ravensrule Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 We have a set of 13 year old twins an they were are 1st, but after that, it seemed like the singletons weren't hard at all, expecting # 7 in May. And I love the rent comment, so true. Wow congrats, you must not have a TV in your house . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXW176 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 FZFG Minus the FZ Serious lol. Nicely done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Serious lol. Nicely done. Thank you, Ill be here all week long, Try the veal 49* and .02 rainfall for the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Well this absolutely craptastic weather we have been having lately has brought on a nasty cold. Have been dealing with not breathing through my nose since Thursday. I usually suck it up but something has to give. Either stay cold and dry or just stay warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 0Z GFS looks beautiful pre-truncation, and it looks like the jet stream orientation would prevent the storm from coming too far north. This post christmas storm has loads of potential. Gonna be a fun week leading up to christmas and the BChill storm!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 If the 6z is credible it is not even cold on Xmas...typical mid-40s and partly cloudy. This is just a painful as last winter and maybe a bit more since expectations were a touch higher...I hope the ensembles look better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Actually looks like a big time winter storm pre truncation... Might have to ride the DT train on this one DT is always right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Light drizzle this morning. We had a rainy afternoon and evening yesterday with a couple of brief heavy downpours, 0.41" as of this morning. December is turning out to be one of my wettest months this year...3.04" so far this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Light drizzle this morning. We had a rainy afternoon and evening yesterday with a couple of brief heavy downpours, 0.41" as of this morning. December is turning out to be one of my wettest months this year...3.04" so far this month. We are still under a half-inch for the month, which followed a very dry November, yet with the fog and warm weather everything is damp. My wife is complaining about the lack of sustained frozen weather because she thinks that the bulbs she planted won't come up as well. I think that's the first time she has ever rooted for cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Beautiful day on board! Sun has broken out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 bad model reading by people thinking the gfs looks good pre truncation or whatever who shouldnt be posting FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 FYP Obviously you haven't popped yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Obviously you haven't popped yet. not yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 The whole "GFS looks good before truncation" from last night is about word-for-word what DT posted on FB. not yet That's going to be one BIG baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 10 pounder on the way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 The whole "GFS looks good before truncation" from last night is about word-for-word what DT posted on FB. I know the guy is really good at big picture stuff but his ego gets in the way. Once he barks on something he has the hardest time backing off. If he had said that he thinks the post xmas storm was going to be a rainy cutter he would have been posting last night about how accurate that prediction is looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 I know the guy is really good at big picture stuff but his ego gets in the way. Once he barks on something he has the hardest time backing off. If he had said that he thinks the post xmas storm was going to be a rainy cutter he would have been posting last night about how accurate that prediction is looking. Sure. But he deserves a bit of credit (at least more than JB gets), because he usually will say "uncle" when defeat is staring him in the face (although not always). He was deadset on a cutter for this week's storm, and then bailed when everything looked like a coastal for a few days...and turns out he should have stuck to his guns. As Wes said, with a -PNA, the pattern favors cutters. As I said a few days ago, the block in Canada is make-or-break. Without that, we're warm and wet. DT has a point about models breaking down blocks too fast, but I'm not sure if it will make enough of a difference in the end to keep us on the cold and white side of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Sure. But he deserves a bit of credit (at least more than JB gets), because he usually will say "uncle" when defeat is staring him in the face (although not always). He was deadset on a cutter for this week's storm, and then bailed when everything looked like a coastal for a few days...and turns out he should have stuck to his guns. As Wes said, with a -PNA, the pattern favors cutters. As I said a few days ago, the block in Canada is make-or-break. Without that, we're warm and wet. DT has a point about models breaking down blocks too fast, but I'm not sure if it will make enough of a difference in the end to keep us on the cold and white side of things. I do agree with you and DT is much more deserving of credit than anyone on the accuwx team. But to be honest. After the things I saw him say to people and how incredibly rude to people he can be back in the eastern days I can never give him my attention. He was aggressive with his insults and rudeness. I honestly think there is something wrong upstairs with that guy. People that behave in that way towards other people are pretty much unforgivable imo and I can't give them any of my attention. I've never been to his facebook page and the only times I hear anything about what he is saying is from posters here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 FWIW 0z had a far better look to it than the 6z. If you look at the jet on the 0z there was potential there pre-truncation, the 6z went bonkers on the ridging in the east - and clearly closed the door on the potential. I guess there is hope that the models are having trouble with the Rex block, but the odds are clearly stacked against the storm at this point, particularly with the Euro ensembles shifting west overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Sure. But he deserves a bit of credit (at least more than JB gets), because he usually will say "uncle" when defeat is staring him in the face (although not always). He was deadset on a cutter for this week's storm, and then bailed when everything looked like a coastal for a few days...and turns out he should have stuck to his guns. As Wes said, with a -PNA, the pattern favors cutters. As I said a few days ago, the block in Canada is make-or-break. Without that, we're warm and wet. DT has a point about models breaking down blocks too fast, but I'm not sure if it will make enough of a difference in the end to keep us on the cold and white side of things. Good post. I agree about DT though occasionally he will pull a JB and stay with a solution way too long. The vortex that digs to Baffin Bay crushes the northern portion of the block (the ridge) and the maritimes low moves east plenty far enough on the progs to allow the cutter. It's pretty risky gainsaying almost all the models and the bulk of the ens member forecasts especially in an iffy pattern like this one. The one caveat I have about the statement about blocking is that the euro tends to like blocking highs and to me seems to have a bias in forecasting them. That's just anecdotal so my perception of that could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Spring is here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Spring is here Headed to the 8th double digit positive departure day on the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Headed to the 8th double digit positive departure day on the month. We might get one double digit negative on Sunday or Monday (although probably not for DCA) if the arctic air ideas of the Euro or Canadian come true...maybe mid 30s for highs and near 20 for low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 We might get one double digit negative on Sunday or Monday (although probably not for DCA) if the arctic air ideas of the Euro or Canadian come true...maybe mid 30s for highs and near 20 for low? -10 seems like a tough haul right now. DCA is out. With the IAD cold pool, if we get a good radiation night there could be something on the order of 34/15 which would get us there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Spring is here Awesome weather. Canceling winter. We got a short window coming up of cold. Then looks like we warm and then...well...why torture ourselves? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 The record for today is 74 set in 2006. Imagine the weenie lamentations back then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 I'm all for a period of good cold a some point. It'll help my garlic bulb out better in spring/summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 jonjon will get some serious upslope LES from Thursday to Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Can't rule out flurries this weekend with what the gfs is showing. Baby steps.... I'd be thrilled with a 5 minute period of sn or +sn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 The record for today is 74 set in 2006. Imagine the weenie lamentations back then. we don't have to imagine....we were all despondent, especially since there were no signs of hope (which ended up proving correct) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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