Ian Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Is it a transfer or does it ride the coast Up the apps. Maybe starting to transfer by us but not noticeable until it's in NJ.. isobars bend like it's doing something a bit prior though. I'm still not a huge fan of the mean on this one for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Are you talking about after Christmas? If so, what are you seeing for Christmas eve? The wunder maps make it look like we have precip with 2m and 850s just above freezing (in my area). Yes, post-Christmas. Both op and mean of the Euro look too warm south of the MD/PA border for Christmas eve/Christmas am. The mean is warmer than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Pretty hard to not see the difference between today's 12z run and yesterdays. I also have a hard time seeing a low in northern Ga/northern Al going up the west side of the Apps. I know anything can happen, but is that common? A true organized low moving across northern Georgia rarely goes up or west of applchns. In fact, it is the "slot" track for significant snow in DC. Models are of no use at this point in trying to identify a snow versus rain track in a 75 mile variability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 A true organized low moving across northern Georgia rarely goes up or west of applchns. In fact, it is the "slot" track for significant snow in DC. Models are of no use at this point in trying to identify a snow versus rain track in a 75 mile variability. I tend to agree here with this.. just from a Laymans view once these things are positioned in Northern Georgia the movement is going to have some sort of easterly component. Unless you have a retrograde in low track... If it gets in to the SE... it will probably not track significantly west of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 A true organized low moving across northern Georgia rarely goes up or west of applchns. In fact, it is the "slot" track for significant snow in DC. Models are of no use at this point in trying to identify a snow versus rain track in a 75 mile variability. If the trough goes negatively tilted over the SE states, as it is in this depiction, it can most certainly take this track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 If the trough goes negatively tilted over the SE states, as it is in this depiction, it can most certainly take this track. Yup. Plus most snowstorms don't have +4 850s over DC when the low is entering N Ga. N Ga. might be in the zone of some events but you'd generally want it further south or a different trough setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Yup. Plus most snowstorms don't have +4 850s over DC when the low is entering N Ga. N Ga. might be in the zone of some events but you'd generally want it further south or a different trough setup. The trough says it goes north and west of us on the euro ens mean and then reforms somewhere north of us. even if it were to come east of the mountains, it would be inland runner with such deep trough. Looks very supportive of the operational euro except the 850 temps are eve a little warmer (I think from eyeballing it). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 The trough says it goes north and west of us on the euro ens mean and then reforms somewhere north of us. even if it were to come east of the mountains, it would be inland runner with such deep trough. Looks very supportive of the operational euro except the 850 temps are eve a little warmer (I think from eyeballing it). The 12z ECMWF ensembles are pretty bad if you want accumulating snowfall in the I-95 corridor. It is as simple as that; although, it doesn't mean they're right. If we had a deeper cold source, this would easily be a winter storm, or all snow event, and the subtleties of the "50-50 low and blocking" wouldn't be nearly as important (unless you are north of the snow/no snow line). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 The 12z ECMWF ensembles are pretty bad if you want accumulating snowfall in the I-95 corridor. It is as simple as that; although, it doesn't mean they're right. If we had a deeper cold source, this would easily be a winter storm, or all snow event, and the subtleties of the "50-50 low and blocking" wouldn't be nearly as important (unless you are north of the snow/no snow line). I'm not expecting much from this but would lvoe to be surprised. I'm hoping it will set the stage for something farther down the road as we discussed earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 HPC is siding with the GEFS correct, so I'm not to worried about the Euro or its ensembles at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I'm not expecting much from this but would lvoe to be surprised. I'm hoping it will set the stage for something farther down the road as we discussed earlier. Let's hope this storm continues to carve out lower heights in SE Canada / NW Atlantic into January; so that when real Arctic Air arrives, we will be able to get an all snow event. The question is: when does the PNA actually go up in early January, if at all? If the forcing gets stuck in the La Nina regions, the PNA may stay negative through the first half of January, possibly changing mid-month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 Christmas eve? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Christmas eve? That's the one I like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 It looks good so far for the post Christmas storm. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Nice little xmas snows NW of I-95 on 18zGFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Nice little xmas snows NW of I-95 on 18zGFS Surface temps are pretty marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 Surface temps are pretty marginal. yes...profiles are probably very suspect but it is showing a nice slug of moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 stronger Christmas system should push the boundary further south, which is good, but we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 stronger Christmas system should push the boundary further south, which is good, but we'll see Appears it is by a bit comparing 12z/18z. But not far enough along yet to get a clear pic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 whoa...big changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Appears it is by a bit comparing 12z/18z. But not far enough along yet to get a clear pic judging by Matt's post below yours, it did! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Um...I don't even... Suppressed? Looks to be more east if anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 whoa...big changes i know you're our bud but not great examples for the pinned thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 judging by Matt's post below yours, it did! If this was the end of the run, I'd swear this was a Miller A that was gonna get us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Um...I don't even... Suppressed? Looks to be more east if anything teach me to go by Matt's excited posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 i know you're our bud but not great examples for the pinned thread sorry....looks suppressed...diffuse weak low... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Yeah, another huge change...but in the right direction. Redevelopment looks to be well south of 12z's position...but could be too much of a good thing and out to sea? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 sorry....looks suppressed...diffuse weak low... Ah, that's right..you have the panels before us on SV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 150 hrs...very close to a snowstorm track is almost perfect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Yeah, another huge change...but in the right direction. Redevelopment looks to be well south of 12z's position...but could be too much of a good thing and out to sea? at 5 days, 12/19/09 was suppressed too so I'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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