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December Mid-Long Range Discussion


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Need to keep it weak as the 500 looks too much like the old euro did when it had the storm a day or so ago. I don't like having a vortex back towards the lakes. Still it's something to watch.

just noticed the sfc low up in the great lakes...that is an old Mitchnick/zwyts rule that we probably adopted from you...I don't remember....but we always put the kabosh on a storm where there is another sfc low up in the lakes

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just noticed the sfc low up in the great lakes...that is an old Mitchnick/zwyts rule that we probably adopted from you...I don't remember....but we always put the kabosh on a storm where there is another sfc low up in the lakes

I get a little over excited last night . Good chance we have no snow during holiday period

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the event on 12/29 still looks like a 1-3"snow event

Edit...I see Wes likes the Euro solution which is warm and north

lol, hopefully, you don't mean me, do you?

No man. I love you. Redskin fan...wizards fan...weather genius and haven't busted since feb 14 2007 storm

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how bout 1/5-1/10 before maybe the pattern breaks?....we got back to back events in 1997 before we got warm again....we just need a weak wave to dump 1-3" before it changes over or shuts off

Pattern break? We're not even in a new pattern yet

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how bout 1/5-1/10 before maybe the pattern breaks?....we got back to back events in 1997 before we got warm again....we just need a weak wave to dump 1-3" before it changes over or shuts off

I'm certainly not advocating that we can't get something in the next 10 days. The pattern is better than its' been though i worry some about the northern stream dominating how that the pna is positive sort of like happens during a nina but that may be pessimistic nature. Sounds like the MJO or some other type of tropical forcing may keep some southern stream energy going. .

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I normally don't go out more the 5 days on model surfing. I can't help it but the 1st week of January looks very interesting to me. I am sure I am not the only one thinking the same thing. So far at that time period it's showing -AO/-NAO/+PNA

and that is the best I have seen in along time. I still have a sour taste in my mouth after last year.

Happy Holidays everyone!!!

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how bout 1/5-1/10 before maybe the pattern breaks?....we got back to back events in 1997 before we got warm again....we just need a weak wave to dump 1-3" before it changes over or shuts off

That sounds really pessimistic to me. We are not even in a good pattern yet and I hope when one does develop it lasts more then 5 days and delivers more then 1-3". Keep in mind if that we're to occur and we go into another raging -Pna pattern it could be feb before things reload and then those panicking might be justified as we could be facing back to back historically bad snowfall years. It could happen but you say it like its no big deal.

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