Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 I've only been saying all along that there is a window post Xmas. That there is a good chance for a significant storm (of some sort). And there is some colder air than we've seen all season in our neighborhood. I've never said that it's like a classic setup or some sort of lock for snow. I believe I've done an "ok" job at identifying it and I would appreciate a token crumb of recognition even if we shovel an inch or 2 of water. Lol 6z gfs has a less than optimal vort track so its a rainer. However there's a 1036hp in a decent spot north of ME I would think (regardless of what the model shows) that there is support for a period of snow at the beginning. If we get any front end snow or the unusual wrap around stuff then I'm going to feel pretty good. If we get all snow then I retire. If nothing happens at all? Hey, I'm just a weenie. Go troll DT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Picked up 0.12" of rain last night. Just enough to get the ground wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 My God, this weather is BORING. 55 and party sunny or 55 and mostly cloudy. Wash, rinse, repeat. Hard to believe that we approach late December and there hasn't even been one noteable FROPA. Obviously, no big shock to not have a snowstorm yet, but not even a stray LES flake? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 I'll be there storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Need a favor from one of the short range guys. I'm trying to go up to Codorus st park and play disc golf before the rain tomorrow. The park is just over the PA line north of Westminster. Zones and discussions talk about rain not really hitting till 1. That's still kinda early because I won't get playing until 10:30. Really hoping for a 4 hour window or the drive may not be worth it. Can anyone provide thoughts irt when the more disruptive type of rain is gonna start up that way? I can handle some light rain but even then it's a pain in the ass with wet discs every throw. Any insight would be appreciated. Not sure whether I should chance it or not. It's a 75 minute drive for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Need a favor from one of the short range guys. I'm trying to go up to Codorus st park and play disc golf before the rain tomorrow. The park is just over the PA line north of Westminster. Zones and discussions talk about rain not really hitting till 1. That's still kinda early because I won't get playing until 10:30. Really hoping for a 4 hour window or the drive may not be worth it. Can anyone provide thoughts irt when the more disruptive type of rain is gonna start up that way? I can handle some light rain but even then it's a pain in the ass with wet discs every throw. Any insight would be appreciated. Not sure whether I should chance it or not. It's a 75 minute drive for me. It's kind of a messy warm advection pattern. if you can handle sprinkles, I think you can get your 4 hour window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 It's kind of a messy warm advection pattern. if you can handle sprinkles, I think you can get your 4 hour window. Thanks Wes. Do you think I can judge by looking at radar in the morning or will the showers be randomly popping early in the afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Need a favor from one of the short range guys. I'm trying to go up to Codorus st park and play disc golf before the rain tomorrow. The park is just over the PA line north of Westminster. Zones and discussions talk about rain not really hitting till 1. That's still kinda early because I won't get playing until 10:30. Really hoping for a 4 hour window or the drive may not be worth it. Can anyone provide thoughts irt when the more disruptive type of rain is gonna start up that way? I can handle some light rain but even then it's a pain in the ass with wet discs every throw. Any insight would be appreciated. Not sure whether I should chance it or not. It's a 75 minute drive for me. I've played there before, wonderful course! 11AM to 2 PM time frame looks to be your best bet, but it's still going to be cloudy and drizzly at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Thanks Wes. Do you think I can judge by looking at radar in the morning or will the showers be randomly popping early in the afternoon? I think you probably will be able to tell from radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I think you probably will be able to tell from radar. Will i be able to spot our snow on radar as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Snow lovers in the MA are like tropical snorkelers at the north pole... we live in an area that rarely meets our needs... one of the reasons I am working to move out west. NWS for Mount Rainer mid elevation 7-DAY FORECAST Tonight Snow. Low around 7. Windy, with a east wind 11 to 21 mph becoming south 22 to 32 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 46 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 22 to 28 inches possible. Monday Snow. High near 10. Windy, with a west southwest wind 34 to 39 mph, with gusts as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 14 to 20 inches possible. Monday Night Snow showers. Low around 5. West wind around 18 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 9 to 13 inches possible. Tuesday Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy and cold, with a high near 6. West southwest wind 14 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible. Tuesday Night Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 2. South southwest wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches possible. Wednesday Snow. High near 9. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 23 to 29 inches possible. Wednesday Night Snow. Low around 6. