Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 We've been consistently absent any snow for over two years so the expectaions should be that we won't get crap. When people keep talking and hyping up 10 day threats when all signs say not just yet it gets to be grating. And then getting all pu**y sore(not you specifically) when it doesn't pan out makes it less enjoyable. weather is weather and we have a lot of winter left to go. d10 on the euro is MONEY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 d10 on the euro is MONEY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I'm a flying monkey from the Wizard of Oz Those monkey's are awesome!!! Can you teach me how to fly? 46 degrees...some clouds and sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 minion opinion? lol I sent him a script earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I'm sure they will get snow out of this next week up North but man the eggnog must be spiked early up there the way one is posting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I sent him a script earlier Silly...he can't read....were there pictures? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Man...I am being completely disruptive today...sorry all...had some free time today. At least i kept it in the banter thread...seems like we need a banter thread separate from the obs thread...at least on days that I am home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Man...I am being completely disruptive today...sorry all...had some free time today. At least i kept it in the banter thread...seems like we need a banter thread separate from the obs thread...at least on days that I am home. No organic egg nog to stock? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 The whole day 10-16 roller coaster is lame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Silly...he can't read....were there pictures? Hi, i make maps/pictures for a living... so of course there were Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 The whole day 10-16 roller coaster is lame. so is ignoring text messages Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 so is ignoring text messages you already cost me a fortune last night. very cute... if you were a dog you might be like your dog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 No organic egg nog to stock? Plenty...my mommy needed me to drive her around...old people walk slow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 you already cost me a fortune last night. very cute... if you were a dog you might be like your dog. lame excuse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 We've been consistently absent any snow for over two years so the expectaions should be that we won't get crap. When people keep talking and hyping up 10 day threats when all signs say not just yet it gets to be grating. And then getting all pu**y sore(not you specifically) when it doesn't pan out makes it less enjoyable. weather is weather and we have a lot of winter left to go. To each his own, but it just doesn't bother me because I understand and accept the frustration. We need some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 lame excuse you know me. not responding to stuff. write me off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 you know me. not responding to stuff. write me off. literally loling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 The whole day 10-16 roller coaster is lame. Just knock us out with a 5 day rainstorm forecast and we're even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 13, 2012 Author Share Posted December 13, 2012 Mid Atlantic buzzword for 12-13...........10-15 day pattern. Today's 12z initialization on the Euro compared to its 216 hr forecast for 12z this morning..........it put North America in the right place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I know the latest Euro is showing dry, but much colder weather to close out the year; however, can anyone with more knowledge tell me whether the Euro, as depicted, would give the areas in the lake effect snow belts any opportunities in that time frame? Are the 850's cold enough and the flow from the right direction? I am skiing in Western NY in that time frame. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 At least its still early. December is a historically poor month for snow for our area anyways. Lets get this crappy pattern out of the way now and bring on the icebox for Jan/Feb. I still feel pretty good about mid/late winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 CWG is going climo for a white christmas. Ask Ian about DC snow climo around the holidays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 CWG is going climo for a white christmas. Ask Ian about DC snow climo around the holidays. I hope you did not start packing yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 CWG is going climo for a white christmas. Ask Ian about DC snow climo around the holidays. They were going above as of yesterday's "White Christmas Tracker." NWS played with the rules to get us to 15%.. silly government employees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 At least its still early. December is a historically poor month for snow for our area anyways. Lets get this crappy pattern out of the way now and bring on the icebox for Jan/Feb. I still feel pretty good about mid/late winter. Seriously. The median at DCA is less than an inch (using 30 or 60 years). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I know the latest Euro is showing dry, but much colder weather to close out the year; however, can anyone with more knowledge tell me whether the Euro, as depicted, would give the areas in the lake effect snow belts any opportunities in that time frame? Are the 850's cold enough and the flow from the right direction? I am skiing in Western NY in that time frame. Thanks. I don't know the orographic climo of NY so much will depend on location and aspect of the ridges but yes, there is definitely a les look on both the gfs and euro. It would likely to be enhanced on the backside the the departing low d8 and beyond. I don't have access to surface maps with the euro but GFS shows a wnw-nw flow and a general area of light qpf in the lee of the lakes. Much still up in the air but IF a decent slp wraps up and pulls ne then pieces of energy could easily rotate around with potential for lake enhancement. h5 maps on the gfs show some vorticity rotating around the vortex south of hudson bay but any details like that are useless to look at this far out. Just having the vortex spinning in that location would increase les chances. Lakes are warmer than normal too and that can only help. IMO- if things go down as depicted on either the gfs or euro there will be a good round of les and upslope in vt. NY is tricky though because different areas are favored by different surface flow so you might want to pop into the upstate ny thread and ask some local mets and regulars. They can probably easily answer your question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 They were going above as of yesterday's "White Christmas Tracker." NWS played with the rules to get us to 15%.. silly government employees. jason called as he thought it should be lower as now the Euro no longer gives us anything. I'd go for no better than climo based on the D+11 five day centered mean as at that time range the mean usually will tell you more than any single ensemble mean from any single model. It's analogs were pretty horrid today and not so good yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 jason called as he thought it should be lower as now the Euro no longer gives us anything. I'd go for no better than climo based on the D+11 five day centered mean as at that time range the mean usually will tell you more than any single ensemble mean from any single model. It's analogs were pretty horrid today and not so good yesterday. Yeah, I probably wouldn't have gone above to begin with. The Euro was never showing snow here. But, better to give weenies something to chew on than tell them their odds suck repeatedly I suppose. Who wants to hear we're on a once in 20 year schedule of late? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Yeah, I probably wouldn't have gone above to begin with. The Euro was never showing snow here. But, better to give weenies something to chew on than tell them their odds suck repeatedly I suppose. Who wants to hear we're on a once in 20 year schedule of late? I don't think that was the reason, Jason doesn't hype, that's why I like working with and for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I don't think that was the reason, Jason doesn't hype, that's why I like working with and for him. I didn't say he was hyping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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