MidlothianWX Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 DT is just getting worse. Maybe he's been the same but I think he's getting worse. His big fat ego drives him to make specific forecasts way too far out. I would think any experienced met has enough sense to openly say there is uncertainty in every forecast past a 4-5 days and it's totally acceptable to include uncertainty. But not for DT for some reason. It's like he thinks he's smarter than the models and can forecast better or something. He's been eating his lr forecasts more often than Albert Haynesworth eating bacon cheeseburgers lately. I feel slightly conflicted about him, although my biases are apparent due to my location (there aren't really any solid mets posting from around here). His videos are actually fairly thorough and do a great job of explaining to the layman such as myself. Unfortunately, he rides this "battle of the models" scenario way too hard and hurls around insults with every chance he gets. Not really sure what explains the dichotomy IRT written vs. spoken word for him. He's like a god in the wx-world around RIC though and it will take a massive disaster to destroy his reputation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 It will be nice to see if we can get precip anymore at least. Garrett Bastardi is not buying this solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 DT is often among the better at pattern recognition type stuff. But he is not as good at forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 it sucks that God made freezing 32. He should of made it 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 it sucks that God made freezing 32. He should of made it 42 but then our average high in winter would be 51. #nowaytowin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 this guy .. has got video updates: https://twitter.com/...703512773332993 Does the little Bustardi have a Met degree?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Does the little Bustardi have a Met degree?. I think he is 9 or something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I think he is 9 or something He is for sure on steroids already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 He is for sure on steroids already. He is Ji's idol already which has to be worth something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 He is Ji's idol already which has to be worth something I heard he is starting daily videos on Ji's facebook page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 At least it looks to be chilly on Xmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 No expectations here other than trying to enjoy tracking the potential no matter how remote the chances may be. 6z gfs is rain but is colder than 0z was. I assume euro is rain but the track seems positive...bl is the problem of course but 850s are close by at least. On to the next set of model runs for me....my blinders are firmly in place in case Wes decides to make fun of me.....just kidding Wes...trying to have some fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Look at the upper levels before making any calls thank you for speaking up! I wish more knowledgeable people would tell those who don't know **** to shut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Show me where my posts are weenieish. If you show me examples I will acknowledge and reduce posting significantly. The GFS is a mess folks, surface depictions all over the place, some blob of convection in south GA and a slp heading for the Ohio valley and a met reply: Look at the upper levels before making any calls lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 No expectations here other than trying to enjoy tracking the potential no matter how remote the chances may be. 6z gfs is rain but is colder than 0z was. I assume euro is rain but the track seems positive...bl is the problem of course but 850s are close by at least. On to the next set of model runs for me....my blinders are firmly in place in case Wes decides to make fun of me.....just kidding Wes...trying to have some fun We will see snow before sometime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 He never gives up: @BigJoeBastardi: Major noreaster next week could cause problems in Sandy Ravaged beaches as well as major interior snow, rain turning to snow coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 thank you for speaking up! I wish more knowledgeable people would tell those who don't know **** to shut it. I wish you'd just shut up in general and I think I speak for a lot of folks on here, and your minion while you're at it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Let's get it together folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 30 and cloudy here this am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 With the near midnight frontal passage late Monday, we actually ended up a +11 on the day yesterday at DCA. Dec now +7.9 at DCA, +8.2 at BWI, and +8.5 at IAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I wish you'd just shut up in general and I think I speak for a lot of folks on here, and your minion while you're at it Let's compare: Number of times you've been five-posted and suspended, vs. number of times Mapgirl has been five-posted and suspended. Related, how are your friends down in the Southeast forum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 He never gives up: @BigJoeBastardi: Major noreaster next week could cause problems in Sandy Ravaged beaches as well as major interior snow, rain turning to snow coast In fairness, we will probably all get pulled back into this in subsequent euro and gfs runs....only to get dreams shattered again. What a tough hobby this is.