kurtstack Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I agree with Leesburg, I'm just looking for a little front end snow, even if it turns to a nasty ice/rain event. At this point we have a decent storm coming 12/26 period that can go miller A, Miller B or lakes. My odds are on the lakes scenario until I see the pattern is capable of something else, but that could still get us a front end thump with the CAD signature. It's an interesting storm to follow, better than anything we've had on the models so far this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I could have sworn having 45 people look at the same period 20 days out would have curtailed storm names. How stupid of me. I can't wait for the Ian storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Seems to me that the fog is getting thicker as we move into the early afternoon hours. Lots of delays at BWI today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I can't wait for the Ian storm. I'm calling the first 10 days of Feb. Always good for a threat at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I'm calling the first 10 days of Feb. Always good for a threat at least. I really like the January 20 - February 15 period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 When in doubt or if the models suck as s.....go climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 feels like spring 50 fog no jacket again 50 is not spring, unfortunately for these times it is a normal winter day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I'm just hoping for a sub 50 degree day before xmas.. might be tight.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I'm just hoping for a sub 50 degree day before xmas.. might be tight.. As they say in Connecticut....move North where the rain is colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 So did last nights euro and ensembles really show some wintry precip around here just after Christmas or is d to the t smoking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 So did last nights euro and ensembles really show some wintry precip around here just after Christmas or is d to the t smoking I'm looking at the euro now....out to 180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I'm looking at the euro now....out to 180 Cool...and I know it's fruitless to worry about anything that far in the distance...was just wondering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 looks like a post christmas disaster on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 looks like a post christmas disaster on the euro Cutter? or DT and BChill nailing it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Cutter? or DT and BChill nailing it? maybe not a full blown cutter as it looks like it'll try to redevelop offshore at the end of the run tho it pumps plenty of warm air in first and the primary 500 low is so strong not sure how much redev would help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 the bowling ball mostly moving due east at 240 thru ky so perhaps it could track favorably tho verbatim it's just a big dumping of rain locally. pa probably gets snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 maybe not a full blown cutter as it looks like it'll try to redevelop offshore at the end of the run tho it pumps plenty of warm air in first and the primary 500 low is so strong not sure how much redev would help. Matt says the cold air damming signature is pretty strong on the 26th so maybe we get ice or front end snow before the rain. That's probably our best chance. Course I'm saying that without actually seeing the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Matt says the cold air damming signature is pretty strong on the 26th so maybe we get ice or front end snow before the rain. That's probably our best chance. Course I'm saying that without actually seeing the Euro. yeah initially at least. elevation gets some snow on this run.. sw va, w nc, sw pa etc. for this range i suppose it's fine since it's going to change at least 20 times.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 yeah initially at least. elevation gets some snow on this run.. sw va, w nc, sw pa etc. for this range i suppose it's fine since it's going to change at least 20 times.. yes...at least it is something to keep us occupied even though it will probably be rain...the ULL is still in western KY when the run ends....at least it looks like a monster complex...which makes it interesting...plus cold air in place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Yeah, I don't know what the surface temps are, but there's certainly a good CAD signal as Matt said with a banana high to the north. Just sort of bowling ball's to the east...850 0C line is right along the Mason-Dixon by 240hr (farther north at 216hr). Without seeing surface temps (and doing some quasi-futile extrapolation), maybe an ice-to-rain-ending-as-snow event? Maybe we'd get in on snow after 240hr if that transfers to the coast. One good sign on the Euro is it brings the arctic air back into the picture over the weekend into Christmas Eve/Christmas morning. So, we should have a good cold/dry antecedent air mass if that happens. With the high placement, definitely an icing scenario on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 yes...at least it is something to keep us occupied even though it will probably be rain...the ULL is still in western KY when the run ends....at least it looks like a monster complex...which makes it interesting...plus cold air in place i didnt look at last night's run so maybe not a "disaster" but it's all rain here at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 i didnt look at last night's run so maybe not a "disaster" but it's all rain here at least. yes...until the run cuts off....though that CAD signal is enormous for a global model at 10 days....it has <32 temps in SC in the middle of the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 yes...until the run cuts off....though that CAD signal is enormous for a global model at 10 days....it has <32 temps in SC in the middle of the day when? i dont see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 when? i dont see that. 12/26...CAD has it below 32 just to the NC/SC border...(in the western parts of the state of course..in the typical CAD regions)...it is silly because it is 10 days away, but this could be a decent ice event for SW VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 12/26...CAD has it below 32 just to the NC/SC border...(in the western parts of the state of course..in the typical CAD regions)...it is silly because it is 10 days away, but this could be a decent ice event for SW VA It's interesting anyway, to me the 500 being such a big massive bowling ball so far south is kind of weird looking. I don't like weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 It's interesting anyway, to me the 500 being such a big massive bowling ball so far south is kind of weird looking. I don't like weird. my bar is set so low, I like anything that isn't a quasi-dry frontal passage that is 68 degrees ahead of the front and highs in the upper 40s behind it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 How long has it been since this area has received a good icing event? I remember getting quite a few when I was living in the susquehanna valley in PA during the early part of the 2000s, but not so much since moving back into the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 12/26...CAD has it below 32 just to the NC/SC border...(in the western parts of the state of course..in the typical CAD regions)...it is silly because it is 10 days away, but this could be a decent ice event for SW VA ok maybe misinterpreted the first post. i do see the sub 32 hugging the mtns down to about the border. sw va does stay quite cold thru the day. and yeah.. sorta silly. It's interesting anyway, to me the 500 being such a big massive bowling ball so far south is kind of weird looking. I don't like weird. it is weird.. initially tracks pretty hard NE from TX to KY then just starts going east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Yeah, I don't know what the surface temps are, but there's certainly a good CAD signal as Matt said with a banana high to the north. Just sort of bowling ball's to the east...850 0C line is right along the Mason-Dixon by 240hr (farther north at 216hr). Without seeing surface temps (and doing some quasi-futile extrapolation), maybe an ice-to-rain-ending-as-snow event? Maybe we'd get in on snow after 240hr if that transfers to the coast. One good sign on the Euro is it brings the arctic air back into the picture over the weekend into Christmas Eve/Christmas morning. So, we should have a good cold/dry antecedent air mass if that happens. With the high placement, definitely an icing scenario on the table. I was thinking that some of you down there who want to see snow could probably take a trip to Garrett County - it's a pretty decent lake effect/upslope scenario, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 It's interesting anyway, to me the 500 being such a big massive bowling ball so far south is kind of weird looking. I don't like weird. I thought the same thing, I can't remember seeing anything like that before. A 528dm cutoff low with -15°C @ 850mb over Alabama? Not likely. Chalk one up one to the looney bin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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