Deck Pic Posted December 19, 2012 Author Share Posted December 19, 2012 You'd think but no... I just got a look at the bufkit output. The warm layer is actually above 850mb. Temps are +3° at 800mb and -5° at 925mb. Set-up for a IP right from the start, no flakes involved. makes sense but still frozen which is better than nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 19, 2012 Author Share Posted December 19, 2012 from the other thread, but belongs here the big thing to me from watching the models is that while a storm track to our west seems like a safe bet (anyone would be nuts to bet against it at this point), we are still seeing solutions that give some minor front end frozen even with a wrapped up low over Illinois....which suggests to me that we dont need a great storm track to get some interesting hybrid before we change over...a weaker low over Ohio would probably be enough and I am not skilled enough to say whether the pattern can support that but my guess is it can... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 The idea that we could get something on the front end (especially Trixieland) has been in play for a few days now....so it is certainly worth following....certainly more fun than tracking a storm that disappears every other run...even the worst runs have hinted at some initial frozen for the favored areas...enough to have someone post a pic of some ice on their windshield before we all torch....any time there is CAD it is interesting to follow since CAD is one of the few things that trends in our favor I think you and I have similar (and reasonable) expectations about the CAD and what it could do to sensible wx at onset. Good hp in a good place and good surface flow. Not a ton of cold air around but enough. It's been looking like some sort of frozen at onset for I think 3 days now. Probably zr or even some pellets. Not sure about flakes but it doesn't really matter at this point. Would be nice for the globals to start agreeing on what the 18z gfs just did with the xmas wave but if it totally vanishes on the 0z run I won't be at all surprised. Nice wrinkle for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 19, 2012 Author Share Posted December 19, 2012 Looks like we're going from 6% to 12% now. On a serious note...this is a weenism that is actually true: CAD usually gets stronger as we get closer to an event. With that being said, I'd still bet money on this being a CHI special. the problem sometimes with this forum, and me certainly included, is that we bounce from one extreme to another...driving torchy rainstorm OR snowstorm with the 500mb low passing to our south and coastal track.....when we all know 90% of our wintry events are imperfect hybrids... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I got 4 inches from a storm that primary was in the Midwest about 5 years ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Most pronounced CAD signal of any run thus far on this storm. 0 degree line dips to the VA/NC border until 180 (at least). Yep, I saw that.....Looking better for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I got 4 inches from a storm that primary was in the Midwest about 5 years ago how's that for forecast verification: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Pretty hard to have 1030+ HP coverage from Nebraska to Maine And a low heading north at same time. Even stronger high pressure further n-nw also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 19, 2012 Author Share Posted December 19, 2012 I got 4 inches from a storm that primary was in the Midwest about 5 years ago the setup was a lot better for that one, but yes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I got 4 inches from a storm that primary was in the Midwest about 5 years ago I was gunna' post that on a very rare occasion if the storm moves far enough west of us and the 50/50 holds on long enough, we can get a 2-4" accumulation before it goes to frzr/zr/rain I remember it happening back in the late 70's when Bob Ryan was poo-pooing it and BWI got 3"+ before the change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Well, all I said was different. The heights don't deepen nearly as much next weekend and the flow is much flatter afterward. Looks like that might actually help us, keeping storms from cutting. I'm with you on the Christmas storm. Let's hope it works in our favor. This is a post I made on Sat evening (I think). The 18 z run that day made a pretty big continuity leap wrt the 500 pattern over the ne/se can. It started building that flat broad area of blocking that flattened the flow over the us. Later runs moved toward the east coast trough (this weekend) deepening and hanging around for days, allowing the flow to buckle over the us, helping the storm cut. Now the GFS has gone back to a quicker exit of the closed low over the east, forming the broad flat area in southern Canada again. IOW, right back to the solution it had that afternoon (4 days) ago). I think that's what we have to root for, that flat area over the southern tier of Canada back over to the lakes, maybe a little further south (colder here). Sensible to me, don't know it is actually sound thinking. I wish I had saved that image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I got 4 inches from a storm that primary was in the Midwest about 5 years ago We had a good event at the end of Jan 2009 where the primary was west of the mountains. Snow for about 18 hours, freezing rain for another twelve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I'm all about the Chill storm, but maybe we should be paying attention nearer in. GFS, Euro and Canadian all have a Christmas Eve flizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 We got 2" then changed over. I'll take a look at that