WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 One of the coldest mornings of the season throughout the area, and we're still going to post a +2-4 on the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 One of the coldest mornings of the season throughout the area, and we're still going to post a +2-4 on the day. Yep and even with the cold look of the euro ens at 240 hrs the anomalies over us are not that cold and would only suggest highs in the upper 30s. Still for us that would be chilly if the ens mean is close to being right which it may or may not be. I noted when looking at the CPC forecasts of the AO and NAO that by the end of the run that there were members strongly positive and strongly negative but that the pna index was pretty uniformly negative with maybe one member that barely gets positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I will say though thats a fairly consistent signal for something....rain or snow....around the 27th....would be a fun track if the cold signal delivers Pretty sad year when the only potential is a fantasy 13 day prog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 down to 19* here in the burg, with a heavy frost out there, looks nice this morning, refreshing when I went out for a few. Hoping for some good snows at Snowshoe next weekend when Im there, may be the only chance of seeing real snow before the end of the year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 The Long Term False hopes continue! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 The Long Term False hopes continue! lol I think the models are right irt having a chilly stretch around Christmas for a few days to a week. That's probably the only higher confidence call you can make. At the same time a couple systems come into socal and track across the sw. What happens with these (if they even exist)? Just about anything. Odds favor a cut to our west but it's so far out there that nobody can have any confidence whatsoever irt precip chances and type. Not even DT. The only reason I'm watching that time frame is because there is not a single other thing worth tracking. So my choices are limited. Keep an eye on lr potential or stop watching weather all together. I'm incapable of the latter so I'll stick with the former. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lisse Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Did I read that Chicago set a record for consecutive days without snow? Seems like a lot of us are in the same boat....tough stretch I guess...so glad there will be days and days of snow for some...makes it easier to sleep. I dunno. I was up there at Thanksgiving and there was snow in the air. I'd count that as snow! But maybe up in Chicagoland they have more stringent standards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I dunno. I was up there at Thanksgiving and there was snow in the air. I'd count that as snow! But maybe up in Chicagoland they have more stringent standards. Measurable snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 GFS pity flakes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Looks like days and days of snow might be changing to days and days of rain up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 GFS pity flakes! Apps will wring it out first. We're doomed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Looks like days and days of snow might be changing to days and days of rain up north. Sucks for them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Looks like days and days of snow might be changing to days and days of rain up north. It's really ugly for them all the way through Day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 GFS showing some healthy upslope/lake enhanced snows next weekend out this way. I hope its right, we really need it for our ski season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 GFS showing some healthy upslope/lake enhanced snows next weekend out this way. I hope its right, we really need it for our ski season. You guys would get hit good if that ull is that strong. Plenty of energy rotating around, very cold temps, and good fetch off the lakes. I got my fingers crossed for you guys. Your economy needs this much more than my weenieism needs it imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 GFS showing some healthy upslope/lake enhanced snows next weekend out this way. I hope its right, we really need it for our ski season. to hear that. Ill be at Snowshoe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 to hear that. Ill be at Snowshoe Bunny slope? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 From HM it is not looking pretty: Everything right now is "bogus" if you think about it. Do we have anything true? The MJO signal is bogus, the west based -NAO is really bogus and the modeling has been bogus. I'm still expecting my rainfall over the next 10 days and I'm not so sold on a cold finish; although, I can still support a gradient pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I speculated last week that it was possibly models mistaking a kelvin wave for the MJO and now I think that's right. The CHI fields are weak but divergent for a large longitude bound with various entities causing forcing / response in the EOFs. The 3 components are overlapping for MJO amplitude in phase 1 but it seems to be just a kelvin wave. Don't forget we also have Evan in the Central Pacific and westward waves initiating convection in between Evan and the Kelvin Wave. Overall, things are unorganized and not MJO like. I think the signal is bogus. I'm not sure if the first 5 sentences are english but the last one is pretty easy to understand. We're doomed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff B Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Thor's hammer just landed when HM last spoke...the crickets in the two most-active MA threads over the past 45 minutes is amazing. I knew from years of lurking how much we think of HM but wow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I think HM is getting excited for January though, if I read his other posts correctly, so maybe we got that going for us at least. GFS ensembles supportive of the DT post-Xmas storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2012 Author Share Posted December 14, 2012 What does the CRAS show? DGEX? NOGAPS? Do any show snow? That's the one I'm looking for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Thor's hammer just landed when HM last spoke...the crickets in the two most-active MA threads over the past 45 minutes is amazing. I knew from years of lurking how much we think of HM but wow... Nah, there's not much to talk about. 3 storms track to our west and then it gets cold and dry for christmas. Nothing new to discuss. Window of op still exists after christmas. How big the window is is anyone's guess. I'm a weenie so I say it looks "ok'. Hopefully Wes isn't around today. So far in the future that the details don't really matter. The euro will save us anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 GFS pity flakes! I'll take pity flakes,especially if 40 north gets rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I think HM is getting excited for January though, if I read his other posts correctly, so maybe we got that going for us at least. GFS ensembles supportive of the DT post-Xmas storm. He's liked January for a while. But it sounds like the weenie got the best of him on that quoted post. That, or he was mocking the negative posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 He's liked January for a while. But it sounds like the weenie got the best of him on that quoted post. That, or he was mocking the negative posts. And let's not forget that if the mjo isn't doing the 8-1-2 thing we'd much prefer to have it in the cod anyway. It's not like the mjo is the exclusive driver of our weather. Only matters when it's active and it hasn't been for a while. All HM was saying is that the current modeling of phase 1 may not mean anything. That's far from saying we're gonna torch while getting soaked. But we probably will anyway. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 hm also said we would have cold shots, in other words the weather will go back and forth. This might be the best we can hope for and just get lucky when we have the cold in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Bob's totally right about lake temps being warm, but so have surface temps on shore, and this season has sucked hard for LES so far. As a result, things have been pretty quiet in the WNY part of the Upstate forum. Last I checked, the Southtowns snow belt was already 12 inches behind normal snowfall to date. I don't think temps will be a problem for Southern Tier ski country but flow is harder to pin down. For the Chautauqua ridge, strong NW flow, preferably with a Huron/Georgian connection, is what you want. You may want to keep an eye on the comments section at WIVB (Buffalo) met Don Paul's blog. He doesn't add posts often, but he exchanges comments with readers many times a day. Since you have a trip planned, just ask him on his blog what he's seeing in the 2 week out models for ski country. He'll give you a pretty solid answer. Latest entry comments: http://blogs.wivb.co...think/#comments Hey...thanks a bunch..I will!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 GFS pity flakes! radio show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2012 Author Share Posted December 14, 2012 radio show? LOL, that's what they should do. A radio show about crappy weather. Reverse jinx, seems to always work with jinxing what we want to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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