aldie 22 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 The GFS is so lol. Every run is totally different. SE bias. I think there's a growing signal for the mtns to cash in at least. But yeah, coastal transfers are messy for us and often slower than modeled. There's usually an area between the blue ridge and say Fairfax county that gets royally screwed with coastal jumpers....i'll give you map readers a minute to figure out where that is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 The setup is good but it's still mainly rain for I-95 east. Western burbs get snow and ice but it's too early to look at the surface temps and detail anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 850-700 thicknesses don't look great for snow on the GFS. 0C line at sfc and 850 ride right down I-81. Sleet/freezing rain ending as snow for me on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 With the track... looks like the lack of cold air around here is going to be the dagger. Still plenty of time... and the trend is remarkable. Perhaps it threads the needle We've still got a lot of time. It may end up trending back west... or east for that matter. The 500 look on the GFS changes like crazy every run. The antecedent air mass is not great.. Still hard to hope for a snow event in the lowlands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherQ Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Bob...isn't it more important to see the pattern coming into focus from a near Spring like set up to the cold and stormier (non lake cutting) pattern that would have us in the NAO/AO/PNA/EPO jackpot set up? I figure we may miss the Dec. 27-28 storm and NYC-BOS may bullseye that baby, but the GFS had 2 more big signals from D10 to D15. Your thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 There's usually an area between the blue ridge and say Fairfax county that gets royally screwed with coastal jumpers....i'll give you map readers a minute to figure out where that is Manassas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Well, I'm getting old and my memory is not what it used to be but I don't remember many 850 low tracks that go up the chesapeake after jumping from the apps/ov to off the NC coast. Baroclonic zone would seem much more likely of a track IF it happened as shown but that's about as likely as the skins not having a losing season...oh wait... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Anyone notice how between 156 and 159 the low almost goes straight north across the VA capes? You almost never see that kind of movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Verbatim i95 weenies commit suicide, so close yet so far. But the gfs is all over regardless a la Ian. Tell you what though, based on the blocking pattern and the position of the high to the north, coastal redevelopment could for once thread the needle. Stay tuned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 How the hell did this go from a CHI special to a coast redeveloper so quick. GFS, lol. Let's see what the good Doctor has in store. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 The GFS is so lol. Every run is totally different. SE bias. I think there's a growing signal for the mtns to cash in at least. But yeah, coastal transfers are messy for us and often slower than modeled. Agreed. Jumpers usually are not good for our area. But there is one heck of a block up north. It might be enough to get the jump to occur far enough south. Definitely has my interest for MBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 How the hell did this go from a CHI special to a coast redeveloper so quick. GFS, lol. Let's see what the good Doctor has in store. Magic in the maritimes for the most part. It's funny how large of a difference handling a relatively small feature can make when it's a key ingredient. We've been saying all week that there is really nothing that can force this south with a few exceptions. Not being so darn strong so early. Check. Having some sort of 50-50 feature in the vicinity of the maritimes. Check. Change either one and we have to roadtrip for some deep dish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 How the hell did this go from a CHI special to a coast redeveloper so quick. GFS, lol. Let's see what the good Doctor has in store. Watch the 500s in a loop. it is easy to see how a piece breaks off over the maritimes and keeps anything from climbing. Is it right is the million $ question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I think this is a really nice comparison between 6z yesterday morning and the 12z run today. The closed ull isn't all that different in placement and strength but the area around the maritimes sure is. 2 very different tracks on the runs. 6z from yestersday: 12z today: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 How the hell did this go from a CHI special to a coast redeveloper so quick. GFS, lol. Let's see what the good Doctor has in store. The good doctor went from a low in northern Indiana to a low in northern Georgia in its last run. It ain't been too stellar either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Yeah, slight differences there. That 12z 500mb chart is as close as I've seen to what it looked like "originally" 5-6 days ago when it was a bowling ball snowstorm for us on the progs. Strong Baffin Island ridging and an elongated upper low across southern Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 How the hell did this go from a CHI special to a coast redeveloper so quick. GFS, lol. Let's see what the good Doctor has in store. Crazy run-to-run changes, that's what. I guess you could argue that there's some sort of a trend right now, and that the GFS is sniffing out something now that it wasn't seeing earlier, but I'm still expecting Lucy to come waltzing her punk-azz in at any time. The Doctor will eventually prescribe a large dosage of No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Crazy run-to-run changes, that's what. I guess you could argue that there's some sort of a