stormtracker Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Me too but only because I am a weenie. It is still 6 days away so it is silly to do more than just casually pay attention to it. Yup. I'm not fully vested at all yet, but def keeping tabs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I think I'm more interested in the weekend system than the Chill rainer or the Christmas tease.... me too, as I think it has a chance, more than any other storm so far this season/year. I may post something here later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I mean models look decent for a nice couple inches of snow this weekend in terms of overrunning precip, coastal chances still loom. H5 has that troughiness so its hard to bomb the low, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 me too, as I think it has a chance, more than any other storm so far this season/year. I may post something here later today. It looks strung out and it still swinging out to sea and THEN getting it's act together...but I don't think we want an overly strong system if we just want to see some flakes. I'm cool with a 1 to 3 incher. Somebody take the slow ball.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Sure does look like our best shot so far would be the Dec 29. Something is better the nothing and I will take it. Still many days away and some many things could change. I have to say the Mid-Atlantic has been waiting on the agressive side for a hot minute to get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 It looks strung out and it still swinging out to sea and THEN getting it's act together...but I don't think we want an overly strong system if we just want to see some flakes. I'm cool with a 1 to 3 incher. Somebody take the slow ball.... I think weak is better in this case. A certainly don't want any phasing and a stronger northern stream. We also need the Boxing day low to hang around mear maine as long as it can to keep the wave suppressed especially at this time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 24, 2012 Author Share Posted December 24, 2012 fantasy range....GFS has 5-8" snowstorm for January 6th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 It's a shame to see after the possible 29th event we go to +AO/+NAO. We finally get the +PNA and this becomes the story of the Mid-Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 24, 2012 Author Share Posted December 24, 2012 It's a shame to see after the possible 29th event we go to +AO/+NAO. We finally get the +PNA and this becomes the story of the Mid-Atlantic. it does, but we could get something as it transitions...an Archimbault event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Yes we can get snow in a transition but history gives us a small chance!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Yes we can get snow in a transition but history gives us a small chance!!! Not really... Transition periods are kind of famous IMO for snow. If you have the KU book just look at how many snow events occur when the NAO for example is transitioning to positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 it does, but we could get something as it transitions...an Archimbault event A positive PNA is with a positive AO is more likely to get you a 4 inch storm than a negative PNA and a negative AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 looks like GFS is delaying the heat wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 A positive PNA is with a positive AO is more likely to get you a 4 inch storm than a negative PNA and a negative AO. Interesting graph, Wes. Hadn't seen that before. It's surprising and enlightening for a neophyte like me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 You guys this is the mid-Atlantic and we tend to get the Bah Humbug. I am conservative in times like this especially with the consistent let downs. I know you can get snow in the transition stage it's just the constant let downs let me to believe Bs unless its real immanent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Thanks for the graph Wes!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Today's 132 hr GEFS ensemble mean 500h pattern is not a bad one for the Dce 30th event. That doesn't mean it;s a lock to occur and that we will be snow rather than rain as there is still time for things to change and for a stronger low to track towards KY. Howevr, this particular mean would support a low squeezing to our south. I like the map because it shows how you can have a very positive NAO but still have a weakly negative AO and have blocking a decent place to get a storm to track to our south. On the map note there is a nice vortex near the maritimes south of an area above normal heights and that there is still quite a big of red above normal heights over the higher latitudes giving the AO a slightly negative look. However, also look at where I've drawn the magenta line from iceland down towards the azores. The heights over Iceland are lower than normal while higher than normal heights are located towards the azores. That's a pretty strongly positive NAO index look. However, in this case the high heights over eastern Canada and the below normal heights over the Maritimes with the remains of the old Boxing day storm provide the block. I've also annotated where the likely locations of jet streaks would be located (the arrow). Having the upper low near the Maritimes places confluence to our north and also places the right entrance region a a jet streak in close enough proximity to interact with a jet steak from the shortwave approaching the east coast. Such a double jet streak structure is a good one if you want a storm to develop along the east coast. If you look at the right hand panel you can see quite a bit a variation in how the Maritimes low is handled. That feature will play a big role in how suppressed out dec 29/30 low ends up. if the low moves too quickly east the surface low could still take a track similar to the boxing day storm. If it stays as the mean is forecasting, we have a chance for snow. ANyway, it's an interesting set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 hr 126 euro has it snowing in most of va 0c va/nc border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 24, 2012 Author Share Posted December 24, 2012 Today's 132 hr GEFS ensemble mean 500h pattern is not a bad one for the Dce 30th event. That doesn't mean it;s a lock to occur and that we will be snow rather than rain as there is still time for things to change and for a stronger low to track towards KY. Howevr, this particular mean would support a low squeezing to our south. I like the map because it shows how you can have a very positive NAO but still have a weakly negative AO and have blocking a decent place to get a storm to track to our south. On the map note there is a nice vortex near the maritimes south of an area above normal heights and that there is still quite a big of red above normal heights over the higher latitudes giving the AO a slightly negative look. However, also look at where I've drawn the magenta line from iceland down towards the azores. The heights over Iceland are lower than normal while higher than normal heights are located towards the azores. That's a pretty strongly negative NAO index look. However, in this case the high heights over eastern Canada and the below normal heights over the Maritimes with the remains of the old Boxing day storm provide the block. I've also annotated where the likely locations of jet streaks would be located (the arrow). Having the upper low near the Maritimes places confluence to our north and also places the right entrance region a a jet streak in close enough proximity to interact with a jet steak from the shortwave approaching the east coast. Such a double jet streak structure is a good one if you want a storm to develop along the east coast. If you look at the right hand panel you can see quite a bit a variation in how the Maritimes low is handled. That feature will play a big role in how suppressed out dec 29/30 low ends up. if the low moves too quickly east the surface low could still take a track similar to the boxing day storm. If it stays as the mean is forecasting, we have a chance for snow. ANyway, it's an interesting set up. Thanks for the writeup...I think you mean +NAO in the bolded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 hr 132 1004mb low over obx snow now in NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 24, 2012 Author Share Posted December 24, 2012 The euro has a substantial 5-8" event....sfc track is perfect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 hr 138 992 east of nj snows all up I95 up the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 hr 132 1004mb low over obx snow now in NY What about dc\bwi?? Edit: nvm. I see it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 24, 2012 Author Share Posted December 24, 2012 What about dc\bwi?? It is a 4-6" snowstorm for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 What about dc\bwi?? oh yea hr 144 bombing 976 eastern LI 0.25"+ ric to dc seems light but we can worry about that later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 24, 2012 Author Share Posted December 24, 2012 oh yea hr 144 bombing 976 eastern LI 0.25"+ ric to dc seems light but we can worry about that later not in DC...more like .6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Thanks for the writeup...I think you mean +NAO in the bolded Thanks, I'll edit it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 hr 150 968 inside the benchmark boston getting smoked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 24, 2012 Author Share Posted December 24, 2012 hr 150 968 inside the benchmark boston getting smoked you actually look outside our region?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 not in DC...more like .6" .45 or so both DCA and IAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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