WinterWxLuvr Posted December 10, 2012 Author Share Posted December 10, 2012 Had a brief heavy rain here a few minutes ago. Now stopped, looks like more on the way. Cheer up folks. It's going to turn. At least we're starting to see something other than sunny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Yeah, I saw HM just posted that he might "go all JB on us for mid-winter". I think with the persistent -AO/-NAO that we'll get some good snows and cold weather at some point, but obviously looks like not in December. Still lots of ball game left for us. My personal January schedule is going to be quite light before I start my new position in February, so I'd love a snowy January to enjoy with my kids! I all honesty our ballgame usually doesnt start until January anyways. If the blocking is legit we will see snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 With the PV retreating to Siberia, we're also getting a little thin on cold air for this side of the pole. Your point about storms following cutters is well made, Bob. Euro has shown this for the ~18-20th timeframe and right now has an inland runner, but has trended it closer to the coast. Still, even the "cold" airmass on the backside is pretty weak. I noticed the retreat myself. Kinda figures too. Get a period of -ao/nao that is washed out by the pac and then hl pattern reshuffles before we can get things in order. It's far from the end of the world but I really do learn a lot each year on how things can go wrong even when certain important things look right. But we aren't alone. The entire ec is bummin right now. Even the intermountain west has been really really dry (except for far N areas of mt and wy) but that is finally changing for them. A 4 corners low is on deck this week. That's something "new" I guess but doesn't mean much here. At least there is finally some snow in the n plains. That will help with continental airmasses behind fronts Wes, I know the odds are stacked big time against. I was only pointing out the only way I see us getting any snow for the foreseeable future. It "can" happen and there appears to be much more energy moving in the flow then there has been for quite a while. Maybe we get lucky? Too bad it would melt within 72 hours. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 I'm all giddy from the plethora of good news coming out right now. Shaping up to be a great winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Where's the sun? lol. I feel like they keep forecasting it and it never shows. The fog in the morning and clouds have been fighting strong lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Dec Mid range discussion - Not as depressed anymore As oft quoted in these forums, what a difference a day makes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Dec Mid range discussion - Not as depressed anymore As oft quoted in these forums, what a difference a day makes Just wait till tomorrow. Ahh d10+ modeling! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 That and the euro ens mean look certainly is the best look we've seen this winter. Looks like I'll have a more interesting article tomorrow than the last several. Don't jinx us, Wes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Just wait till tomorrow. Ahh d10+ modeling! I think this is the real deal (meaning favorable shift in the pac). Models may waffle around but that nasty pac ridge and western trough is on the way out imo. What happens downstream? idk I wouldn't mind a couple -10 dep days to "get in the holiday mood". +10-20 with fog, rain, and drizzle sucks. Just doesn't feel right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 I think this is the real deal (meaning favorable shift in the pac). Models may waffle around but that nasty pac ridge and western trough is on the way out imo. What happens downstream? idk I wouldn't mind a couple -10 dep days to "get in the holiday mood". +10-20 with fog, rain, and drizzle sucks. Just doesn't feel right. Long range stuff is cool.. people can be wrong for weeks then when something finally changes they get back pats. Wake me up when we're within 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Long range stuff is cool.. people can be wrong for weeks then when something finally changes they get back pats. Wake me up when we're within 7 days. in this forum, I think it is less about being right, and more about enjoying the discussion... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 in this forum, I think it is less about being right, and more about enjoying the discussion... I don't know about that. People refer to their forecasts too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Just wait till tomorrow. Ahh d10+ modeling! I will always have this evening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 I don't know about that. People refer to their forecasts too much. I haven't noticed, but maybe I am not paying attention Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 in this forum, I think it is less about being right, and more about enjoying the discussion... I thought the forum existed to speculate and discuss winter weather as a whole? If only talk about <7 days in most patterns in DC winter then threads would never hit page 2 or even discuss winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 I thought the forum existed to speculate and discuss winter weather as a whole? If only talk about <7 days in most patterns in DC winter then threads would never hit page 2 or even discuss winter. I like the pattern discussion...I think most of us understand it is low confidence stuff....Though so far we have done pretty good collectively in punting the 1st half of DEC when many thought there would be a pattern change/storm around now...though much of that is that the models have been pretty good overall.