WinterWxLuvr Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 I doubt anyone thinks you suggested it shouldn't be discussed. I'll just reiterate that your input would be good for the discussion. Not sure how this will come across, but I also think that as a moderator you took a lot of grief over the years that may have had an impact on how much and what you post. And I am only making an observation that may be completely wrong, but from a mostly reader's pov, you seem a bit more guarded recently. If you are, and if it's a by-product of some of the petty arguing that is inherent in this type of forum, I would understand. Being a mod here I would bet is a lot like being an umpire at game for a tee ball game where adults care more about the outcome than the kids. You have taken your share of grief over the years, but it would be a loss to not have your input as a result. But as I said, I could be more wrong than the worst long-range forecast. And like you said, there hasn't been much in the near-term lately to discuss. I support this post 100%. Ian is a valuable member of our forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I am lost...has there been any suggestion that Ian isn't one of the top posters/mets/etc on this forum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Thanks for the comments. I do perhaps post less on certain things than I used to, but not really because of anything in particular. I do think that overall people don't like to hear "negativity" when it comes to snow hopes so I might save some of those comments here and there. But, really, it's more that I don't have a ton to offer in that range other than climo and gut feelings based on pattern recognition and pattern progression... granted, that might be valuable in some cases as watching for years is certainly a help. It's mostly that I don't study these indices etc nearly as much as most of those who spend a lot of time in the discussion. I also never look at something like the CFS unless it's posted here. Part of that is truly I believe my time can be better used elsewhere... not to belittle anyone who does it as some of them are finding stuff that works. It's just not my thing. I have so many side projects it's hard to stay focused. Once things are real and in a range I believe in, you'll surely see me chime in. To end on a cocky note: I can either hold my own or outforecast pretty much anyone in the region in the shorter range.. Generally, my gut agrees we'll start running into more potential heading into Jan and possibly before. But, I don't have much to quantify that off of right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I totally get where your coming from Ian. Post the stuff you like and enjoy to work on. It's part of the collective effort that makes subforum really good. I totally dig your input inside of 7 days during threats and you kick butt with short range stuff. I only post stuff that I'm really interested in and spend time researching. I wouldn't expect anyone to do anything different regardless of their tag. Looking forward to your first inside of a week analysis on our first real threat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I totally get where your coming from Ian. Post the stuff you like and enjoy to work on. It's part of the collective effort that makes subforum really good. I totally dig your input inside of 7 days during threats and you kick butt with short range stuff. I only post stuff that I'm really interested in and spend time researching. I wouldn't expect anyone to do anything different regardless of their tag. Looking forward to your first inside of a week analysis on our first real threat! Same to you. I read most of the stuff even if I don't jump in. You've definitely done some fine research as have others. I get that as well, it's basically the same thing I do with different subjects, just applied in other ways most of the time. My problems with the longer range are really not associated with the group who chats it up the most here. It's more that I think it's mushy when it comes to "grading" and people get held less accountable for being wrong.. plus there is seemingly always "light at the end of the tunnel" (perhaps as there should be going deeper into winter). I also think biases (wanting to verify a forecast for months) tend to stand out quite a bit.. tho I'm sure the same can be said about shorter range. Since I can't think of anything else but a poor cliche: it is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Damn you, got it before delete. I'm really not trying to draw a wedge here... I know most here understand the weaknesses in that range. I've also not said it shouldn't be discussed even though that's how the responses make it sound. I just get the sense some buy into it all more than they should for sanity sake. But, then again, none of us posting here are truly sane. Speak for yourself, my mother had me tested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 Speak for yourself, my mother had me tested. BBT is a great show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Today appears a good enough example of how short range is still problematic. Guess we can't count it till the front passes but it's pretty darn dry compared to forecast. No one was calling for heavy rains or big totals but we've barely seen a drop anywhere east of the mtns. I guess it's all about to change(?) but we've been hard to get precip if you toss the extreme outlier... I know leesburg wont let me do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 This weather has been awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Well if the GFS is to believed the next 3 weeks will be rocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Boy sign me up for a 1-3" snow around Christmas...not saying that will happen just saying how if that happened it would pretty much make December a great month...yup thats all it would take for me. 40 and .01 in the bucket Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Calmly waiting for winter. Gas bill will be low this month for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I am lost...has there been any suggestion that Ian isn't one of the top posters/mets/etc on this forum? he is pretty bad, man. gets all emotional and stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Boy sign me up for a 1-3" snow around Christmas...not saying that will happen just saying how if that happened it would pretty much make December a great month...yup thats all it would take for me. 40 and .01 in the bucket I think any of us would take a near-Christmas snow and happily get into January. Wife and I got our Christmas tree last night, but it felt a little wrong getting one when it was about 60* out. But at least we weren't freezing our arses off during the process. I count that as a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 DCA at +7.6 for the month so far? Torchy torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 DCA at +7.6 for the month so far? Torchy torch 8.1 at BWI. Only 1 day below normal. JB's going to need the PV to park itself over DC to get his -2 for the month. The next several days are closer to normal, but are probably still +1-3 type days. Certainly the potential exists for a string of BN days if this stormy and/or cold pattern appears in the days before Christmas, but even then it doesn't look frigidly cold, just slightly below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I think any of us would take a near-Christmas snow and