aldie 22 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I'm just hoping for a sub 50 degree day before xmas.. might be tight.. As they say in Connecticut....move North where the rain is colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 So did last nights euro and ensembles really show some wintry precip around here just after Christmas or is d to the t smoking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I'm looking at the euro now....out to 180 Cool...and I know it's fruitless to worry about anything that far in the distance...was just wondering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 looks like a post christmas disaster on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 looks like a post christmas disaster on the euro Cutter? or DT and BChill nailing it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Cutter? or DT and BChill nailing it? maybe not a full blown cutter as it looks like it'll try to redevelop offshore at the end of the run tho it pumps plenty of warm air in first and the primary 500 low is so strong not sure how much redev would help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 the bowling ball mostly moving due east at 240 thru ky so perhaps it could track favorably tho verbatim it's just a big dumping of rain locally. pa probably gets snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 maybe not a full blown cutter as it looks like it'll try to redevelop offshore at the end of the run tho it pumps plenty of warm air in first and the primary 500 low is so strong not sure how much redev would help. Matt says the cold air damming signature is pretty strong on the 26th so maybe we get ice or front end snow before the rain. That's probably our best chance. Course I'm saying that without actually seeing the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Matt says the cold air damming signature is pretty strong on the 26th so maybe we get ice or front end snow before the rain. That's probably our best chance. Course I'm saying that without actually seeing the Euro. yeah initially at least. elevation gets some snow on this run.. sw va, w nc, sw pa etc. for this range i suppose it's fine since it's going to change at least 20 times.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Yeah, I don't know what the surface temps are, but there's certainly a good CAD signal as Matt said with a banana high to the north. Just sort of bowling ball's to the east...850 0C line is right along the Mason-Dixon by 240hr (farther north at 216hr). Without seeing surface temps (and doing some quasi-futile extrapolation), maybe an ice-to-rain-ending-as-snow event? Maybe we'd get in on snow after 240hr if that transfers to the coast. One good sign on the Euro is it brings the arctic air back into the picture over the weekend into Christmas Eve/Christmas morning. So, we should have a good cold/dry antecedent air mass if that happens. With the high placement, definitely an icing scenario on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 yes...at least it is something to keep us occupied even though it will probably be rain...the ULL is still in western KY when the run ends....at least it looks like a monster complex...which makes it interesting...plus cold air in place i didnt look at last night's run so maybe not a "disaster" but it's all rain here at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 yes...until the run cuts off....though that CAD signal is enormous for a global model at 10 days....it has <32 temps in SC in the middle of the day when? i dont see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 12/26...CAD has it below 32 just to the NC/SC border...(in the western parts of the state of course..in the typical CAD regions)...it is silly because it is 10 days away, but this could be a decent ice event for SW VA It's interesting anyway, to me the 500 being such a big massive bowling ball so far south is kind of weird looking. I don't like weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 How long has it been since this area has received a good icing event? I remember getting quite a few when I was living in the susquehanna valley in PA during the early part of the 2000s, but not so much since moving back into the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 12/26...CAD has it below 32 just to the NC/SC border...(in the western parts of the state of course..in the typical CAD regions)...it is silly because it is 10 days away, but this could be a decent ice event for SW VA ok maybe misinterpreted the first post. i do see the sub 32 hugging the mtns down to about the border. sw va does stay quite cold thru the day. and yeah.. sorta silly. It's interesting anyway, to me the 500 being such a big massive bowling ball so far south is kind of weird looking. I don't like weird. it is weird.. initially tracks pretty hard NE from TX to KY then just starts going east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Yeah, I don't know what the surface temps are, but there's certainly a good CAD signal as Matt said with a banana high to the north. Just sort of bowling ball's to the east...850 0C line is right along the Mason-Dixon by 240hr (farther north at 216hr). Without seeing surface temps (and doing some quasi-futile extrapolation), maybe an ice-to-rain-ending-as-snow event? Maybe we'd get in on snow after 240hr if that transfers to the coast. One good sign on the Euro is it brings the arctic air back into the picture over the weekend into Christmas Eve/Christmas morning. So, we should have a good cold/dry antecedent air mass if that happens. With