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 I thought the forum existed to speculate and discuss winter weather as a whole? If only talk about <7 days in most patterns in DC winter then threads would never hit page 2 or even discuss winter. I'm not telling you not to discuss it. Granted a few people have more than no clue but even then it's hard to quantify how much is gained by it IMO. It's not a hit against you or zwyts or usedtobe. Still, I've been around long enough to know there is limited value. Perhaps it's just my mindset when it comes to winter these days.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 I like the pattern discussion...I think most of us understand it is low confidence stuff....Though so far we have done pretty good collectively in punting the 1st half of DEC when many thought there would be a pattern change/storm around now...though much of that is that the models have been pretty good overall.. Models have done really well with the longwave features but they've also thrown in plenty of "goodies" that were well analyzed and discussed. Unfortunately the discussions centered around why we shouldn't expect the "goodies" but It's fun no matter what. I try hard to be objective. I've actually gotten much better the last couple of years at being more objective. I think the ma subforum does an excellent job collectively discussing and coming to very reasonable conclusions without out of control weenieism or pessimism. Can't say that about every subforum. I don't mind folks honking torches and iceboxes as long as they can call it both ways. Some cannot and they are always the bottom tier imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 I'm not telling you not to discuss it. Granted a few people have more than no clue but even then it's hard to quantify how much is gained by it IMO. It's not a hit against you or zwyts or usedtobe. Still, I've been around long enough to know there is limited value. Perhaps it's just my mindset when it comes to winter these days.. I enjoy the discussions. It's why I spend so much time here reading. I would post more if I thought anything that I had to say was an original thought, but any dialog that I could add is so fundamental, it's already been said or implied. But the discussion is great and unlike me, youve got a lot to add so I wish you'd jump in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 I'm not telling you not to discuss it. Granted a few people have more than no clue but even then it's hard to quantify how much is gained by it IMO. It's not a hit against you or zwyts or usedtobe. Still, I've been around long enough to know there is limited value. Perhaps it's just my mindset when it comes to winter these days.. It's quite entertaining to me and I'm sure most others that have some sort of knowledge base. That's what makes it worth it. Entertainment factor. And learning about the mechanics of the atmosphere from the armchair. That's pretty fun too. But I know exactly what you're saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 I enjoy the discussions. It's why I spend so much time here reading. I would post more if I thought anything that I had to say was an original thought, but any dialog that I could add is so fundamental, it's already been said or implied. But the discussion is great and unlike me, youve got a lot to add so I wish you'd jump in. I don't really have much to add on the topic. I'm mostly a short range guy.. day 7-10 is pretty much my useful limit without reverting to climo .. tho climo would probably give largely the same story. People have unrealistic expectations about early season around here. Again, it's not really a hit on anyone here.. our forum is very measured and we have some solid long-range guys. I still think standing back, particularly looking at a year like last year so recent in our memory (when most busted pretty badly).. the value is limited. I'd gladly change my tune once I start seeing more continued success. I think those who look at a whole winter generally do better than looking for specific changes weeks in advance etc as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I don't really have much to add on the topic. I'm mostly a short range guy.. day 7-10 is pretty much my useful limit without reverting to climo .. tho climo would probably give largely the same story. People have unrealistic expectations about early season around here. Again, it's not really a hit on anyone here.. our forum is very measured and we have some solid long-range guys. I still think standing back, particularly looking at a year like last year so recent in our memory (when most busted pretty badly).. the value is limited. I'd gladly change my tune once I start seeing more continued success. I think those who look at a whole winter generally do better than looking for specific changes weeks in advance etc as well. It's not as challenging to forecast in the short term, the real challenge in meteorology is continuing to improve the accuracy in the mid to long range, and comparing and contrasting the various schools of thought in that range. We can generally all come to an objective conclusion in the short range, but I understand your point, you don't even want to comment until the period of interest is inside some range of demonstrated skill (5-7 days). Anyway the mid and long range discussions are excellent and informative and what make forecasting both interesting and challenging for me and apparently many others. Wes and some others are actually quite good at spotting favorable macro scale changes that could lead to a period in the mid and long range where snow is more likely or less likely. Unfortunately, for snow lovers, Wes was about 100% right about the mid and long range last year when he said the conditions are awful and continued to be awful. I'm very intrigued to see what he has to contribute to