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December Obs and Banter


WinterWxLuvr

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This place gets feisty when there is virtual snow inside of d10 on a handful of runs after a 22+ month snow drought and epic Dec torch.

Just wait until models hold serve and improve inside of d5...and then lose it altogether. Some posts will be 3rd degree misdemeanors.

When the GFS goes "Lucy" on us at 72 hours, people are going to rip each others' throats out.

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This place gets feisty when there is virtual snow inside of d10 on a handful of runs after a 22+ month snow drought and epic Dec torch.

Just wait until models hold serve and improve inside of d5...and then lose it altogether. Some posts will be 3rd degree misdemeanors.

Lol, Bob you are always chill.

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This place gets feisty when there is virtual snow inside of d10 on a handful of runs after a 22+ month snow drought and epic Dec torch.

Just wait until models hold serve and improve inside of d5...and then lose it altogether. Some posts will be 3rd degree misdemeanors.

I refuse to be suckered in.

But you're right. If we get hosed only to watch places 200 miles south get smoked, it might get ugly. I'm hoping DT reverse jinxed us.

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Yea cause you should always take a model verbatim when referring to 192 hours out......

look, I've never been shy about being a weenie but getting excited over a 192 hr rainstorm is beyond weenie

in case some have forgotten, we have seen many of these modeled rainstorms hoping they would be snow in the prior 2 winters and they haven't worked out

but JI and apparently you too missed the point of my original post regarding the physics

the GFS had a rainstorm of decent intensity modeled based upon progged atmospheric conditions.....you can't expect that if the atmosphere was cold enough to support snow that it would be modeling the same intensity and track; it is much more likely to be weaker for our area or even pushed to our south

when you consider both of those points, mentioning that verbatim the model shows a rainstorm is nothing more than the injection of reality into the world of wx models, which is simply asking that if we're going to fantasize over a projected fantasy like the GFS at 192 hrs, let's at least acknowledge that the GFS storm is not the fantasy we all crave

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look, I've never been shy about being a weenie but getting excited over a 192 hr rainstorm is beyond weenie

in case some have forgotten, we have seen many of these modeled rainstorms hoping they would be snow in the prior 2 winters and they haven't worked out

but JI and apparently you too missed the point of my original post regarding the physics

the GFS had a rainstorm of decent intensity modeled based upon progged atmospheric conditions.....you can't expect that if the atmosphere was cold enough to support snow that it would be modeling the same intensity and track; it is much more likely to be weaker for our area or even pushed to our south

when you consider both of those points, mentioning that verbatim the model shows a rainstorm is nothing more than the injection of reality into the world of wx models, which is simply asking that if we're going to fantasize over a projected fantasy like the GFS at 192 hrs, let's at least acknowledge that the GFS storm is not the fantasy we all crave

It's pretty hard to get excited about anything over about 4 days. Even the reliable Euro has struggled at longer ranges so far.

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It's pretty hard to get excited about anything over about 4 days. Even the reliable Euro has struggled at longer ranges so far.

can't agree more

in fact, on the one hand it seems like the computers are getting worse, but then I think back to 09/10 when they did great

in the end, all the tweaking and work they do on them and the bottom line is, in certain patterns they are decent and in others they suck and this "winter", at least so far, they have been all over the place

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can't agree more

in fact, on the one hand it seems like the computers are getting worse, but then I think back to 09/10 when they did great

in the end, all the tweaking and work they do on them and the bottom line is, in certain patterns they are decent and in others they suck and this "winter", at least so far, they have been all over the place

Remember the old adage.. weather is unpredictable, and always will be.

Keep weenie hope and will alive

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can't agree more

in fact, on the one hand it seems like the computers are getting worse, but then I think back to 09/10 when they did great

in the end, all the tweaking and work they do on them and the bottom line is, in certain patterns they are decent and in others they suck and this "winter", at least so far, they have been all over the place

I had always read that during pattern changes that they can struggle. Don't know if that's true or not, but one positive as I see it is that for the past 5 days or do they seem to be moving toward a colder pattern. Maybe with the blocking we get lucky.

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Lol, Bob you are always chill.

Lol- my friends tagged me with my nickname 2 decades ago and it's more alive and kicking than ever. The funny part is it has nothing to do with weather but it's so fitting as a screen name on so many levels. I don't mind having a God given gift of patience and water under the bridge mentality. I'll prob live longer because of it.

I just want to see flakes falling again. If they stick its a bonus. Is that too much to ask? It's not like we live in Jacksonville or something. Or do we?

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Lol- my friends tagged me with my nickname 2 decades ago and it's more alive and kicking than ever. The funny part is it has nothing to do with weather but it's so fitting as a screen name on so many levels. I don't mind having a God given gift of patience and water under the bridge mentality. I'll prob live longer because of it.

I just want to see flakes falling again. If they stick its a bonus. Is that too much to ask? It's not like we live in Jacksonville or something. Or do we?

This thing could flip on a dime any minute and we could find ourselves hoping for mild temps and a break from winter. It's a long time until spring and it looks like it might get fun soon.

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I had always read that during pattern changes that they can struggle. Don't know if that's true or not, but one positive as I see it is that for the past 5 days or do they seem to be moving toward a colder pattern. Maybe with the blocking we get lucky.

Imo its comes down to dominant and stable features. They aren't always there. When they are it's always 10 days away. When they aren't models are criticized beyond repair. Identify and accept when they are there and vice versa and model performance looks pretty darn reasonable and good.

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