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December Obs and Banter


WinterWxLuvr

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So now I'm reading Wes's posts in which he's taking a crap on our long-range hopes that WxUSAF and Bob have built up.

:lol:

I don't think what Wes said is necessarily contradictory to what I said. I mentioned this morning that after a favorable period, the AO/NAO might go positive as the PV comes back toward our side of the pole. If the Pac is not favorable at the same time, we'd warm up.

As several people have said, the period from the 20th-28th or so looks pretty favorable from our viewpoint right now. Beyond that things can change.

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I don't think what Wes said is necessarily contradictory to what I said. I mentioned this morning that after a favorable period, the AO/NAO might go positive as the PV comes back toward our side of the pole. If the Pac is not favorable at the same time, we'd warm up.

As several people have said, the period from the 20th-28th or so looks pretty favorable from our viewpoint right now. Beyond that things can change.

Hehe. I think my excitement of "something finally f'n good" got translated into winter locks in starting d9. Prob my fault for being so excited.

I'm just looking at it as the first real window of opportunity and nothing more. I'm probably expecting it to last a bit longer than I should but I honestly believe that IF (huge if as always) the pac sets up like that it will last a bit. Could the ao/nao relax during the timeframe? Yep, they sure can but that still doesn't wipe out possibilities right?

Get a favorable ridge in place in the west and you don't even need blocking to get vort to pass to the south. And we are moving towards low 40's for normal highs in that time period. You don't need a massive cold air source either. Any type of ne-nw surface flow is can be enough by the end of Dec. Especially if we get a good cold shot first and have some snow on the ground to our north and west.

I'm cautiously optimistic about having some normal or a bit below normal temps during a 10 day period of time. I'm basically hedging that the pac doesn't go right back to a big -pna and flow turning zonal again right after the anticipated amplified pattern. I could be totally wrong but it's what I'm thinking and what I'll be watching for. I'll even bet Wes hopes I'm right. LOLOL

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