Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 not in DC...more like .6" correct my bad nice to have something to track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 The euro has a substantial 5-8" event....sfc track is perfect that would fit the current GEGS ensemble mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 24, 2012 Author Share Posted December 24, 2012 .45 or so both DCA and IAD. at least .5 and probably .6 at DCA, but I guess silly to worry about QPF right now...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 24, 2012 Author Share Posted December 24, 2012 that would fit the current GEGS ensemble mean. these air masses are annoying...hopefully this one comes in after 3pm and is an evening event...looks clear and very cold for the Skins game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I will take the 4-6" snow event in a heartbeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 at least .5 and probably .6 at DCA, but I guess silly to worry about QPF right now...lol Accu site has qpf.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 24, 2012 Author Share Posted December 24, 2012 Accu site has qpf.. I know...I'm not sure how accurate anything from Accuweather is...but we are in the same ballpark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 24, 2012 Author Share Posted December 24, 2012 euro has a good pattern at d10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 at least .5 and probably .6 at DCA, but I guess silly to worry about QPF right now...lol no it's not!!! our seemingly first legit shot at some nice snow (all the models have it and the pattern is right), I'm looking for qpf baby! I might have to break down and order Accuwx Pro for a month or two just for Euro qpf if nothing else....should I? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 euro has a good pattern at d10 The D+11 mean pattern from last night still looked good so I'm not surprised. It's been pretty consistent in liking the pattern into early January. Now all we need is to get a storm or two. I'm starting to like the Dec 29-30 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I'll probably be eating every last one of these words but...after the maybe notso lame chill storm parks itself in the martimes the pattern at 500 starts to really look good. You have the pv asserting itself along with a (finally) recognizable and relatively stable +pna ridge. Pretty cold look. There is an increasing chance for a clipper event after the late week storm as well. I normally like to post clips of maps to show what I'm talking about but I'm too lazy right now. The short version is that d9+ on both the euro and gfs should have us jumping for joy...at least for now...preparing to eat words in 6 days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 24, 2012 Author Share Posted December 24, 2012 The D+11 mean pattern from last night still looked good so I'm not surprised. It's been pretty consistent in liking the pattern into early January. Now all we need is to get a storm or two. I'm starting to like the Dec 29-30 event. It has been trending our way for 24-48 hours now....too bad there is still 6 days to screw us over...2-4" would make me happy...even 1-2" would Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 24, 2012 Author Share Posted December 24, 2012 some interesting dates are showing up in these analogs for the medium range.....1/6/88....12/22/02, 12/22/66, 1/10/77, 1/1/03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Well after stealing a couple of inches this evening. I will be ready for more this weekend and the Euro is on. Solid snowstorm for all of the 95 corridor. Looks great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 The snow will come in buckets upon my return Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I like it a lot to Wes and I know this is our best shot yet. Already looking forward to your late week CWG article on this event. Wes, you break it done in golden way!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I like it a lot to Wes and I know this is our best shot yet. Already looking forward to your late week CWG article on this event. Wes, you break it done in golden way!!!! The plan is for Jason to write a short piece tomorrow and then for e to do an article Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Thanks Wes & Jason too!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Well well well look who comes crawling back: a good pattern in the climatological favorite January. Better be good. She's got some work to do around here to catch up to December & Illustrious February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Long range 18z is looking promising. PNA is in serious cooperation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 If Wednesday and the weekend pan out close to what's currently modeled, Martinsburg could end the month above-normal in snowfall in a +5 December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 It's kind of comical looking through all the panels and seeing a pretty decent look in the lr. But then you dig in and see low heights over the pole and greenland and think, uh oh. This winter definitely appears it may be exclusive pac driven. We lose the -ao/nao and have our best chance for snow and cold. LOL. Oh the irony. But it's great too because getting a productive period with a flip to a +ao/nao is making up for lost time. HL blocking will come back. This looks to be the relaxing period but the pac is trumping it. Flow is nice. First tomorrow's storm parks itself in the 50-50 spot for the weekend storm and we still have a great chance at snow. Then the weekend storm replaces the ex-chill storm. Virtually no -nao at all but an active pattern with nice spacing between storms. The ridge out west is sticking a nice area of blocking hp in central canada and the 50-50 finishes the job. If you take everything as is, storm track looks to stay favorable for quite some time. All this in the face of a less than ideal nao and ao. We'll see how it shakes out because like always...we live in the ma and snow hates us. Another thing that's interesting is the closed ull on both the gfs and euro that tracks from socal down the baha peninsula. It then tracks through mexico. With the ridge on top of it and the trough in the east, any energy that gets ejected by it could potentially get pulled up from the gulf. This is very speculative but these clips illustrate my point pretty well: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Another thing that's interesting is the closed ull on both the gfs and euro that tracks from socal down the baha peninsula. It then tracks through mexico. With the ridge on top of it and the trough in the east, any energy that gets ejected by it could potentially get pulled up from the gulf. This is very speculative but these clips illustrate my point pretty well: I have been keeping an eye on that feature for a few days now with the Euro and the GFS. Run to run solutions on how it handles it have been all over the place. Some have even shown that feature being ejected fairly quickly but then being replaced by another fairly quickly as well. But as you, I like the look and have to wonder with the split flow and energy being ejected whether we may have several snow opportunities in the next couple of weeks. The one thing about the setup though is I would think that we are more likely to see a storm sneak up on us then have something to track for 7-10 days on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 GFS has the Day 9 HM storm. No other model kicks out the southern stream though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 GFS has the Day 9 HM storm. No other model kicks out the southern stream though. the days and tracks will change....all one can say and we have been saying is that the period from 12/31 to 1/10 has the potential for a winter storm(s) or may have none...why do people get focused on one storm 10 days away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 the days and tracks will change....all one can say and we have been saying is that the period from 12/31 to 1/10 has the potential for a winter storm(s) or may have none...why do people get focused on one storm 10 days away? I think if the 12/29 storm can bomb out into the Maritimes like most models show, then and there will be a good window from 1/3 to 1/7 or so. The NAO won't be super cooperative but it doesn't look awful either. The PNA will finally be getting into a helpful state and I think that will be our best shot. If we can just get a SW to develop a surface low down over the gulf during that period...where the flow should be out of the NW with good cold established and a ridge in the west...we have a shot at something real and more then just some fluke or WAA stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 DAY 9 is the type of storm with KU potential. It's trying to draw moisture from the tropical pacific A lot can still go wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 euro has the 1/3 event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 euro has the 1/3 event... It's got its own thread now since it is there at day 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 I'll start a thread later for the January 8-9 event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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