WxUSAF Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 0z Euro and Euro ensembles show much more consistency with their previous runs, but both still shifted east quite a bit relative to yesterday's 12z and 0z runs. Not sure what to think of the 0z/6z GFS...if you ignore that weak wave out ahead of the main DT/Chill storm, then it's not too different from the Euro at the surface, but WAY different out west at 500mb. All I'd say at this point is that all options appear on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 can you post the mean?? please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 P.S. 6z GFS ensemble mean is WAY east of yesterday's runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Looks like theres a good bit of spread on the 6z ensemble members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 0z ggem with a christmas present for the mid atl. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Curious lack of discussion in here this morning. Big differences in the past 18 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Curious lack of discussion in here this morning. Big differences in the past 18 hours. Low still tracks to our west and without confluence that still seems to be the best bet and the one that the ens mean 500 from the GEFS would argue for.I guess if the CMC is right we might do better. I'm still riding that the low goes to our west and think that is by far the most likely scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 That weak wave that models are now showing is VERY important to the big one. It lowers heights ahead of the storm and could force it east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Low still tracks to our west and without confluence that still seems to be the best bet and the one that the ens mean 500 from the GEFS would argue for.I guess if the CMC is right we might do better. I'm still riding that the low goes to our west and think that is by far the most likely scenario. Are you surprised by the shift east? Do you think there is room for more shifting if the Xmas wave comes to fruition? When I see the big high in mid-west I can see a push se to a point but the lack of a strong 50/50 in the ideal location seems to argue that it can't shift that much further east if everything is modeled correctly. Just trying to understand why the shift east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Low still tracks to our west and without confluence that still seems to be the best bet and the one that the ens mean 500 from the GEFS would argue for.I guess if the CMC is right we might do better. I'm still riding that the low goes to our west and think that is by far the most likely scenario. Does the Euro also show the little wave that gives DCA front end dusting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Low still tracks to our west and without confluence that still seems to be the best bet and the one that the ens mean 500 from the GEFS would argue for.I guess if the CMC is right we might do better. I'm still riding that the low goes to our west and think that is by far the most likely scenario. I have a question Wes. I haven't looked at much since dinnertime last night but the east trend is logical based on 500 at first glance this morning. There's a pretty strong block showing up just east of hudson bay. I'm a little surprised the latest solutions don't jump the coast to the baroclonic zone at some point. Not saying that would be good for us because it would be too late but someone up north would like to see that. What keeps the ull and 850 intact over land through the whole runs? As I was clicking the panels I kept expecting the primary to fizzle and something pop along the coast. The storm is moving right into a fairly strong area of hp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Does the Euro also show the little wave that gives DCA front end dusting? I don't see the Euro in enough resolution to be able to answer that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I have a question Wes. I haven't looked at much since dinnertime last night but the east trend is logical based on 500 at first glance this morning. There's a pretty strong block showing up just east of hudson bay. I'm a little surprised the latest solutions don't jump the coast to the baroclonic zone at some point. Not saying that would be good for us because it would be too late but someone up north would like to see that. What keeps the ull and 850 intact over land through the whole runs? As I was clicking the panels I kept expecting the primary to fizzle and something pop along the coast. The storm is moving right into a fairly strong area of hp. Bob, the thing that would force our low farther east is not what is near hudson bay but what is over the northeast and maritimes. We need a 500 low near enough to the maritimes to keep the 500 flow confluent over the northeast. What I mean but that is we need the lines on the map to get closer together as you move west to east. That is what keeps pressures high to our north and forces the flow to the south. Instead, there is ridging at 500 across the east in front of the boxer day storm. That argues for us warming and for a more northern track before any reformation on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Bob, the thing that would force our low farther east is not what is near hudson bay but what is over the northeast and maritimes. We need a 500 low near enough to the maritimes to keep the 500 flow confluent over the northeast. What I mean but that is we need the lines on the map to get closer together as you move west to east. That is what keeps pressures high to our north and forces the flow to the south. Instead, there is ridging at 500 across the east in front of the boxer day storm. That argues for us warming and for a more northern track before any reformation on the coast. I think I worded my post wrong but after looping ull maps it's very clear why there is no jump to the coast. And we're still a long ways off from any type of track south or east of us. But I didn't really expect that to change either. I saw the chatter about last nights runs and it intrigued me. However, the wave of lp prior to the storm isn't resolved yet either. It's hangs in the 50-50 location for a little bit. Obviously it;s. out of the picture well before it can help but it's worth taking note and seeing if future runs do anything different with it. I suppose expectations set yesterday are the same. Best case is a little something on the front before rain. I don't care if any model shows wraparound. We all know how that works around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 19, 2012 Author Share Posted December 19, 2012 Does the Euro also show the little wave that gives DCA front end dusting? no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 no if he was asking about the xmas morning wave, then yes, it does show it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 if he was asking about the xmas morning wave, then yes, it does show it. Yes, that what I was talking about. Clearly, lowering of the heights by the first wave helps steer the second wave, which is why I asked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 if he was asking about the xmas morning wave, then yes, it does show it. it does show it but there's no accum verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 GFS is loltastic. Compare 0z 132 to 12z 120. Oy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Looks like another solution coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 GFS is loltastic. Compare 0z 132 to 12z 120. Oy It's been doing this for the last 5 days. Quite entertaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Interesting high pressure placement at 138. Just north of the UP of MI and heading SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 19, 2012 Author Share Posted December 19, 2012 bummer...crappy run 992mb low over STL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 19, 2012 Author Share Posted December 19, 2012 Nice CAD though for far western burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Just trying to learn but does this show the banana high? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Nice CAD though for far western burbs True but a more wound up farther to the west solution than the previous run. The one thing that has been consistent no matter how much the runs differ is that the low ends up going to our north and west before reforming off or along the coast with any significant development of the secondary to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 True but a more wound up farther to the west solution than the previous run. The one thing that has been consistent no matter how much the runs differ is that the low ends up going to our north and west before reforming off or along the coast with any significant development of the secondary to our north. There's a nice High in the right spot, but the damn storm keeps getting further west and we die a WAA death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Pretty hard to get a consistent forecast with upper air patterns that differ so much. It is still a week out, so I guess we'll be waiting a few days for a more certain outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Pretty hard to get a consistent forecast with upper air patterns that differ so much. It is still a week out, so I guess we'll be waiting a few days for a more certain outcome. The important thing I take away from this is there's more of a chance that we could get something frozen next week, whereas before we were at an almost nil chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 19, 2012 Author Share Posted December 19, 2012 True but a more wound up farther to the west solution than the previous run. The one thing that has been consistent no matter how much the runs differ is that the low ends up going to our north and west before reforming off or along the coast with any significant development of the secondary to our north. GFS has our overnight MIN that Wednesday night/Thu morning in the low to mid 60s...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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