Ji Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 The 12z Gfs had temps in the 60s on dec 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 For how far the storm is away, the CMC seems to agree with the GFS fairly well...The trends are at least becoming better for some sort of wintry precipitation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 EURO ENS looks similar to GFS OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 GFS goes out to sea. LOL opps trended too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 A miller A look to it. It's a real outlier at this point, but with each model run the high to the north becomes a bit stronger. That's what I take out of this at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Early Jan storm still exactly where it was last run. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 GFS long range is amazing. Polar vortex is over canada cutter just would be nearly impossible with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I counted a legit 3 snow chances in the run. Hey, it might be overdoing the cold, but at least we have a few things to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 6Z GEFS is a thing of beauty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 The differences between the 00Z and the 06Z GFS can probably be attributed to the fact that the energy coming on shore Monday is being handled differently. Whereas the 00Z release the southern energy allowing it to deepen the trough and forming a cutoff that will eventually become the post Xmas storm the 06Z does not release it until much later. Thus we have a very flat trough that eventually slides off to the south of the area without any major storm developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Ok, who's ready to admit that the models past 5 days are really having problems? Even the ens are changing pretty big. I think this is pretty unusual. Makes for tough forecasting, but fun at model run time. Anyone, what is the Euro showing for Christmas eve? I can see something is there, but don't know exactly what. Wunder maps are too much of a pain on the phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Euro ensembles look much improved Day 9-10 with the general pattern. Big -EPO ridge and signs of split flow. Op shows this as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Ok, who's ready to admit that the models past 5 days are really having problems? Even the ens are changing pretty big. I think this is pretty unusual. Makes for tough forecasting, but fun at model run time. Anyone, what is the Euro showing for Christmas eve? I can see something is there, but don't know exactly what. Wunder maps are too much of a pain on the phone. nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 If the ECMWF were trending like the GFS was, then I might be concerned about TOO far of an east trend, but since it still basically shows a cutter without much secondary development (OP because the ensembles do), Im not really concerned about OTS....This should be our best shot at SOME wintry precipitation yet. How much and what type needs to be hammered down in future runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 The biggest takeaway for me is how a little feature that seems relatively insignificant early on can makr such a big difference downstream. These are the kinds of things I need to keep reminding myself about. I don't remember which run a few days showed it but it vanished as quick as it showed and now its back. Regardless of that detail, odds of something frozen continue to increase. Good times. Looks like I dismissed the possibility of the storm goign to our south too quickly. The 06Z sure does but then doesn't give us much snow at all. The 00Z version would give us some a pretty good ice storm. Not sure about the euro as I don't see the 2 m temps. The crux of the forecast is whether there will be enough confluence to force the low to reform on the coast and how quickly the 500 out west amplifies. The gfs says yes while the euro and its ens mean says no (at least the crude euro I see). I'd still bet on a track to our west and redevelopment to our north but must admit my confidence is shaken. All hail to Chill and Winterwxluvr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Looks like I dismissed the possibility of the storm goign to our south too quickly. The 06Z sure does but then doesn't give us much snow at all. The 00Z version would give us some a pretty good ice storm. Not sure about the euro as I don't see the 2 m temps. The crux of the forecast is whether there will be enough confluence to force the low to reform on the coast and how quickly the 500 out west amplifies. The gfs says yes while the euro and its ens mean says no (at least the crude euro I see). I'd still bet on a track to our west and redevelopment to our north but must admit my confidence is shaken. All hail to Chill and Winterwxluvr. Wes- How does the cold air set up look to you fopr this event? I am seeing -2 to -4 850 MB temps over our region for the days leading up. I see a 1040 High over minnesota which shifts over the great lakes and is at about 1035 during the event... wouldnt we want to see the placement of that High a little further to the east to set up the best blocking pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 The 6Z run is very nice in the long range if you like winter weather. An out to sea solution is just what you want to see from that model a few days out. (North trend anyone?). The New Years storm is slower to develop but would be a huge snowstorm as modeled. Now if we can get the PV to the position it was in 2010 we are in winter heaven. Exciting times ahead as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Comparing the 162 hour GFS with the 168 hour Euro (both 00z