Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,584
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

December Obs and Banter


WinterWxLuvr

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.9k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

One of the coldest mornings of the season throughout the area, and we're still going to post a +2-4 on the day.

Yep and even with the cold look of the euro ens at 240 hrs the anomalies over us are not that cold and would only suggest highs in the upper 30s. Still for us that would be chilly if the ens mean is close to being right which it may or may not be. I noted when looking at the CPC forecasts of the AO and NAO that by the end of the run that there were members strongly positive and strongly negative but that the pna index was pretty uniformly negative with maybe one member that barely gets positive.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Long Term False hopes continue!

lol

I think the models are right irt having a chilly stretch around Christmas for a few days to a week. That's probably the only higher confidence call you can make. At the same time a couple systems come into socal and track across the sw. What happens with these (if they even exist)? Just about anything.

Odds favor a cut to our west but it's so far out there that nobody can have any confidence whatsoever irt precip chances and type. Not even DT.

The only reason I'm watching that time frame is because there is not a single other thing worth tracking. So my choices are limited. Keep an eye on lr potential or stop watching weather all together. I'm incapable of the latter so I'll stick with the former.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Did I read that Chicago set a record for consecutive days without snow? Seems like a lot of us are in the same boat....tough stretch I guess...so glad there will be days and days of snow for some...makes it easier to sleep.

I dunno. I was up there at Thanksgiving and there was snow in the air. I'd count that as snow! But maybe up in Chicagoland they have more stringent standards.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

GFS showing some healthy upslope/lake enhanced snows next weekend out this way. I hope its right, we really need it for our ski season.

You guys would get hit good if that ull is that strong. Plenty of energy rotating around, very cold temps, and good fetch off the lakes. I got my fingers crossed for you guys. Your economy needs this much more than my weenieism needs it imby.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

From HM it is not looking pretty:

Everything right now is "bogus" if you think about it. Do we have anything true? The MJO signal is bogus, the west based -NAO is really bogus and the modeling has been bogus. I'm still expecting my rainfall over the next 10 days and I'm not so sold on a cold finish; although, I can still support a gradient pattern.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I speculated last week that it was possibly models mistaking a kelvin wave for the MJO and now I think that's right. The CHI fields are weak but divergent for a large longitude bound with various entities causing forcing / response in the EOFs. The 3 components are overlapping for MJO amplitude in phase 1 but it seems to be just a kelvin wave. Don't forget we also have Evan in the Central Pacific and westward waves initiating convection in between Evan and the Kelvin Wave. Overall, things are unorganized and not MJO like. I think the signal is bogus.

I'm not sure if the first 5 sentences are english but the last one is pretty easy to understand. We're doomed.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Thor's hammer just landed when HM last spoke...the crickets in the two most-active MA threads over the past 45 minutes is amazing. I knew from years of lurking how much we think of HM but wow...

Nah, there's not much to talk about. 3 storms track to our west and then it gets cold and dry for christmas. Nothing new to discuss. Window of op still exists after christmas. How big the window is is anyone's guess. I'm a weenie so I say it looks "ok'. Hopefully Wes isn't around today. So far in the future that the details don't really matter. The euro will save us anyway.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...