. What's the Brazilian meteogram say? Agreed. Overperforming CAD is not just a weenie-ism, especially with a ~1035-1040mb arctic banana high in Canada. I extrapolated the NAM and it looked SPECTACULAR. I think if we get a little snow turning to an advisory-level icing event before some rain, I'd be quite content. Exactly. I've been told plenty of times not to read runs like a book in the LR so I've gotten so much better at looking at the features and understanding what *can* happen other than the verbatim op run. And in this specific case it's totally sensible to watch thermal profiles as much as surface low strength and track. None of the systems leading up to this one have any type of cold air at all in leading up. The biggest difference next week is we get cold first. That's obviously not enough to hedge any bets but it certainly leaves the door open when it is firmly closed right now. All kinds of reasonable things can happen irt to what actually happens compared to what is progged. Fast and weaker is just one of the things that can put some snow and ice on the ground. A little snow to ice sounds good to me too. I will gently pat myself on the back for picking out the window last week and then getting really really lucky after that. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 I hope the rain is at least cold.....heck at this point i hope the rain is real....d to the t stubborn as always...of course it doesnt matter if the storm doesnt happen...he already laid out his IF and BUT scenario....winner either way. That Harry Livingston dude on his fb page....lol....Ian control your brother will ya! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Looks like Jon Jon back in action soon... Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 247 PM EST TUE DEC 18 2012 MDZ001-WVZ023-041-190400- /O.NEW.KPBZ.WS.A.0005.121221T0600Z-121223T0000Z/ GARRETT-PRESTON-TUCKER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OAKLAND MD...GRANTSVILLE...KINGWOOD... TERRA ALTA...PARSONS...DAVIS...THOMAS 247 PM EST TUE DEC 18 2012 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...6 INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE. * TIMING...LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. * IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. * WINDS...WEST TO NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...FALLING INTO THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT. * VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATION MAY SEVERELY IMPACT TRAVEL. PREPARE FOR WINTER WEATHER AND MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS VIA THE NATIONAL WEATHER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Still nowhere near "derecho," but "rex block" is the social media hot new term this holiday season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Looks like Jon Jon back in action soon... Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 247 PM EST TUE DEC 18 2012 MDZ001-WVZ023-041-190400- /O.NEW.KPBZ.WS.A.0005.121221T0600Z-121223T0000Z/ GARRETT-PRESTON-TUCKER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OAKLAND MD...GRANTSVILLE...KINGWOOD... TERRA ALTA...PARSONS...DAVIS...THOMAS 247 PM EST TUE DEC 18 2012 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...6 INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE. * TIMING...LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. * IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. * WINDS...WEST TO NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...FALLING INTO THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT. * VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATION MAY SEVERELY IMPACT TRAVEL. PREPARE FOR WINTER WEATHER AND MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS VIA THE NATIONAL WEATHER Just in time to give us a white Christmas! I was getting a little worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 I have to give it to you, this is probably the most well reasoned "winter's over" post you've ever made....congrats Except that I don't buy it. I just posted this for tradition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 how many times has a cutter at day 8-10 become a snowstorm? i cant remember any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Quite a few because buckeye gets upset Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 So if we do get a miller type storm after TWC's Draco the storm we're talking about would be winter storm Euclid. For some reason I can't get used to named winter storms - I kinda prefer the DF/JB/Chill storm name. Euclid was the father of Geometry - maybe he can also be the Father of Weenies and Rex Blocks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I'd leave Thursday, the roads will be horrible friday and saturday. You'll see plenty of snow! I live in Pocahontas County and unfortunately have to leave thurs to get back for the holidays. Can't risk leaving on Friday, the weather in the highlands is pretty unforgiving. Nah, It wont be that bad. I used to live in Western MD, Im used to the LES blowing snow all over the place. WVDOT isnt like VDOT say in Richmond where they dont know how to handle it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Wind Advisory/ High Wind Warning on Saturday, looks pretty dang breezy. 25-35 w/ gusts to 45-50, somewhere in that ballpark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Just in time to give us a white Christmas! I was getting a little worried. Nice we will be up there for new years. Maybe we can meet up at mutley's again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Quite a few because buckeye gets upset Exactly. It's happened numerous times. I've seen storms modeled in Minneapolis at this range end up becoming suppressed southern sliders where we still miss out on a storm but for completely opposite reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justaterp Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Looks like Jon Jon back in action soon... Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 247 PM EST TUE DEC 18 2012 MDZ001-WVZ023-041-190400- /O.NEW.KPBZ.WS.A.0005.121221T0600Z-121223T0000Z/ GARRETT-PRESTON-TUCKER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OAKLAND MD...GRANTSVILLE...KINGWOOD... TERRA ALTA...PARSONS...DAVIS...THOMAS 247 PM EST TUE DEC 18 2012 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...6 INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE. * TIMING...LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. * IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. I'm headed to McHenry Friday afternoon and really hope the forecast holds, even a little. I know the signals have been there for LES for a few days, so I'm pretty optimistic. I can't offer a thing in the way of analysis, but promise to post a few observations and pics over the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Exactly. It's happened numerous times. I've seen storms modeled in Minneapolis at this range end up becoming suppressed southern sliders where we still miss out on a storm but for completely opposite reasons. Agreed. Ian's weather memory is like that guy in memento. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I hope the rain is at least cold.....heck at this point i hope the rain is real....d to the t stubborn as always...of course it doesnt matter if the storm doesnt happen...he already laid out his IF and BUT scenario....winner either way. I'm just hoping there will be one Monday this month when I won't have to put on the AC at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Kind of a unique shot at Dulles this morning with the sun just starting to break through the fog and the dense fog on the South and East side of the airfield still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Ian, the early Nov storm this year that impacted NJ/NYC etc is only one off the top of my head...I do really like what I'm seeing for Early January...Though of course everything keeps being pushed back, we're seeing a gradual pattern step down change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I'm just hoping there will be one Monday this month when I won't have to put on the AC at night. I have to mow my lawn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Looks like Jon Jon back in action soon... Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 247 PM EST TUE DEC 18 2012 MDZ001-WVZ023-041-190400- /O.NEW.KPBZ.WS.A.0005.121221T0600Z-121223T0000Z/ GARRETT-PRESTON-TUCKER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OAKLAND MD...GRANTSVILLE...KINGWOOD... TERRA ALTA...PARSONS...DAVIS...THOMAS 247 PM EST TUE DEC 18 2012 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...6 INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE. * TIMING...LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. * IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. * WINDS...WEST TO NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...FALLING INTO THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT. * VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATION MAY SEVERELY IMPACT TRAVEL. PREPARE FOR WINTER WEATHER AND MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS VIA THE NATIONAL WEATHER Awesome! I'm off so likely to check it out. NWS Blacksburg issued a WSWa for Greenbrier and Summers for about the same thing so won't have to go far to see whiteness! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Agreed. Ian's weather memory is like that guy in memento. :-) You're really out to get me eh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Lulz at 0z GFS mega bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Lulz at 0z GFS mega bomb huge run to run changes and yet people analyze every panel at d7-10+ anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 i bet dt is declaring some sort of victory lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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