event later. At least one thing to consider is an air mass like that was considerably colder to start. This one might be serviceable to a degree and it's nice to see CAD etc., but it's not that cold it doesn't seem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 We got 2" then changed over. I'll take a look at that event later. Very weak low that tracked to the spine of the Apps. We haven't seen that solution yet nor probably will we Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I'm all about the Chill storm, but maybe we should be paying attention nearer in. GFS, Euro and Canadian all have a Christmas Eve flizzard. What's driving it? Is is just some waa riding up a boundary? Nothing going on @ 500 during the period. Definitely all snow verbatim. Good thermal profile and thicknesses. Wouldn't that be something? Sure would set the mood for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 I got 4 inches from a storm that primary was in the Midwest about 5 years ago Models showed us changing over and weather 53 said we would stay all snow and we did. Does he still post here? He nailed that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I'm all about the Chill storm, but maybe we should be paying attention nearer in. GFS, Euro and Canadian all have a Christmas Eve flizzard. I noticed that. Also some snow showers with the front passage on Friday. Especially out this way. The CAD signature is really starting to show up on the models. If we can get the transfer to take place just a little further south we may still be in the game. But I am not as excited about the 27th-28th event as I was a couple of days ago. The next one on the 1st-2nd is very interesting though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 It is the best run we have seen...most of us still go to driving rain at the end, but there is a substantial period of snow/ice for the far western burbs before that happens It would be snow to sleet and then freezing rain. The 850 temps are a little misleading as the warm air comes in at around 800 mb. It's the most reasonable of the solutions for those who would like some winter weather as it takes the low towards the lakes and then has enough of a low near the maritimes to start forcing that low eastward. The majority of the winter weatehr would probably be sleet and freezing rain with the latter possibly being heavy enough to cause problems if the model were perfect. My guess is that the next run will back off some of the damming as it is dependent on the low near the maritimes which the models have tended to overplay some in the longer ranges recently but that's just a guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 18z GFS and GEFS show that the Xmas Eve flizzard plays a big role in getting just a bit more confluence over the northeast and shoves the Chill storm farther southeast. Bob called that several days ago and I didn't see the connection then, but he got it bang on. 18z GEFS take the center of the storm almost directly over DC (just south) and the mean has enough indication of the Xmas Eve flizzard to produce that confluence. You can see that at 168hrs below: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I looked at the euro ens mean and DT's statement about snow here makes no sense based on the 850 temps and storm track which takes the primary from Tn to Lake erie before reforming the low just to our n. Not sure where I saw someone post about his Euro ens mean comment but to me it looks pretty darn shakey. The euro ens mean also does not like the upper low that sets up the confluence for the damming on the 18Z GFS run. That doesn't mean the 18Z is wrong but to hold judgement on that feature for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 ICE ICE BABY on 00z GFS....bit weaker with the storm, more CAD....Could be a bad ice storm for shenandoah valley verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 it is as good as we have seen it....weak and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 168 hours is an ice debacle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 lol...wraparound... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 168 hours is an ice debacle Indeed. Also, it actually looks closer to a true Miller B'ish evolution this time - with the jump to the coast. Low off of OC at 180h - probably too late for us, of course, but def. enough to keep me interested going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 and massive snowstorm on Jan 2-3... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 and massive snowstorm on Jan 2-3... That one is the real deal =p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Very interesting run of the GFS. Yeh, down here, something I don't thinks want to see is the dreaded ice storm.. Still too early to get into that, but you can see that the primary low just can't go any further north due to the block over Canada. I can't say enough how important the system over the weekend will set things up. I will credit other pros on the board who spoke about that, but its really huge for how this storm will develop. Next up, let's see what the Euro shows. But if you take this run verbatum, yep, some icing issues over interior VA, Maryland and then you have the snows over Eastern PA up into portions of New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 The biggest takeaway for me is how a little feature that seems relatively insignificant early on can makr such a big difference downstream. These are the kinds of things I need to keep reminding myself about. I don't remember which run a few days showed it but it vanished as quick as it showed and now its back. Regardless of that detail, odds of something frozen continue to increase. Good times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.