psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I'm confused ...euro has a warm rain on dec 30 The last few runs have been less and less impressive for our snow chances in the longer range. They seem to be losing the favorable Atlantic setup just as the pacific gets more cooperative. Models have been aweful that far out anyways so maybe they are wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 The 0Z Euro ensemble looked okay for 12/30. The operational looked just like the 12/27 storm - good for chicago. Obviously there is a lot of spread on the 12/29-12/30 event still, but there is a chance that we have a better 50/50 low in place at 12/29, so it bares watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 23, 2012 Author Share Posted December 23, 2012 29th is probably a snow start...a more organized storm than it has been Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Euro has had arctic air over us on Day 9-10 for 9-10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 29th is probably a snow start...a more organized storm than it has been Where's teh low track, looks like Tn or Oh valley and then a jump but I can't tell how far north it gets based on the bad temporal resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Where's teh low track, looks like Tn or Oh valley and then a jump but I can't tell how far north it gets based on the bad temporal resolution. looking at the Euro home site 500mb charts, I'll bet it ends up a clone to the Chill system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 23, 2012 Author Share Posted December 23, 2012 Where's teh low track, looks like Tn or Oh valley and then a jump but I can't tell how far north it gets based on the bad temporal resolution. Over PIT and then jumps to over NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 18Z GFS gives BWI .3in for the 29th system, surface temps and 850s below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 After we get thru this week's letdown, 18z GFS looks pretty cold with a couple of chances to track in the next ten days or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Euro looked really nice to close out the year for temps. Other guidance looks similar. See a ridge out West pop all the way into BC with plenty of cold to tap is a pretty classic look for cold. I'm retiring from focusing on storms in the lr this year. At least until we get a +pna and some sort of hl blocking. I can deal with suppression. Storms tracking to the west are the worst. My storm sucks. I knew it once my name got put on it. My rep took a major beating. Time to shut up for a while...LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 The 0Z Euro ensemble looked okay for 12/30. The operational looked just like the 12/27 storm - good for chicago. Obviously there is a lot of spread on the 12/29-12/30 event still, but there is a chance that we have a better 50/50 low in place at 12/29, so it bares watching. Not to my eyes, it has the primary tracking to TN/KY and at 144 hrs has the 850 temps above freezing. It looks very similar to the Boxing day storm in terms of evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 24, 2012 Author Share Posted December 24, 2012 12/29 looking good on GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 12/29 looking good on GFS I'm looking at NCEP out to 135 hrs with anticipation....it looked pretty good up to that point nice ridge out west developing too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Next weekend looks good enough for now. Surface and 850's cold enough and not dealing with a hybrid on this run. TBH- I'm rooting for a less amped overunning scenario right now. Glancing at 5h looks like another week of big jumps in solutions. This run looks less volatile than the lame ass chill storm but we all know this run and many future ones aren't right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Euro looks like at least some borderline potential for overrunning early in sys d10.. probably implies light mix/snow to rain.. for now. The bowling ball out west is pretty far north all along. Looks like it wants to lift into a cutter late already. West coast ridge at least. euro ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 maybe the storm after next week (the post-chill event?) will do it. right now it just shears out to the south.. overrunning! btw if dec 29 happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Next weekend looks good enough for now. Surface and 850's cold enough and not dealing with a hybrid on this run. TBH- I'm rooting for a less amped overunning scenario right now. Glancing at 5h looks like another week of big jumps in solutions. This run looks less volatile than the lame ass chill storm but we all know this run and many future ones aren't right. LOL at the "lame ass chill storm". Nice to see someone who knows what he is talking about laugh at himself. Not that you need to kick yourself for the "Chill" storm. But I have to agree that jumps in the modeled 5H are going to drive us all crazy this week. Very active atmosphere right now and from my perspective the models have some difficulty assessing the outcome from day to day, as we have seen recently. At the surface and 850 the 29/30 storm looks good. I think it looks better than anything to date from this range. Fortunately it doesn't look perfect because we all know that what we see 7 days in advance is NOT what will be. It's going to be fun to follow. I hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Wes is going to so some weenie stomping in the morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Wes is going to so some weenie stomping in the morning GFS gives us 80-120 inches of snow on paper every winter. Wes takes away about 75-115 of them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 GFS gives us 80-120 inches of snow on paper every winter. Wes takes away about 75-115 of them Good. Better than you getting excited about a 25 inch storm that will never happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 00z euro much colder for dec 30 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Dec 29-30 storm right where we want it 6z gfs, get some overrunning regardless but coastal goes just offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Dec 29-30 storm right where we want it 6z gfs, get some overrunning regardless but coastal goes just offshore. I think the potential with the 29-30 storm will all be dependent on what the previous storm does. Right now the models are showing it becoming a 50/50 low but with how the models have been handling the Chill storm one has to wonder if the 50/50 will actually be there when we need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Euro has monster event for Boston NYC ...they get 10-12 we get 3-4:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 6z gfs looks like non sticking snow to me for the 29th or so...hope it changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Euro has monster event for Boston NYC ...they get 10-12 we get 3-4:( The evolution on the models for the dec 29 system reminds me a lot of the jan 2005 storm. Enough of a trough into the lakes to keep the coastal from wrapping up quick. Would be a thump snow then dry slot. Nj north east would have a chance at a lot more. I like early jan for a chance at a big event for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Too much trough in the lakes still might capture the southern stream. If it stays weak we have a chance for snow, if not it ends up like the Boxing day storm. I think it's about a 50% percent shot at either being right. I've also never liked trough extending towards teh lakes but time will tell whether that is important or not. The Boxing day storm needs to provide the block to keep the low south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 For perhaps the first time this winter, the 6-10 day forecast (29 Dec to 2 Jan) calls for below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I think I'm more interested in the weekend system than the Chill rainer or the Christmas tease.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 24, 2012 Author Share Posted December 24, 2012 I think I'm more interested in the weekend system than the Chill rainer or the Christmas tease.... Me too but only because I am a weenie. It is still 6 days away so it is silly to do more than just casually pay attention to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.