trend right now, and that the GFS is sniffing out something now that it wasn't seeing earlier, but I'm still expecting Lucy to come waltzing her punk-azz in at any time. The Doctor will eventually prescribe a large dosage of No. It actually did see it earlier, kinda, about 5.5 days ago. Watching this whole thing evolve has been the most fun of the season. I'm really interested in Christmas eve. Not sure it'll be anything, but something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Wow @ GFS ensemble mean. As I said in the banter thread, there's always a risk of a biasing of the mean by extreme outliers and the 6z ensembles certainly had a large amount of spread. Ensembles BARELY have a 50/50, but apparently it's just enough to force confluence over the northeast and keep this storm to our southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I know its in La La land but the New Years Storm is looking amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Bob...isn't it more important to see the pattern coming into focus from a near Spring like set up to the cold and stormier (non lake cutting) pattern that would have us in the NAO/AO/PNA/EPO jackpot set up? I figure we may miss the Dec. 27-28 storm and NYC-BOS may bullseye that baby, but the GFS had 2 more big signals from D10 to D15. Your thoughts? I'm probably not the one to ask. Running through the lr @ 500 looks without question cold here. But big changes from a dominant pattern should always be viewed as suspect irt how quickly things evolved. I have believed that the PNA is likely to at the very least relax. ENS show even more promise of that today but it's still out there. As far as the storm signals go in the lr, they don't look as good to me this far out as the 26-28 period did to me back at the same lead time but that really isn't saying much to be honest. If you simply just go off of the d 10-15 on the gfs it's favors dry more than wet. Big ridge showing up in AK that really helps transport a good bit of cold air into our parts. Ridge also flexing in the western US. Problem with that is it cuts off the moisture feed. So we can get some sort of clipperish vort diving out of canada that runs underneath us for a couple inches but if you want something big you have to rely on the split flow with something slipping underneath. Then we have fun with phasing, timing, suppression, etc. No way I'm making any calls when a very stable pattern appears to be breaking down and reshuffling. But we live and die by temps more often than not so if you believe the gfs in the lr then it's going to be cold. That in itself is a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I know its in La La land but the New Years Storm is looking amazing. This one has been showing up on the models consistently no matter what form this next storm takes.......... I like this one better for snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 We've still got a lot of time. It may end up trending back west... or east for that matter. The 500 look on the GFS changes like crazy every run. The antecedent air mass is not great.. Still hard to hope for a snow event in the lowlands. My guess is that it will trend back west if it keeps some kind of upper low over the great lakes but that's a wag. This system remains really tricky. I still think rain is way more likely than snow and a track west of us is more likely than one east but in any formal write up, I'd proably waffle some to give myself room for changes. Yesterday, I didn't do that enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 My guess is that it will trend back west if it keeps some kind of upper low over the great lakes but that's a wag. This system remains really tricky. I still think rain is way more likely than snow and a track west of us is more likely than one east but in any formal write up, I'd proably waffle some to give myself room for changes. Yesterday, I didn't do that enough. Wes, Nice CWG writeup, by the way (post-Christmas). I begin a week of 7 mids starting tonight on the winter weather desk. Should be interesting to see how this 12/26-27 event will pan out. Either way, regardless of the track, looks like the workload will pick up after the weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Anyone see the 12z CMC? Had a nice clipper for Xmas followed by a better solution for the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I don't have much to say except that the super ensemble mean for D+8 is the nicest so far by far. The pattern is shown has 3 analogs that produced a 4 inch storm within 3 days of the centered mean, dec 1966, Dec 2009, Jan 1, 2001. It also had another that fell witin 5 days. That big of storm is so limo unusual that having 3 analog dates clustered that closely suggests that the pattern finally is one that is above average for snowfall. The D+11 also isn't that different. I looked for the D+11 Centered mean from Dec 2009 I know I posted it on Eastern back in the day but must have deleted it and then eastern lost all the graphics for the dec thread. Anyway, here's the 500, I still suspect that the coming storm post christmas will be mostly rain but not with nearly as much confidence as earlier. The pattern on the superens mean is a pretty good one through the new year. Of course the models have been all over the place so it would be nice to see the pattern hold for a few days before going completely ga ga on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Hr 150 992 low over nc mountains Snow in miss ala. ga. Tenn. ky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Low goes right over va i95 is toasty upstairs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Hr 150 992 low over nc mountains Snow in miss ala. ga. Tenn. ky. discussion in NE thread suggests to me it is an inland runner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Hr 150 992 low over nc mountains Snow in miss ala. ga. Tenn. ky. Damn, gfs isnt as crazy as I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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