happily get into January. Wife and I got our Christmas tree last night, but it felt a little wrong getting one when it was about 60* out. But at least we weren't freezing our arses off during the process. I count that as a win. Honestly, I really want it to be seasonable around Christmas...snow is a bonus. I have lived here most of my life and have a pretty good handle on what to expect in winter so really...a nice crisp 40-45 degree day with some wind blowing would be just fine for me...some flakes in the air and oh boy....daddy might get lucky that night 41 degrees out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Where I spend Christmas (Harford County), we've had some some sort of snow for each of the last 3 years. Lots of snow on the ground with light rain and temps in the upper 30s in 2009, windy with snow showers in 2010 (pre-Boxing Day fiasco), and flurries last year. Not too shabby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Honestly, I really want it to be seasonable around Christmas...snow is a bonus. I have lived here most of my life and have a pretty good handle on what to expect in winter so really...a nice crisp 40-45 degree day with some wind blowing would be just fine for me...some flakes in the air and oh boy....daddy might get lucky that night 41 degrees out I grew up in South Jersey (close to the Delaware River) and I recall very, very few Christmases with white on the ground or in the air. White Christmases are an anomaly for most of the US, but it's still nice to hope for one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Sure looks like things are about to get interesting for at least a week or two after 12/20. I like our chances of seeing at least a couple minor events if not something more. Keeping fingers crossed we can land a couple big ones in January this year with the prolonged -AO and an active storm train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I grew up in South Jersey (close to the Delaware River) and I recall very, very few Christmases with white on the ground or in the air. White Christmases are an anomaly for most of the US, but it's still nice to hope for one. Not all of the U.S. I grew up in Jackson, Wy and I can never remember a Christmas that wasn't white Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Not all of the U.S. I grew up in Jackson, Wy and I can never remember a Christmas that wasn't white Sure...which is why I said "most." How much for Cody? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Same to you. I read most of the stuff even if I don't jump in. You've definitely done some fine research as have others. I get that as well, it's basically the same thing I do with different subjects, just applied in other ways most of the time. My problems with the longer range are really not associated with the group who chats it up the most here. It's more that I think it's mushy when it comes to "grading" and people get held less accountable for being wrong.. plus there is seemingly always "light at the end of the tunnel" (perhaps as there should be going deeper into winter). I also think biases (wanting to verify a forecast for months) tend to stand out quite a bit.. tho I'm sure the same can be said about shorter range. Since I can't think of anything else but a poor cliche: it is what it is. Winter forecasts without question bust exponentially more often than they are right. Even when they are right many times they are right for a different or wrong reason than outlined in the write-up. With that being said, some folks are really good at seeing and explaining potential dominant features in the LR. That's my personal fave with discussions. Our winter is short as heck. 12 weeks for the most part. Dominant long wave features determine our winters moreso than even climo. Especially lately. The whole feast or famine thing. That's why I think LR discussions are good solid fun and important when trying to make sense of what to expect. Not talking about Dec +1 Jan -2 stuff. Discussing the features affecting nh circulation and how they can change is my focus and our subforum is really good at it. Especially when coastal, hm, and orh step in. The prob of course is there are so many exceptions. Just like the snow cover thing and -ao. Yea, we nailed the snow cover and we got the -ao forecast right but did it = snow and cold? Nope. Not yet at least. I think LR forecasting grades are simply "he's right more often than he's wrong so he gets a passing grade". That's really it. I totally agree with mushy grading and ego's ruling the roost. The reality is that if a supercomputer with the most high tech atmospheric modeling software can't even get close to nailing seasonals on a consistent basis then how on earth could any human be "consistent"? I'm not sure most people know this but I didn't even start looking at weather models until 2005. I never really thought I could get a handle on it. I started off with terrible posts and I sucked at analysis in 06-08. It started clicking in 09 though (but I still sucked). It took a long time and a big commitment to learn. I wanted to do it because it was fun. I totally dig piecing together lr forecasting of dominant features. My background is in risk underwriting for the financial industry. It's how my brain works. Review large amounts of data and variables to come up with the most likely outcome down the road. It's full of busts too but if you're right more often than wrong you don't lose your shorts and make a good living. Perfect parallel to lr model watching. Model watching is much more fun but it doesn't pay the bills. LOL The lr stuff is tedious and time consuming. If you don't like doing it then absolutely don't do it. The rewards are much more meager than being a good short range guy anyway. The short range guy has much more pressure and has to be MUCH more accurate. I don't really post much short range stuff because I suck at it. I usually end up weenieing out because of mby bias. I love when you and Wes start honking in the short range (and some others as well). Maybe next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 What day do the whiteout conditions begin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Is there any chance of wintry precip in the next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Is there any chance of wintry precip in the next week? GFS says perhaps on your anniversary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 GFS says perhaps on your anniversary. cool. i just figured this child is waiting until it snows before wanting to make its way in to the world, doesn't seem to be in much of a hurry right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Wow - now that was some serious weather porn on the GFS run just now. Okay, back to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 cool. i just figured this child is waiting until it snows before wanting to make its way in to the world, doesn't seem to be in much of a hurry right now. I was wondering how you were doing! Looks like we *may* be getting a pattern change just in time for your little one to make his/her big entrance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I was wondering how you were doing! Looks like we *may* be getting a pattern change just in time for your little one to make his/her big entrance! I'm getting a little impatient, but technically still have four days to go until I'm considered "late" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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