runs).. I am complete a novice at this.. but looks like they are in a good agreement given the fact that we are about a week away. Both show a strong Low Pressure system beginning to develop to our southwest with a trough digging in to Texas... negative 850 temps extrending all the way down to the Texas Coast... look great to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Looking at the individual ensemble members for the 6Z GFS shows that there is (perhaps unsurprisingly) still some enormous spread. There ARE 3 or 4 members that would give us a real pounder of a storm, and that's exciting - but the majority are split between too wound up and west/warm and suppressed and OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Wes- How does the cold air set up look to you fopr this event? I am seeing -2 to -4 850 MB temps over our region for the days leading up. I see a 1040 High over minnesota which shifts over the great lakes and is at about 1035 during the event... wouldnt we want to see the placement of that High a little further to the east to set up the best blocking pattern? No you wouldn't.. You want pressures higher over northern MI than over northern Maine. That said, we're still a weak away from the storm. I think the 06Z GFS is the least likely solution but if I were writing a piece to CWG, I wouldn't discount it completely. I'll probably do an article tomorrow about the storm. I won't have much time to look at anything today until later this afternoon as I'll be out shopping with my wife. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 No you wouldn't.. You want pressures higher over northern MI than over northern Maine. That said, we're still a weak away from the storm. I think the 06Z GFS is the least likely solution but if I were writing a piece to CWG, I wouldn't discount it completely. I'll probably do an article tomorrow about the storm. I won't have much time to look at anything today until later this afternoon as I'll be out shopping with my wife. Thank you Wes. My prediction is much money sliding from your bank account retailers with negative accumulation! Appreciate all you do here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 nothing Mitch, it's showing something. I see precip, light, and cold temps, but the phone is tough to read. Maybe someone can chime in with specifics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 The Euro gives us light rain or maybe rain/snow mix on Christmas. Surface temps are low-mid 30s and 850 temps are below freezing to start. P.S. All per Wunderground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Here's the animation of the last 4 runs of the GFS for the same point in time: 12z-0z are relatively similar. Obviously, most important changes as you progress through the runs is over the canadian maritimes. The runs have changed their mind it seems irt what used to be a ridge pushing into that area allowing an easy cut to what we are seeing now. I'll be the first one to admit I didn't see a magical 50-50ish low coming into the picture at all. I was so focused on the big cutter beforehand drifting out of sight before it could help that I paid no mind to the wave around xmas going of the coast, intensifying, and potentially setting up shop in a prime spot. So, now we have a pure cutter, some sort of hybrid, or a suppressed OTS solution. Heh, what don't we have? LOL Back to basics and looking forward to Wes' breakdown of 12z this afternoon. 6z is definitely a major outlier. Suddenly nothing strengthens at all east of the rockies? Just moves too fast? I guess it's possible but still. It just came out of nowhere. Could be a trend but I'm not really considering the option at this point. We're still dealing with a crappy pac and -pna so some sort of suppressed or true miller A seems highly unlikely. A heck of a lot has to go right irt to blocking / 50-50, timing etc so I guess it's possible but defies the odds. My guess at this point is something like this: 50% chance of straight cutter with hopes of front end sn/ip/zr 40% chance of some sort of messy hybrid with a myriad of possible outcomes 5% chance of a washed out and suppressed solution 5% chance of miller A (prob too high but who cares) Front end frozen of some sort looks pretty likely still so at the very least we get some *winter* precip. Good enough for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 So...GFS has almost a classic presentation so far....H in the right spot. Low coming up.. redevelopment starting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 This run is probably the most exciting so far. Not perfect but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 This run is probably the most exciting so far. Not perfect but... I can't stand coastal jumpers. They almost always = MA weenie ledge jumpers. But if you just look at the panels and take them for what they are...you can't just ignore the 850 jumping in NC. IF there is any way a miller B'ish system can produce, getting a jump that far south can do it. Plenty of time for the wheels to come off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 The GFS is so lol. Every run is totally different. SE bias. I think there's a growing signal for the mtns to cash in at least. But yeah, coastal transfers are messy for us and often slower than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 With the track... looks like the lack of cold air around here is going to be the dagger. Still plenty of time... and the trend is remarkable. Perhaps it threads the needle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Verbatim, it's still almost all rain for I-95, but it's really close to something much better. Shen. Valley and mountains would do well here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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