December Mid-Long Range Discussion

[Deck Pic]

153 hours...996mb off hatteras...huge slug of snow moving into SW/Central VA

[stormtracker]

150 hrs...very close to a snowstorm

track is almost perfect

Probably is, it's just so strung out and ugly looking. Can't ask for much more at this point though.

EDIT: I'm only at 147

[Deck Pic]

LOL....RDU snowstorm....they get tatooed

[mitchnick]

150 hrs...very close to a snowstorm

track is almost perfect

this is 147 hrs so I'm not so sure it still wouldn't hit us

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F20%2F2012+18UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=700_rh_ht&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=147&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

[Deck Pic]

Probably is, it's just so strung out and ugly looking. Can't ask for much more at this point though.

it's not....it gets super organized

[Deck Pic]

DT is going to go nuts....Big snow event for Central NC/SE VA

[mitchnick]

if that lobe on the SW corner of the 50/50 low relaxes just a bit for us, we get nailed (verbatim)

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F20%2F2012+18UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=500_vort_ht&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=147&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

[stormtracker]

if that lobe on the SW corner of the 50/50 low relaxes just a bit for us, we get nailed (verbatim)

http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M

Yeah, we just miss on this run, but RDU and Central VA get it on the chin

[MN Transplant]

Obviously further south than we would like to see in the metro region, but better than a cutter

[Deck Pic]

if that lobe on the SW corner of the 50/50 low relaxes just a bit for us, we get nailed (verbatim)

http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M

this is a great run for us...wow...complete model chaos

[Midlo Snow Maker]

wow what a run and what a change

northern half of nc 8-12" with lolli's of 12-18"

[WinterWxLuvr]

sorry....looks suppressed...diffuse weak low...

Quite a few of the 12z members had a similar look.

At some point the possibility of this giving us a significant winter event has to move beyond the "unlikely" category.

[stormtracker]

Obviously further south than we would like to see in the metro region, but better than a cutter

I'm actually ok with that at this point and time. I mean yesterday we had a storm that was about 500 miles to our west.

[Huffwx]

Yeah, precip doesn't quite make it past me-- I'm fringed via this run. ALA 150 miles SW of DC.

[midatlanticweather]

Is it time for this thing to get it's own thread yet?

Now that we are close to 5 days in. We need to also look beyond to the next threat so we have something to fall back on if this threat is a bust!

[usedtobe]

DT is going to go nuts....Big snow event for Central NC/SE VA

I'm not that surprised the GFS as the off hours for some reason have always had a more suppressed look than the 00Z or 12Z. What's bad is the GFS likes suppressed storms and the euro likes wrapping storms up. That makes knowing which way to go really tough. I still like the low wrapping up quicker than the GFS but it all depends on Bobs block south of hudson bay and the trough that develops in response to it. That feature is what keeps the low south. There are huge differences at 500h between the two camps. I still think an inland track is more likely but I'm certainly not good enough to know for sure which camp is right. At least I'll probalby get an article out of it tomorrow.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Isn't it sort of unusual for the HPC to not issue an afternoon extended discussion? I was hoping to see their thoughts on this.

[NJwinter23]

The 12z ECMWF ensembles are pretty bad if you want accumulating snowfall in the I-95 corridor. It is as simple as that; although, it doesn't mean they're right.

If we had a deeper cold source, this would easily be a winter storm, or all snow event, and the subtleties of the "50-50 low and blocking" wouldn't be nearly as important (unless you are north of the snow/no snow line).

Yeah the european suite is a toaster bath for all in the east. I like your punting mindset and hope to be pleasantly surprised with this. Its not impossible for a snowy outcome and it ties into the subtleties/nuances you mention with the bootleg blocking and "50/50 se canada low" ...If we can get a stronger initial wave on xmas eve/xmas morning and not havie the se canada vortex (which forms behind todays blizzard) split with 1 half into central canada and the other half escaping towards greenland (like thwe euro shows) then we would have a shot .. its not very cold, but its cold enough for this this combo to allow surface HP to push into quebec ahead of our second wave/the bigger storm threat . The colder 18z gfs run shows that vortex staying in tact in se canada, with the block merging into south-central canada instead of Nova Scotia allowing for colder solutions...of course it now suppresses it and still misses NJ lol...ya cant win rocky, ya cant win

...Im not holding my breath for the 18z gfs to pull a coup over the euro kind sir

[MN Transplant]

Jan 2 storm is still there.

[Bob Chill]

Like Ian's been saying...18z gfs just wants to go hog wild lately.

