Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 There's a weird surface evolution on the gfs that doesn't really line up with the upper levels too. I'm not really smart enough to know that it's incorrect at the surface based on 500 but it doesn't compute in my mind. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 What isn't lining up in your eyes? It seems ok to me (at least from a physics POV). The coastal is forming in the region of PVA from the vort max and along the natural baroclinicity boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 What isn't lining up in your eyes? It seems ok to me (at least from a physics POV). The coastal is forming in the region of PVA from the vort max and along the natural baroclinicity boundary. I ran the loops side by side for a bit and it made much more sense. I'm jamming runs together in my mind. On 6z the vort stays open longer so it's not as amped or sharp so the slp is much more broad early on. Then it naturally consolidates off the coast. After running the loops I realized that the track is a bit N too. Don't need that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 12, 2012 Author Share Posted December 12, 2012 Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't the last "good" run of the GFS yesterdays 12z, and it was the last one to not have a primary that ran west of the Apps before transfering? Seems the runner/transfer scenario makes the whole thing weaker and warmer for our area. Again, correct where needed, as I have only looked briefly, as in a quick peek here and there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 "Our storm" is going to become "cutter 2" before this whole thing is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 "Our storm" is going to become "cutter 2" before this whole thing is done. Is that your butt feeling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't the last "good" run of the GFS yesterdays 12z, and it was the last one to not have a primary that ran west of the Apps before transfering? Seems the runner/transfer scenario makes the whole thing weaker and warmer for our area. Again, correct where needed, as I have only looked briefly, as in a quick peek here and there. Yesterday's 12z went up into the Lakes and transferred. The subsequent low bombed in the 50/50 location and pulled cold air down, while it and the Greenland block kept the storm from running/cutting, keeping it south of us. The cutter didn't bomb on the 18z, but there was a vort that formed just north of the Lakes - that vort squashed the storm and kept it way south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Is that your butt feeling? Squeaky bum time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I'm really liking all guidance with the general evolution of the pna/ao/nao. Everything is pointing towards a relaxation of the pna and possibly going positive sometime after xmas. At the same time the AO is dropping and there is a west based -NAO. Yea, I know that you can't just look at teleconnections and expect sensible weather to cooperate because there are plenty of other factors involved but you have to like the trends. The pna is hurting us bad and that appears to be changing. And were not losing the -ao/nao it appears. I would have to think our chances for winter weather greatly improve as we close out the year and possibly into the new year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Doesn't, it was indeed a typo. poor JI's family lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 12, 2012 Author Share Posted December 12, 2012 Yesterday's 12z went up into the Lakes and transferred. The subsequent low bombed in the 50/50 location and pulled cold air down, while it and the Greenland block kept the storm from running/cutting, keeping it south of us. The cutter didn't bomb on the 18z, but there was a vort that formed just north of the Lakes - that vort squashed the storm and kept it way south. Yes, I know the first storm did, but wasn't "our" storm one consolidated low that traveled due east across the south before turning up the coast? I don't remember it ever being a two low system (on the 12z run). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I'm really liking all guidance with the general evolution of the pna/ao/nao. Everything is pointing towards a relaxation of the pna and possibly going positive sometime after xmas. At the same time the AO is dropping and there is a west based -NAO. Yea, I know that you can't just look at teleconnections and expect sensible weather to cooperate because there are plenty of other factors involved but you have to like the trends. The pna is hurting us bad and that appears to be changing. And were not losing the -ao/nao it appears. I would have to think our chances for winter weather greatly improve as we close out the year and possibly into the new year. I think the Pac is evolving in a way that favors us with the EPO regime changing and hence the PNA as well down the road. I think we might lose the -AO/-NAO combination for a time after Xmas, however, as it looks like the PV might wobble back towards our side of the pole. The GFS Op runs have been doing that too fast in all likelihood, but you can see it happening on the ensembles and Euro as well a bit near and post Day 10. That's a very good thing in the long range, and it might not even be that bad as long as the Pac is better at the same time the AO and/or NAO are positive. I guess what I'm saying is that we might briefly warm up (and not even that warm, but slightly above normal?) as the PV moves back toward us if the Pac is also still evolving at the same time. But, better Pac and PV on our continent bodes very well moving toward New Year's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Yes, I know the first storm did, but wasn't "our" storm one consolidated low that traveled due east across the south before turning up the coast? I don't remember it ever being a two low system (on the 12z run). Gotcha. It sure looked that way on the 12z. I suppose others with more know-how could see it differently, but it looked to me like it remained one system as it got to the coast. Perhaps some energy transfer somewhere in there that the uneducated eye can't catch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I'm gonna say 12z GFS snows on MSP this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I think the Pac is evolving in a way that favors us with the EPO regime changing and hence the PNA as well down the road. I think we might lose the -AO/-NAO combination for a time after Xmas, however, as it looks like the PV might wobble back towards our side of the pole. The GFS Op runs have been doing that too fast in all likelihood, but you can see it happening on the ensembles and Euro as well a bit near and post Day 10. That's a very good thing in the long range, and it might not even be that bad as long as the Pac is better at the same time the AO and/or NAO are positive. I guess what I'm saying is that we might briefly warm up (and not even that warm, but slightly above normal?) as the PV moves back toward us if the Pac is also still evolving at the same time. But, better Pac and PV on our continent bodes very well moving toward New Year's. Well said. We can get plenty of cold here with a good pac and neutral or slightly positive ao/nao. It all comes down to circulation. Depending on the placement of higher heights around AK, a western ridge can deliver cold air from western canada to the east coast without blocking. But the blocking helps stabilize the pattern. Who knows what's going to happen as we close out the year. Much is up in the air. I'm feeling good about at or below normal temps the last 5 days of the month and if I bust...who cares? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 There is something to be said about models showing a rainstorm from the get go for the area....makes it much easier to digest when it rains....now for some up North...this run of the gfs is a real nut shot.....lol...the gfs stole their snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Are we forgetting the storm might create its own cold air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Are we forgetting the storm might create its own cold air? millzpirate is working on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 There is something to be said about models showing a rainstorm from the get go for the area....makes it much easier to digest when it rains....now for some up North...this run of the gfs is a real nut shot.....lol...the gfs stole their snow. As long as everyone gets screwed, I'm OK with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 DT wins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 12, 2012 Author Share Posted December 12, 2012 Are we forgetting the storm might create its own cold air? That goes without saying. It's our ace in the hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 12, 2012 Author Share Posted December 12, 2012 DT wins Not yet he hasn't. You can post that next week if need be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 DT wins QBO will save us!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 There is something to be said about models showing a rainstorm from the get go for the area....makes it much easier to digest when it rains....now for some up North...this run of the gfs is a real nut shot.....lol...the gfs stole their snow. Sometimes the best ones are being out of it for days only for a flip and surprise snow right at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 millzpirate is working on that. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 97 days until spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 A familiar shape emerges... 360hr snow coverage.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 If we get a white christmas after 2 horrifying winters I don't even need to open a single present to be more than content. I'm stoked too because my business is really slow this time of year so I get to spend as much time model hugging...I mean watching as I want before things go crazy in early January. I'm cautiously optimistic beyond day 9 because of the range but it's quite believable because this is one of the more common ways that a -pna flips. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 yay snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 yay snow i think you mean rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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