Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I'd like the models to at least show some potential for a little front end action so I could write article on an actual storm rather than playing the two week outlook game. I'm expecting something in some fashion or another. 1035hp in a good spot here. Surface flow verbatim is has a bit too much easterly component. Unfortunately 850's way into PA during the same hr so ice only on the run if anything but were sill talking almost a week away. Gotta get the system before it resolved first. There's a pretty big area of hp spread out N of this storm. Maybe we get lucky with low dews and a cold column to start before it all gets thoroughly washed away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Anybody concerned about the Euros 7 day forecast, let alone its 10 day forecast should go check out its 7 day forecast 7 days ago. Good point. I believe it was showing -12C 850s for Xmas time. We'll are heading toward +12C it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I'm expecting something in some fashion or another. 1035hp in a good spot here. Surface flow verbatim is has a bit too much easterly component. Unfortunately 850's way into PA during the same hr so ice only on the run if anything but were sill talking almost a week away. Gotta get the system before it resolved first. There's a pretty big area of hp spread out N of this storm. Maybe we get lucky with low dews and a cold column to start before it all gets thoroughly washed away. We might see something frozen on the front end out here. But unfortunately its going to redevelop way too far north for any of us. We all know what redevelopment off the coast to the north means. Not good for our area that I can ever remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Good point. I believe it was showing -12C 850s for Xmas time. We'll are heading toward +12C it seems. That's the tricky part with changes in the strength of the storms on the models. The storm progged to past west of us pre-xmas was originally much stronger. Now it isn't so the mechanism to pull the cold down is weak. Now that the storm post xmas is looking tight wound and pretty strong the coldest air of the season is progged on around the 28th now. If you look at 850's in canada there is a good bit of cold nearby. 3/4s of the country is -16 or colder @ 850. Not arctic or anything but plenty cold if a setup could favor pulling it down. That's why the darn -pna is so frustrating. So close yet so far.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I'm expecting something in some fashion or another. 1035hp in a good spot here. Surface flow verbatim is has a bit too much easterly component. Unfortunately 850's way into PA during the same hr so ice only on the run if anything but were sill talking almost a week away. Gotta get the system before it resolved first. There's a pretty big area of hp spread out N of this storm. Maybe we get lucky with low dews and a cold column to start before it all gets thoroughly washed away. This is what 192 jma shows today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Good point. I believe it was showing -12C 850s for Xmas time. We'll are heading toward +12C it seems. Give it time it will change again! Anything more than a few days out is very unreliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 If this thing isnt juicy on the front end then any transfer means dryslot....we could very well end up high and dry...i will be looking for the drying trend vs cold trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Apparently the euro ensembles show the d to the t storm right where he wants it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Euro ens mean is still well east of the op. A bit warmer at 850 than last night tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Apparently the euro ensembles show the d to the t storm right where he wants it The 500 look still isn't very good. I'm guessing some of the members have coastal development looking at the contours. I suppose it might be interesting both the big ensemble means are east of the ops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 The 500 look still isn't very good. I'm guessing some of the members have coastal development looking at the contours. I suppose it might be interesting both the big ensemble means are east of the ops. Is there any access to the ind members? I sure would like to see the panels leading up to the coastal development and what features deny the storm a trip through the midwest or even the apps. Has to be some sort of 50-50 right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 19, 2012 Author Share Posted December 19, 2012 18z GFS....whoa..a lot more interesting than the 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 19, 2012 Author Share Posted December 19, 2012 18z GFS....whoa..a lot more interesting than the 12z 2-3" of snow for JYO/MRB etc and then to ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 2-3" of snow for JYO/MRB etc and then to ice Most pronounced CAD signal of any run thus far on this storm. 0 degree line dips to the VA/NC border until 180 (at least). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Any chance we are looking ahead too far? What might the Christmas eve weather be? One thing about model watching the last few days....if you don't like it, wait a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 19, 2012 Author Share Posted December 19, 2012 Most pronounced CAD signal of any run thus far on this storm. 