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December Obs and Banter


WinterWxLuvr

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They still will not make the playoffs. Our D was horrendous today. Flacco should be embarassed to ask for anything more than 10 million a year after the way he has been playing this year. 6yr 60 million would be a gift from the Ravens.

Our D were not world beaters today either. As far as the playoffs I dont know about that yet. If RG3 is playing we can win any game.

We really need a snow storm at this point. :)

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Mid 30s with -3 850s is close enough to talk about if we get the moisture, better than the rest of the garbage in this thread

The vort max passage is ok but its strung out and I'd guess the NAM is too "amped". I'd bet it won't be that far n/w...

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This board would be in suicide mode if the day 7 GFS came to fruition in North Carolina

maybe... people like to pretend they don't mind when nc gets snow. it's bs but at least it's not the same hatred as when sne gets snow.

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maybe... people like to pretend they don't mind when nc gets snow. it's bs but at least it's not the same hatred as when sne gets snow.

I will admit to being pissed when it snows to the south but we can't get anything here.

Most frustrated I have been since moving to this area was the "snow anus" year where everyone around, north/south/west/and even east on the shore cashed in and we couldn't.

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I will admit to being pissed when it snows to the south but we can't get anything here.

Most frustrated I have been since moving to this area was the "snow anus" year where everyone around, north/south/west/and even east on the shore cashed in and we couldn't.

Dallas Texas just got their first snow:

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/photos-snowburst-whitens-texas/2572348

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Nothing to really discuss. With the persistent trough in the west we will continuously battle quick moving ridges / fronts / and troughs. Storms of any consequence will continue to pass to our north and west. Only chance is some sort of vort tracking south of us behind a post cutter front. GFS shows a couple semi-decent vorts doing that but no real surface reflection of any kind.

The reality is that anything outside of d4-5 on the models irt one of the these vorts means nothing. Models can show something and it's a complete whiff or they can be totally blank and something sneaks up on us. Flow sucks for the one @ 75hrs on 6z gfs. The one @ 174 hrs is much more interesting but a feature so small that many days in the future shouldn't be watched.

We just have to hope and pray something accidentally sneaks up on us in a short lead. Just keep looking at what the models show for 1-3 days after each cold front.

I didn't look at any models over the weekend and after a quick glance this morning it's obvious that I didn't miss anything. I am going to do some homework this week with the PNA and other anomalous - stretches. That's the only real fly in the ointment right now. Even a neutral pna would produce opportunity in this pattern. If it's not one thing it's another. We say that a lot here. Oddly with this -pna stretch it's killing the entire east coast and not just the ma.

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Nothing to really discuss. With the persistent trough in the west we will continuously battle quick moving ridges / fronts / and troughs. Storms of any consequence will continue to pass to our north and west. Only chance is some sort of vort tracking south of us behind a post cutter front. GFS shows a couple semi-decent vorts doing that but no real surface reflection of any kind.

The reality is that anything outside of d4-5 on the models irt one of the these vorts means nothing. Models can show something and it's a complete whiff or they can be totally blank and something sneaks up on us. Flow sucks for the one @ 75hrs on 6z gfs. The one @ 174 hrs is much more interesting but a feature so small that many days in the future shouldn't be watched.

We just have to hope and pray something accidentally sneaks up on us in a short lead. Just keep looking at what the models show for 1-3 days after each cold front.

I didn't look at any models over the weekend and after a quick glance this morning it's obvious that I didn't miss anything. I am going to do some homework this week with the PNA and other anomalous - stretches. That's the only real fly in the ointment right now. Even a neutral pna would produce opportunity in this pattern. If it's not one thing it's another. We say that a lot here. Oddly with this -pna stretch it's killing the entire east coast and not just the ma.

With the epo going strongly positive, good luck with that through at least the 20th and more likely the 23rd. Hopefully, tonight's guidance will show a real pattern change that gives us more opportunities.

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With the PV retreating to Siberia, we're also getting a little thin on cold air for this side of the pole. Your point about storms following cutters is well made, Bob. Euro has shown this for the ~18-20th timeframe and right now has an inland runner, but has trended it closer to the coast. Still, even the "cold" airmass on the backside is pretty weak.

DT has another good video up on his FB page and webpage and shows that this December is a very good match for 4 analog years that are La Nada years with very strong negative QBO in the late summer and fall that then rapidly rises in November and December. The good news is that the following January and February for those composites is cold for most of the eastern 3/4s of the CONUS.

JB is...of course...still being JB. Going down with the ship. DT is stubborn, but eventually he calls a spade a spade and accepts a bust.

We still might sneak in a little snow this month, but it's pretty clear the overall pattern is going to be hostile at least through Christmas and probably New Year's.

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With the PV retreating to Siberia, we're also getting a little thin on cold air for this side of the pole. Your point about storms following cutters is well made, Bob. Euro has shown this for the ~18-20th timeframe and right now has an inland runner, but has trended it closer to the coast. Still, even the "cold" airmass on the backside is pretty weak.

DT has another good video up on his FB page and webpage and shows that this December is a very good match for 4 analog years that are La Nada years with very strong negative QBO in the late summer and fall that then rapidly rises in November and December. The good news is that the following January and February for those composites is cold for most of the eastern 3/4s of the CONUS.

JB is...of course...still being JB. Going down with the ship. DT is stubborn, but eventually he calls a spade a spade and accepts a bust.

We still might sneak in a little snow this month, but it's pretty clear the overall pattern is going to be hostile at least through Christmas and probably New Year's.

I don't follow DT but what you say is interesting as HM has been hinting at the possibility of a strong mid winter based on the evolution of the QBO and stratosphere. I'm not sure what to make of it all but think the odds are that we see a cold month sometime this winter....obviously not Dec. I have little confidence in being able to call when it would come.

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I don't follow DT but what you say is interesting as HM has been hinting at the possibility of a strong mid winter based on the evolution of the QBO and stratosphere. I'm not sure what to make of it all but think the odds are that we see a cold month sometime this winter....obviously not Dec. I have little confidence in being able to call when it would come.

Yeah, I saw HM just posted that he might "go all JB on us for mid-winter". I think with the persistent -AO/-NAO that we'll get some good snows and cold weather at some point, but obviously looks like not in December. Still lots of ball game left for us.

My personal January schedule is going to be quite light before I start my new position in February, so I'd love a snowy January to enjoy with my kids!

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