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 We certainly haven't seen the final solution for next weeks storm regardless if it is rain or snow....I'm gonna ride the lets see what the next set of model runs bring us instead of jumping on the "it's too hard" train. If this winter is just one big steaming pile then I'm gonna have a little fun with it vs. always stating the obvious.....but that's just me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 We certainly haven't seen the final solution for next weeks storm regardless if it is rain or snow....I'm gonna ride the lets see what the next set of model runs bring us instead of jumping on the "it's too hard" train. If this winter is just one big steaming pile then I'm gonna have a little fun with it vs. always stating the obvious.....but that's just me eventually you (general you) have to realize that its only the weather and its gonna do what it wants. getting emotional over it, letting it ruin your life, etc is just silly. embrace a torch in january if it happens, laugh at 35 and rain and just be thankful you get to wake up every day. ... or wish for snow and a baby at the same time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 We certainly haven't seen the final solution for next weeks storm regardless if it is rain or snow....I'm gonna ride the lets see what the next set of model runs bring us instead of jumping on the "it's too hard" train. If this winter is just one big steaming pile then I'm gonna have a little fun with it vs. always stating the obvious.....but that's just me Yeah, at least it's something to follow for all of us. Fingers crossed that we all cash in. I don't think we had much even to wish for last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Since 09-10 it's been more like this: 09-10 was brilliant because for one magical winter the equation became: 1+1 = 2 It usually takes "ununsual" circumstances to get substantial snow around here, but those circumstances aren't THAT unusual, because it does snow here EVERY winter. Even terrible winters like last year. This year is certainly not perfect in the global pattern sense, but we have enough working for us that I feel confident that we'll be shoveling several times. Even if this storm is a rainer, the pattern has potential for at least a week afterwards if the GFS ensembles are to be believed. That's hella better then where we were just a couple days ago, when everyone (myself included) was punting any chances through Christmas at least if not New Year's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Yeah, at least it's something to follow for all of us. Fingers crossed that we all cash in. I don't think we had much even to wish for last year. You're certainly in a much better position than we are for next week's storm, Jamie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 09-10 was brilliant because for one magical winter the equation became: 1+1 = 2 It usually takes "ununsual" circumstances to get substantial snow around here, but those circumstances aren't THAT unusual, because it does snow here EVERY winter. Even terrible winters like last year. This year is certainly not perfect in the global pattern sense, but we have enough working for us that I feel confident that we'll be shoveling several times. Even if this storm is a rainer, the pattern has potential for at least a week afterwards if the GFS ensembles are to be believed. That's hella better then where we were just a couple days ago, when everyone (myself included) was punting any chances through Christmas at least if not New Year's. I'm feeling fine this year. Nothing is going to just "take over" and steal winter. At least I personally don't think it will go down that way. I enjoy the hunt as much as the snow so opportunities make it fun even if the end result isn't what we hoped for. I think that's what was so ugly about last year. There wasn't even much to hunt for weeks on end. Quite unusual just like 09-10 but the other way. I really like seeing a good bit of guidance pointing towards at or below normal temps in a week and it looks to hold that way. No better time of year to be at or below than late dec because warm xmas weeks are the worst. The old cliche that "we need the cold first and then lets see what happens" can't really be said enough in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 The old cliche that "we need the cold first and then lets see what happens" can't really be said enough in these parts. True dat. That's what screwed up the GFS runs last night. The two storms (we really need to name these or something so I can stop typing "the cutter" and "the storm" or "our storm" or "the 18-19th storm"...), "the cutter" and "our storm" are too close together. There's absolutely no time for "the cutter" to pull in any cold air behind it. There's barely 24 hours of seperation, and maybe not even that much. "Our storm" got a lot faster. 6z GFS has it raining by 0z Tuesday. That's bad news. We want "the cutter" to be stronger and "our storm" to be slower. A couple of the GFS ensemble members portray this scenario, and hence give us a snowier solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 What an unsurprising turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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