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 12 to 18 inches possible. Thursday Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 13. Thursday Night Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 8. Friday Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 11. Friday Night Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 7. Saturday Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Snow lovers in the MA are like tropical snorkelers at the north pole... we live in an area that rarely meets our needs... one of the reasons I am working to move out west. NWS for Mount Rainer mid elevation 7-DAY FORECAST Tonight Snow. Low around 7. Windy, with a east wind 11 to 21 mph becoming south 22 to 32 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 46 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 22 to 28 inches possible. Monday Snow. High near 10. Windy, with a west southwest wind 34 to 39 mph, with gusts as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 14 to 20 inches possible. Monday Night Snow showers. Low around 5. West wind around 18 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 9 to 13 inches possible. Tuesday Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy and cold, with a high near 6. West southwest wind 14 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible. Tuesday Night Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 2. South southwest wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches possible. Wednesday Snow. High near 9. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 23 to 29 inches possible. Wednesday Night Snow. Low around 6. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 12 to 18 inches possible. Thursday Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 13. Thursday Night Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 8. Friday Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 11. Friday Night Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 7. Saturday Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 14. The less you receive the more you appreciate. If I lived at Mt Rainer I would care less about snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Sure as hell nothing frozen in NE, I guess, that's a lot of rain falling in the Pats/49ers game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Sure as hell nothing frozen in NE, I guess, that's a lot of rain falling in the Pats/49ers game. Temps are in the teens and twenties in a good chunk of northern NH and Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I guess SNE, then, sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I've played there before, wonderful course! 11AM to 2 PM time frame looks to be your best bet, but it's still going to be cloudy and drizzly at times. I've played it twice before. Scenic and challenging. The X holes kick butt. Unless radar sucks in the morning I'm making a go of it. If its gonna be warm in Dec then I'm gonna make lemonade. Appreciate the insight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Fog is the word of the morning. Quarter mile at IAD now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 The less you receive the more you appreciate. If I lived at Mt Rainer I would care less about snow. I used to think that way too. Now I ask why if I love snow would I want to live in a climate that is mostly a boring disappointment ? So I can appreciate "less of what I love" ? I rather be in a place that rarely disappoints, celebrate, even get bored with abundance and appreciate that I no longer live in a climate that mostly doesn't meet my needs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Will i be able to spot our snow on radar as well. I didn't know northcentral Russia had HD doppler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Colder and flurries in the forecast for Friday...hoping for at least some white on the ground to get in the proper mood for Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Bout. 25 vis here this am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Fog is the word of the morning. Quarter mile at IAD now only outbound flights right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 And the 6z gfs tosses us a christmas clipper. Just misses to the N but plenty of time for it to dig. It gon snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 feels like spring 50 fog no jacket again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 And the 6z gfs tosses us a christmas clipper. Just misses to the N but plenty of time for it to dig. It gon snow Has the DT/Chill storm as a nasty cutter, but the 6z ensemble mean looks much nicer. Almost each member has a storm at the 26-27th, but there's still a lot of play in the outcome. On a good note, it looks like the Op's "cut it to Milwaukee" solution is the outlier. A fair number take it up towards the TN Valley and then transfer to the coast, some keep it south and turn it into a coastal. Even if it cuts, I think we have a decent chance at some front-end ice/snow with the high up to the north well-placed for CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I know it is LR and it will probably be different come the 12Z but I am a little surprised no one mentioned the Euro. Both the Euro Op and ensembles look very promising for an east coast storm. Both have low pressure in the gulf coast region, a decent high pressure to the north and a positively tilted trough hitting the Mississippi region with the op having a cutoff to boot. They also both feature a 50/50 low though it is moving out. Yeah, DT just referred to this post Christmas storm the Euro is showing as the "DT STORM". As far as I'm concerned Usedtobe already deemed the the "Bob Chill" storm. Oh the drama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I could have sworn having 45 people look at the same period 20 days out would have curtailed storm names. How stupid of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I think it is interesting that the signal for a storm just after Christmas has been on the models in some shape or form for many runs now. I understand that it is still a long way off and the prevailing thoughts are a chilly rain but honestly it's these types of storms/scenarios that are interesting to track and on occasion do pull a surprise. I for one would love to get a nice front end dump of an inch with a little icing then maybe rain if that is the most likely outcome. I have never been the big game hunter like others and have always enjoyed watching snow fall. Here's to a crazy week in my stores and on the models.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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