tomorrow's CWG write-up, which he says should be "more interesting" than previous write-ups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 It's not as challenging to forecast in the short term, the real challenge in meteorology is continuing to improve the accuracy in the mid to long range, and comparing and contrasting the various schools of thought in that range. We can generally all come to an objective conclusion in the short range, but I understand your point, you don't even want to comment until the period of interest is inside some range of demonstrated skill (5-7 days). Anyway the mid and long range discussions are excellent and informative and what make forecasting both interesting and challenging for me and apparently many others. Wes and some others are actually quite good at spotting favorable macro scale changes that could lead to a period in the mid and long range where snow is more likely or less likely. Unfortunately, for snow lovers, Wes was about 100% right about the mid and long range last year when he said the conditions are awful and continued to be awful. I'm very intrigued to see what he has to contribute to tomorrow's CWG write-up, which he says should be "more interesting" than previous write-ups. I agree there is probably more to be "gained" in the mid-long range as far as usefulness, but I don't think that's true about the shorter range. There are plenty of challenges and plenty of busts... even the next day. I agree someone like Wes is very good out into the 2-4 week range.. but he is an exception to the rule. There are a lot of people on this board who repeatedly bust at those ranges. Like I said, I think there is a growing sense that people can make a fairly logical if generic seasonal forecast.. even if they miss as much as they hit. Timing a pattern change etc... while not guesswork, is not necessarily much better. Again, a few people are measured, but many just waffle with the models which have (despite people saying they are good) little skill past 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 River wind in December. DCA just hit the high on the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Don't see the harm in the long range discussions that have been had. For one thing, without them, there's really been nothing to talk about. At all. And I love the general thoughts, as bob, zwyts, wes, mitch and others always couch their discussions with full acknowledgement of how limited the usefulness/accuracy of such discussions in that long a range. For this very infrequent commenter, it has been a good read. But I join with others in hoping the pattern shift is real so we can get some legit threats too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 If nothing else, snow people seem to be a sensitive lot. I never once said not to discuss it and I brought the convo to the banter thread for a reason. You would be sensitive as well, if there was something in your life you did not get for 2 years . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 You would be sensitive as well, if there was something in your life you did not get for 2 years . Damn you, got it before delete. I'm really not trying to draw a wedge here... I know most here understand the weaknesses in that range. I've also not said it shouldn't be discussed even though that's how the responses make it sound. I just get the sense some buy into it all more than they should for sanity sake. But, then again, none of us posting here are truly sane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 Damn you, got it before delete. I'm really not trying to draw a wedge here... I know most here understand the weaknesses in that range. I've also not said it shouldn't be discussed even though that's how the responses make it sound. I just get the sense some buy into it all more than they should for sanity sake. But, then again, none of us posting here are truly sane. The last sentence hits the nail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Damn you, got it before delete. I'm really not trying to draw a wedge here... I know most here understand the weaknesses in that range. I've also not said it shouldn't be discussed even though that's how the responses make it sound. I just get the sense some buy into it all more than they should for sanity sake. But, then again, none of us posting here are truly sane. You can delete mine I don't mind. We are more like insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Damn you, got it before delete. I'm really not trying to draw a wedge here... I know most here understand the weaknesses in that range. I've also not said it shouldn't be discussed even though that's how the responses make it sound. I just get the sense some buy into it all more than they should for sanity sake. But, then again, none of us posting here are truly sane. I doubt anyone thinks you suggested it shouldn't be discussed. I'll just reiterate that your input would be good for the discussion. Not sure how this will come across, but I also think that as a moderator you took a lot of grief over the years that may have had an impact on how much and what you post. And I am only making an observation that may be completely wrong, but from a mostly reader's pov, you seem a bit more guarded recently. If you are, and if it's a by-product of some of the petty arguing that is inherent in this type of forum, I would understand. Being a mod here I would bet is a lot like being an umpire at game for a tee ball game where adults care more about the outcome than the kids. You have taken your share of grief over the years, but it would be a loss to not have your input as a result. But as I said, I could be more wrong than the worst long-range forecast. And like you said, there hasn't been much in the near-term lately to discuss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.