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December Obs and Banter


WinterWxLuvr

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Light drizzle this morning. We had a rainy afternoon and evening yesterday with a couple of brief heavy downpours, 0.41" as of this morning. December is turning out to be one of my wettest months this year...3.04" so far this month.

We are still under a half-inch for the month, which followed a very dry November, yet with the fog and warm weather everything is damp.

My wife is complaining about the lack of sustained frozen weather because she thinks that the bulbs she planted won't come up as well. I think that's the first time she has ever rooted for cold.

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The whole "GFS looks good before truncation" from last night is about word-for-word what DT posted on FB.

I know the guy is really good at big picture stuff but his ego gets in the way. Once he barks on something he has the hardest time backing off. If he had said that he thinks the post xmas storm was going to be a rainy cutter he would have been posting last night about how accurate that prediction is looking.

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I know the guy is really good at big picture stuff but his ego gets in the way. Once he barks on something he has the hardest time backing off. If he had said that he thinks the post xmas storm was going to be a rainy cutter he would have been posting last night about how accurate that prediction is looking.

Sure. But he deserves a bit of credit (at least more than JB gets), because he usually will say "uncle" when defeat is staring him in the face (although not always). He was deadset on a cutter for this week's storm, and then bailed when everything looked like a coastal for a few days...and turns out he should have stuck to his guns.

As Wes said, with a -PNA, the pattern favors cutters. As I said a few days ago, the block in Canada is make-or-break. Without that, we're warm and wet. DT has a point about models breaking down blocks too fast, but I'm not sure if it will make enough of a difference in the end to keep us on the cold and white side of things.

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Sure. But he deserves a bit of credit (at least more than JB gets), because he usually will say "uncle" when defeat is staring him in the face (although not always). He was deadset on a cutter for this week's storm, and then bailed when everything looked like a coastal for a few days...and turns out he should have stuck to his guns.

As Wes said, with a -PNA, the pattern favors cutters. As I said a few days ago, the block in Canada is make-or-break. Without that, we're warm and wet. DT has a point about models breaking down blocks too fast, but I'm not sure if it will make enough of a difference in the end to keep us on the cold and white side of things.

I do agree with you and DT is much more deserving of credit than anyone on the accuwx team. But to be honest. After the things I saw him say to people and how incredibly rude to people he can be back in the eastern days I can never give him my attention. He was aggressive with his insults and rudeness. I honestly think there is something wrong upstairs with that guy. People that behave in that way towards other people are pretty much unforgivable imo and I can't give them any of my attention. I've never been to his facebook page and the only times I hear anything about what he is saying is from posters here.

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FWIW 0z had a far better look to it than the 6z. If you look at the jet on the 0z there was potential there pre-truncation, the 6z went bonkers on the ridging in the east - and clearly closed the door on the potential. I guess there is hope that the models are having trouble with the Rex block, but the odds are clearly stacked against the storm at this point, particularly with the Euro ensembles shifting west overnight.

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Sure. But he deserves a bit of credit (at least more than JB gets), because he usually will say "uncle" when defeat is staring him in the face (although not always). He was deadset on a cutter for this week's storm, and then bailed when everything looked like a coastal for a few days...and turns out he should have stuck to his guns.

As Wes said, with a -PNA, the pattern favors cutters. As I said a few days ago, the block in Canada is make-or-break. Without that, we're warm and wet. DT has a point about models breaking down blocks too fast, but I'm not sure if it will make enough of a difference in the end to keep us on the cold and white side of things.

Good post. I agree about DT though occasionally he will pull a JB and stay with a solution way too long. The vortex that digs to Baffin Bay crushes the northern portion of the block (the ridge) and the maritimes low moves east plenty far enough on the progs to allow the cutter. It's pretty risky gainsaying almost all the models and the bulk of the ens member forecasts especially in an iffy pattern like this one. The one caveat I have about the statement about blocking is that the euro tends to like blocking highs and to me seems to have a bias in forecasting them. That's just anecdotal so my perception of that could be wrong.

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Headed to the 8th double digit positive departure day on the month.

We might get one double digit negative on Sunday or Monday (although probably not for DCA) if the arctic air ideas of the Euro or Canadian come true...maybe mid 30s for highs and near 20 for low?

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We might get one double digit negative on Sunday or Monday (although probably not for DCA) if the arctic air ideas of the Euro or Canadian come true...maybe mid 30s for highs and near 20 for low?

-10 seems like a tough haul right now. DCA is out. With the IAD cold pool, if we get a good radiation night there could be something on the order of 34/15 which would get us there.

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