showmethesnow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 06Z GFS loses the Jan 1 storm and basically stays cold and dry until fantasy land where it turns warm and wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 06Z GFS loses the Jan 1 storm and basically stays cold and dry until fantasy land where it turns warm and wet. Would the appropriate response be it is just the 06z? Hasn't it shown up consistently on all the other runs? The 12z will be telling... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Would the appropriate response be it is just the 06z? Hasn't it shown up consistently on all the other runs? The 12z will be telling... Yep, the 12Z will be telling. Next Saturdays 12Z that is. That storm is so far off it is hard for me to get excited one way or the other on each run. But it is nice to see a fairly strong signal for it as well as many Mets talking up the possibility. Hopefully come next weekend we are all discussing how much as opposed to where did it go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The CPC D+11 ensemble mean still shows a pretty nice pattern. Note how similar it looks to a composite of good dc snow year composite. The ensembles are now starting to support a positive PNA pattern with a ridge poking up into western NA. That's a welcome change as a positive PNA has a pretty strong correlation with cooler than normal temps across us especially with a negative AO. Both the D+8 and D+11 show similar patterns so I'll only post the latter. It still looks pretty similar to the one I posted Monday when I noted that it had several nice snowy analogs. This one also has several, two being 4 inch or greater storms and one being a double digit one. Note that the image has ridging over western Canada but still has hints of troughing over the southwest suggesting split flow and that there will be some southern stream energy. That doesn't mean we will get a storm or even that any storm that comes east is a lock to track to our south but it does raise the possibility of winter weather over what it has been and over normal climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Oh boy...here we go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 GFS should make Ian happy...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 So now the trend starts for this thing to go back to a Minneapolis snow storm....yay...model watching...it's serious bidnez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Get out. Pls insert weenie map. Waiting on the 18z now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Well, according to the gfs, if christmas and the following storm are whiffs we now have a d8 overunner to track... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Well, according to the gfs, if christmas and the following storm are whiffs we now have a d8 overunner to track... It has a weak storm giving us light snow on Dec 29 (180hr) for what little that is worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 It has a weak storm giving us light snow on Dec 29 (180hr) for what little that is worth. On top of that it shows a warm pattern shaping up to start off January. The cold from last nights runs is pretty much gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 GFS should make Ian happy...lol Not a bad place for this range. My initial thoughts were overrunning anyway.. But I'll pretend the big blizzard was my plan if it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Not a bad place for this range. My initial thoughts were overrunning anyway.. But I'll pretend the big blizzard was my plan if it happens. If the GGEM and UKMET jump inland then i'm bailing on this bad boy.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 If the GGEM and UKMET jump inland then i'm bailing on this bad boy.... dosent look like UKMET or GGEM moved from their 00z position. GFS is outlier right now it appears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 If the GGEM and UKMET jump inland then i'm bailing on this bad boy.... Ahh was talking the early Jan sys. I hope you get rain on Boxing Day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 dosent look like UKMET or GGEM moved from their 00z position. GFS is outlier right now it appears Thank you Ji...I can now step back from the ledge but will keep the window open. No change at all in their positions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Ahh was talking the early Jan sys. I hope you get rain on Boxing Day... Lol...I know where to put my banter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 dosent look like UKMET or GGEM moved from their 00z position. GFS is outlier right now it appears Actually I think they both changed to jumpers instead of coast crawlers...I'm thinking that's a bad sign. I'm about to bail on this one...only was thinking some sleet anyway but now my final call is dry slot and less than .10 of pure rain...lol Just kidding...I don't know and never have..we will see I suppose...euro should be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Well UKMET has a 987 low at the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Well UKMET has a 987 low at the benchmark. There are reports of a singing naked guy in the NE CT mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Models in winter are usually quite good with onset of mild or cold regimes. Not good with low pressure placements 5+ days out. Even though it's not of much use I would not dispair over Jan 3rd temps being shown as high of 18 and low of 5 on 0z to high of 40 and low of 28 on 12z-that's just what models do this far out; cover all the bases so that a hit can be claimed come verification time and thus the funding keeps rolling in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 22, 2012 Author Share Posted December 22, 2012 Models in winter are usually quite good with onset of mild or cold regimes. Not good with low pressure placements 5+ days out. Even though it's not of much use I would not dispair over Jan 3rd temps being shown as high of 18 and low of 5 on 0z to high of 40 and low of 28 on 12z-that's just what models do this far out; cover all the bases so that a hit can be claimed come verification time and thus the funding keeps rolling in. That isn't how the models are designed.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I think we have to wait another run before bailing. Change was too drastic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Dr. No, how could we ever of doubted your true intentions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 That isn't how the models are designed.... It's what they do, years of results speak for themself. Moving a low 500 miles in 12 hours, changing temperatures 30 degrees in 12 hours. Models do not show what is the statistically most likely outcome, they show all the variables that might happen and that is such a wide array as to be unuseful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 It's what they do, years of results speak for themself. Moving a low 500 miles in 12 hours, changing temperatures 30 degrees in 12 hours. Models do not show what is the statistically most likely outcome, they show all the variables that might happen and that is such a wide array as to be unuseful. Yeah like the track of sandy days in advance was not useful. Some patterns are very unpredictable. That's why you use ensemble guidance and probabilities. The ensembles have consistently said not to jump too quickly onto a single deterministic forecast with this storm. Other storms like the feb 5, 2010 event you can be pretty sure days ahead of the storm. I think we've had this discussion before and never have resolved our different views. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 It's what they do, years of results speak for themself. Moving a low 500 miles in 12 hours, changing temperatures 30 degrees in 12 hours. Models do not show what is the statistically most likely outcome, they show all the variables that might happen and that is such a wide array as to be unuseful. Part of being a meteorologist is not just looking at models exactly. It's looking at them and then taking in their biases, seeing if the current pattern supports it, comparing it to analogs, etc. We knew 1 thing with this storm. If there was no confluence there would be nothing stopping it from going inland. You could also realize based on model biases that the GFS is almost always surpressed 3-5 days before an KU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 anything else on the euro through 240? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The 18Z GFS still has the second storm. It looks pretty nice on this run, actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Early Jan storm right where we want it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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