0 degree line dips to the VA/NC border until 180 (at least). It is the best run we have seen...most of us still go to driving rain at the end, but there is a substantial period of snow/ice for the far western burbs before that happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 19, 2012 Author Share Posted December 19, 2012 Any chance we are looking ahead too far? What might the Christmas eve weather be? One thing about model watching the last few days....if you don't like it, wait a few hours. I think maybe we(especially me) have been too quick to nail this threat shut (and perhaps the earlier one too)....The difference here is there is a legit split vortex (50-50 and quebec) that hasn't been there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I think maybe we(especially me) have been too quick to nail this threat shut (and perhaps the earlier one too)....The difference here is there is a legit split vortex (50-50 and quebec) that hasn't been there 7 days is forever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I think maybe we(especially me) have been too quick to nail this threat shut (and perhaps the earlier one too)....The difference here is there is a legit split vortex (50-50 and quebec) that hasn't been there I'm with you.. 18z screams at least a significant ice storm with that banana high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 19, 2012 Author Share Posted December 19, 2012 7 days is forever I know...but the primary still goes over western Indiana....Maybe we've jumped the gun..But it is smart to temper expectations when you have a storm track so far to our west....I will take any front end frozen I can get so maybe setting the bar there is a good idea for anyone following this since that is the most likely scenario if we get wintry precip at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 19, 2012 Author Share Posted December 19, 2012 I'm with you.. 18z screams at least a significant ice storm with that banana high the run truncates when we need it not to...as soon as the model loses resolution the low jumps from Toledo Ohio to the Northern Neck......soon we will be in pre-truncation period.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I think maybe we(especially me) have been too quick to nail this threat shut (and perhaps the earlier one too)....The difference here is there is a legit split vortex (50-50 and quebec) that hasn't been there This was something I asked Wes about this morning but when I took a better look at 500 it was obvious why it couldn't jump to the coast. Now on 18z its obvious why it can. But it's a major outlier unless it's really sniffing something. The weak little wave moving offshore on xmas spawns an 850 low out in the atlantic that rotates perfectly to become a 50-50. Possible? sure. Suspect? definitely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 It is the best run we have seen...most of us still go to driving rain at the end, but there is a substantial period of snow/ice for the far western burbs before that happens Obviously this is still WAY out there, but, just for the sake of discussion isn't CAD typically under estimated at long range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 This was something I asked Wes about this morning but when I took a better look at 500 it was obvious why it couldn't jump to the coast. Now on 18z its obvious why it can. But it's a major outlier unless it's really sniffing something. The weak little wave moving offshore on xmas spawns an 850 low out in the atlantic that rotates perfectly to become a 50-50. Possible? sure. Suspect? definitely. Honestly Bob, I think anything beyond 5 days is highly suspect right now. What happens with this trough this weekend seems to be unresolved as does the system before Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 19, 2012 Author Share Posted December 19, 2012 This was something I asked Wes about this morning but when I took a better look at 500 it was obvious why it couldn't jump to the coast. Now on 18z its obvious why it can. But it's a major outlier unless it's really sniffing something. The weak little wave moving offshore on xmas spawns an 850 low out in the atlantic that rotates perfectly to become a 50-50. Possible? sure. Suspect? definitely. The idea that we could get something on the front end (especially Trixieland) has been in play for a few days now....so it is certainly worth following....certainly more fun than tracking a storm that disappears every other run...even the worst runs have hinted at some initial frozen for the favored areas...enough to have someone post a pic of some ice on their windshield before we all torch....any time there is CAD it is interesting to follow since CAD is one of the few things that trends in our favor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Question. The 12 z GFS showed a second storm form over VA (I assume that is a redevelopment). I thought redevelopments formed off the coast, over the water. I assume I'm wrong but isn't that unusual for it to form over land on the east coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Question. The 12 z GFS showed a second storm form over VA (I assume that is a redevelopment). I thought redevelopments formed off the coast, over the water. I assume I'm wrong but isn't that unusual for it to form over land on the east coast? It's more about the relation to the upper trough. There's usually a baroclinic zone near the coast which makes that a favored area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 2-3" of snow for JYO/MRB etc and then to ice You'd think but no... I just got a look at the bufkit output. The warm layer is actually above 850mb. Temps are +3° at 800mb and -5° at 925mb. Set-up for a IP right from the start, no flakes involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Honestly Bob, I think anything beyond 5 days is highly suspect right now. What happens with this trough this weekend seems to be unresolved as does the system before Christmas. I think what I find the most fascinating about this particular run is what happens to the little wave on xmas. I've mentioned many times that the 50-50 is the only missing ingredient to making this storm have a much better chance at being more wintry. And now all of a sudden...bam... this seemingly harmless feature does some magic. Obviously, it's highly suspect but it does show how things are possible in a reasonable way. Slow the loop down and watch what happens in the atlantic after the xmas wave moves off the coast: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F19%2F2012+18UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=8+Day+Loop&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 the run truncates when we need it not to...as soon as the model loses resolution the low jumps from Toledo Ohio to the Northern Neck......soon we will be in pre-truncation period.... Looks like we're going from 6% to 12% now. On a serious note...this is a weenism that is actually true: CAD usually gets stronger as we get closer to an event. With that being said, I'd still bet money on this being a CHI special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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