Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,584
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

December Obs and Banter


WinterWxLuvr

Recommended Posts

We've been consistently absent any snow for over two years so the expectaions should be that we won't get crap. When people keep talking and hyping up 10 day threats when all signs say not just yet it gets to be grating. And then getting all pu**y sore(not you specifically) when it doesn't pan out makes it less enjoyable.

weather is weather and we have a lot of winter left to go.

d10 on the euro is MONEY

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.9k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

We've been consistently absent any snow for over two years so the expectaions should be that we won't get crap. When people keep talking and hyping up 10 day threats when all signs say not just yet it gets to be grating. And then getting all pu**y sore(not you specifically) when it doesn't pan out makes it less enjoyable.

weather is weather and we have a lot of winter left to go.

To each his own, but it just doesn't bother me because I understand and accept the frustration.

We need some snow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I know the latest Euro is showing dry, but much colder weather to close out the year; however, can anyone with more knowledge tell me whether the Euro, as depicted, would give the areas in the lake effect snow belts any opportunities in that time frame? Are the 850's cold enough and the flow from the right direction? I am skiing in Western NY in that time frame. Thanks.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

CWG is going climo for a white christmas. Ask Ian about DC snow climo around the holidays. :grinch:

They were going above as of yesterday's "White Christmas Tracker." NWS played with the rules to get us to 15%.. silly government employees.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I know the latest Euro is showing dry, but much colder weather to close out the year; however, can anyone with more knowledge tell me whether the Euro, as depicted, would give the areas in the lake effect snow belts any opportunities in that time frame? Are the 850's cold enough and the flow from the right direction? I am skiing in Western NY in that time frame. Thanks.

I don't know the orographic climo of NY so much will depend on location and aspect of the ridges but yes, there is definitely a les look on both the gfs and euro. It would likely to be enhanced on the backside the the departing low d8 and beyond. I don't have access to surface maps with the euro but GFS shows a wnw-nw flow and a general area of light qpf in the lee of the lakes.

Much still up in the air but IF a decent slp wraps up and pulls ne then pieces of energy could easily rotate around with potential for lake enhancement. h5 maps on the gfs show some vorticity rotating around the vortex south of hudson bay but any details like that are useless to look at this far out. Just having the vortex spinning in that location would increase les chances.

Lakes are warmer than normal too and that can only help. IMO- if things go down as depicted on either the gfs or euro there will be a good round of les and upslope in vt. NY is tricky though because different areas are favored by different surface flow so you might want to pop into the upstate ny thread and ask some local mets and regulars. They can probably easily answer your question.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

They were going above as of yesterday's "White Christmas Tracker." NWS played with the rules to get us to 15%.. silly government employees.

jason called as he thought it should be lower as now the Euro no longer gives us anything. I'd go for no better than climo based on the D+11 five day centered mean as at that time range the mean usually will tell you more than any single ensemble mean from any single model. It's analogs were pretty horrid today and not so good yesterday.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

jason called as he thought it should be lower as now the Euro no longer gives us anything. I'd go for no better than climo based on the D+11 five day centered mean as at that time range the mean usually will tell you more than any single ensemble mean from any single model. It's analogs were pretty horrid today and not so good yesterday.

Yeah, I probably wouldn't have gone above to begin with. The Euro was never showing snow here. But, better to give weenies something to chew on than tell them their odds suck repeatedly I suppose. Who wants to hear we're on a once in 20 year schedule of late?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah, I probably wouldn't have gone above to begin with. The Euro was never showing snow here. But, better to give weenies something to chew on than tell them their odds suck repeatedly I suppose. Who wants to hear we're on a once in 20 year schedule of late?

I don't think that was the reason, Jason doesn't hype, that's why I like working with and for him.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...