the high placement, definitely an icing scenario on the table. I was thinking that some of you down there who want to see snow could probably take a trip to Garrett County - it's a pretty decent lake effect/upslope scenario, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 It's interesting anyway, to me the 500 being such a big massive bowling ball so far south is kind of weird looking. I don't like weird. I thought the same thing, I can't remember seeing anything like that before. A 528dm cutoff low with -15°C @ 850mb over Alabama? Not likely. Chalk one up one to the looney bin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I was thinking that some of you down there who want to see snow could probably take a trip to Garrett County - it's a pretty decent lake effect/upslope scenario, correct? It is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I thought the same thing, I can't remember seeing anything like that before. A 528dm cutoff low with -15°C @ 850mb over Alabama? Not likely. Chalk one up one to the looney bin. Though not often that cold, the Euro often places cut off ULL's in the Southwest. Then again, like many of the cold signals we've seen in the modeling over the last several weeks, it is day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I can't believe how foggy it's been all day. I can't remember the last time it was like this. Then again I wasn't really keeping track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I can't believe how foggy it's been all day. I can't remember the last time it was like this. Then again I wasn't really keeping track Air traffic is a mess. Looked on BWIs website again and the arrival board is filled with cancellations and delays. No better on the departures either. Last Monday when it was very foggy in the morning my flight was at least able to take off, but nothing was being allowed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Air traffic is a mess. Looked on BWIs website again and the arrival board is filled with cancellations and delays. No better on the departures either. Last Monday when it was very foggy in the morning my flight was at least able to take off, but nothing was being allowed in. There is no ground stop or ground delay in place at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 There is no ground stop or ground delay in place at this time. Ok, but there are still a bunch of long delays and even cancellations. How long do the airlines usually wait before deciding to cancel? and what is the general criteria for ground delays/stops? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 There is no ground stop or ground delay in place at this time. It ended at 4pm, per flightaware.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Ok, but there are still a bunch of long delays and even cancellations. How long do the airlines usually wait before deciding to cancel? and what is the general criteria for ground delays/stops? It depends on a lot of factors as to when to cancel a flight. Equipement, re bookings, pax, etc etc As for the criteria it is as follows: Ground Delay Program: Is used on a day like today frequently. You will need larger distance between take off and landing of aircraft due to the visibility/wx in this case today and not being able to use VFR vs ILS approaches. It also reduces the large number of aircraft approaching the airport around the same time such as BWI being a SWA hub. The United States also has a partnership with airports in Canada to be able to work together with the amount of flights between the 2 airports as well as to when issue Ground Delay programs. So in basic terms a Ground Delay means that departures will be delayed, but generally planes will be given a "wheels-up" time so that they can plan to depart at that time. Ground Stop: A Ground stop is used when wx or other wx related issues are affecting the airport and could affect arriving or departing flights. Any flight that is in the air to BWI could be diverted to a different airport and any aircraft at the airport of say TPA will stay at TPA till the Ground stop is lifted. It is mainly due to keep a backup on air traffic from circling and causing major delays. So in easier words a Ground Stop means no planes are leaving regardless... Essentially planes are put in queue until the ground stop is over... Most times ground stops are only for short periods of time and can end suddenly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 fog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 fog Mapbaby? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 What an abysmal day. The only way to make it worse would have been to drop the temp by 10-15 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 It's kind of a messy warm advection pattern. if you can handle sprinkles, I think you can get your 4 hour window. I've played there before, wonderful course! 11AM to 2 PM time frame looks to be your best bet, but it's still going to be cloudy and drizzly at times. Great call guys. Really appreciate it. It was a little foggy and drizzley at times but managed to play 63 holes in 5 hours with only getting wet feet. The drive home gave me a headache. Dark and foggy as crap from the park to well south of Westminster. Lots of oncoming traffic too. Glad I was in no rush to get home because driving fast in that stuff is just asking for it. Totally made a great day out of what many rated as crappy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Mapbaby? not yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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