I don't think anybody can deny that it's *possible* to get all snow. It's just going to take some perfect events leading up and perfect placement of those leftovers in the following days.

Maybe it's time to say snow covered deep dish pizza is off the table now?

[WxMan1]

What desk will you be on?

Wes,

The winter wx desk (WWD). 7 nights. I get to see how all this plays out, up close and personal ;-)

[Ji]

No matter what solution is... We can't seem to get snow from dec 26-27 event but everyone to n

S and west of us can

[cpasi]

The 18z gefs would beg to differ

[clskinsfan]

Jan 2 storm is still there.

Yes and its still a monster. Plenty of cold air on tap for it as well. This one might be "the one" as the temps are marginal until that period?

[Ian]

The 18z gefs would beg to differ

heh. op has 8-12 across most of NC with bullseyes of more.. ensemble mean has nothing there and pushes accum line a bit west of 12z ensemble mean (still mtns). The ens mean is not necessarily a closed door thing as it's fairly cold aloft but think it's probably safe to say the 18z op is garbage.

[HM]

Yeah the european suite is a toaster bath for all in the east. I like your punting mindset and hope to be pleasantly surprised with this. Its not impossible for a snowy outcome and it ties into the subtleties/nuances you mention with the bootleg blocking and "50/50 se canada low" ...If we can get a stronger initial wave on xmas eve/xmas morning and not havie the se canada vortex (which forms behind todays blizzard) split with 1 half into central canada and the other half escaping towards greenland (like thwe euro shows) then we would have a shot .. its not very cold, but its cold enough for this this combo to allow surface HP to push into quebec ahead of our second wave/the bigger storm threat . The colder 18z gfs run shows that vortex staying in tact in se canada, with the block merging into south-central canada instead of Nova Scotia allowing for colder solutions...of course it now suppresses it and still misses NJ lol...ya cant win rocky, ya cant win

...Im not holding my breath for the 18z gfs to pull a coup over the euro kind sir

What you said here is how we could get a snowier outcome, by chance. All of these little things would have to come together to keep the coastal plain mostly snow. I'm worried the Pacific influence will screw over the Canadian setup from being ideal. You cannot safely say, "snow is on the way because of the pattern" at this point unless you are trying to sell something...so you and I will do the same thing as everyone else and hope the pieces fall into place. This puzzle happens to be 1000+ with no edges.

[HM]

heh. op has 8-12 across most of NC with bullseyes of more.. ensemble mean has nothing there and pushes accum line a bit west of 12z ensemble mean (still mtns). The ens mean is not necessarily a closed door thing as it's fairly cold aloft but think it's probably safe to say the 18z op is garbage.

This isn't addressed at you only but I think it would also be smart to count how many individual members are pro, con, etc. The means in this case could just be averaging out several extreme solutions.

[Ian]

This isn't addressed at you only but I think it would also be smart to count how many individual members are pro, con, etc. The means in this case could just be averaging out several extreme solutions.

Right. I've pointed out a few times I'm not sure how much I'd hug the mean in this scenario as it's probably two camps etc. BUT, the 18z GFS is a huge outlier and also would be a historic storm.. so it's probably wrong IMO.

[earthlight]

Yeah the european suite is a toaster bath for all in the east. I like your punting mindset and hope to be pleasantly surprised with this. Its not impossible for a snowy outcome and it ties into the subtleties/nuances you mention with the bootleg blocking and "50/50 se canada low" ...If we can get a stronger initial wave on xmas eve/xmas morning and not havie the se canada vortex (which forms behind todays blizzard) split with 1 half into central canada and the other half escaping towards greenland (like thwe euro shows) then we would have a shot .. its not very cold, but its cold enough for this this combo to allow surface HP to push into quebec ahead of our second wave/the bigger storm threat . The colder 18z gfs run shows that vortex staying in tact in se canada, with the block merging into south-central canada instead of Nova Scotia allowing for colder solutions...of course it now suppresses it and still misses NJ lol...ya cant win rocky, ya cant win

...Im not holding my breath for the 18z gfs to pull a coup over the euro kind sir

That Christmas shortwave being stronger and farther south on the GFS/GGEM etc. drags the baroclinic zone south with it. The Euro is w-a-y farther north and west with that. The second storm can transfer the low pressure development to the coast pretty quickly if that's the way it goes down. Cold air source to the north is also way better on the GFS...traps the vortex underneath the big Central Canada pig ridge.

[PhineasC]

I would be fine with the 18Z GFS at this range as a small adjustment in the strength of the block would get us in the upper third of the storm which is the place to be, I think.