mappy Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 OEM, is that you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 "However, today’s European model now tracks the low off the Southeast coast, more like how last night’s GFS model runs took the low to our south and gave us a cooler look for the storm." - taken from Wes' article today. Oh my, is that a reference? Note: this post is directed at mapgirl, please excuse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 it was suggested i put you on ignore... sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 it was suggested i put you on ignore... sorry You shall receive the same treatment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 "However, today’s European model now tracks the low off the Southeast coast, more like how last night’s GFS model runs took the low to our south and gave us a cooler look for the storm." - taken from Wes' article today. Oh my, is that a reference? What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 What? It was directed toward mapgirl, please excuse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 It's 192 hours Mitch. Lol. Weenie of the year stuff right there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I knew as soon as DT said this wound be a Midwest storm..it would shift south and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I'm skeptical of what any model is saying right now....I just want it to feel like Christmas dangit!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I knew as soon as DT said this wound be a Midwest storm..it would shift south and east Now he doesn't believe the Euro...also said bye bye cold if it is correct. His FB page has people all confused now..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 He puts too much faith in the euro too far out and then scrambles like rg3 when the euro fails him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Storm signal is solid in the day 7-8 range. It could track north or south and give us rain, snow, both, or nothing. That's my high probability forecast and I'm sticking to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Jma destroys us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I've got a preliminary name for this potential storm: "2nd North American Blizzard of December 18-19" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Jma destroys us Mayan calendar was right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Mayan calendar was right? Or DT forecast is wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 DT is just getting worse. Maybe he's been the same but I think he's getting worse. His big fat ego drives him to make specific forecasts way too far out. I would think any experienced met has enough sense to openly say there is uncertainty in every forecast past a 4-5 days and it's totally acceptable to include uncertainty. But not for DT for some reason. It's like he thinks he's smarter than the models and can forecast better or something. He's been eating his lr forecasts more often than Albert Haynesworth eating bacon cheeseburgers lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I've got a preliminary name for this potential storm: "2nd North American Blizzard of December 18-19" That's a good one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 lol. Might as well reference any model that shows a snow storm. What's the JMA say? Wes is one of, if not the most, reasoned mets here. He is not going to fawn all over one storm that is so far away. Why hype it when so many things still need to happen and it being so far away. I'm sure we'll know soon enough. Jma destroys us Told ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 I'm skeptical of what any model is saying right now....I just want it to feel like Christmas dangit!! How about Christmas of 2010? Kinda gives you that warm, tingly feeling doesn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Im locked in........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Im locked in........ No really...im locked in at my office....hep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 DT is just getting worse. Maybe he's been the same but I think he's getting worse. His big fat ego drives him to make specific forecasts way too far out. I would think any experienced met has enough sense to openly say there is uncertainty in every forecast past a 4-5 days and it's totally acceptable to include uncertainty. But not for DT for some reason. It's like he thinks he's smarter than the models and can forecast better or something. He's been eating his lr forecasts more often than Albert Haynesworth eating bacon cheeseburgers lately. He and one or two others are brilliant discussers of the synoptics necessary for snow in the mid atlantic but they are not good forecasters in general and are afflicted with switcharooitis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 DT is just getting worse. Maybe he's been the same but I think he's getting worse. His big fat ego drives him to make specific forecasts way too far out. I would think any experienced met has enough sense to openly say there is uncertainty in every forecast past a 4-5 days and it's totally acceptable to include uncertainty. But not for DT for some reason. It's like he thinks he's smarter than the models and can forecast better or something. He's been eating his lr forecasts more often than Albert Haynesworth eating bacon cheeseburgers lately. He went warm for Dec in his LR, not sure how that is a fail......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Lol. Weenie of the year stuff right there many getting excited over a 192 hr GFS rainstorm and I'm the weenie? right, that's why you win so often I guess lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 many getting excited over a 192 hr GFS rainstorm and I'm the weenie? right, that's why you win so often I guess lol Yea cause you should always take a model verbatim when referring to 192 hours out...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 He went warm for Dec in his LR, not sure how that is a fail......... He's right for the wrong reasons though. Look at his analogs for Dec: NH circulation is far different so far in Dec. Yea, it's warm but the whys are not the same as what he said. And honestly, I don't even read his stuff anymore. I had to actually go in and read his winter forecast today. My point isn't about the 3 month forecast though. Everybody gets those wrong more often than right when enso isn't a factor. Plenty of luck mixed in with the skill. It's the euro hugging and saying the GFS has it all wrong all the time. This makes him wrong 50% of the time. It's just a lot louder when he's right so it makes it seem more true than it actually is. He's knows his stuff. No arguing that at all. His delivery and arrogance take it all away IMO. LIke Ian said earlier. Grading lr stuff is very mushy. I consider any forecast outside of 10 days lr too. Not just the full seasonal stuff. DT thinks he's a heck of a lot better than he actually is. And you can't take credit for being right when you are right for completely different reasons than what was outlined with the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 18z conjures up some old memories. Anus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I'm skeptical of what any model is saying right now....I just want it to feel like Christmas dangit!! You ran your A/C yesterday, didn't you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 18z conjures up some old memories. Anus. Sigh that wont happen twice will it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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