mitchnick Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Is anybody else buying the NAM and its "backend stuff" for Friday morning? Im sure Ill hear someone explain to me why its not meteorologically sound, but the 12z GFS sort of showed it too...I guess its not out of the question to see a burst of snow Fri morning, of course not much in the way of anything actually laying though. if you look at the surface temps, I think only the luckiest of us east of the mts would see wet snowflakes since the precip pulls out too fast iow, not in this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 if you look at the surface temps, I think only the luckiest of us east of the mts would see wet snowflakes since the precip pulls out too fast iow, not in this winter I'll bet some will see some flurries/showers with this . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 if you look at the surface temps, I think only the luckiest of us east of the mts would see wet snowflakes since the precip pulls out too fast iow, not in this winter Agree. Hr. 57 has 850s <0c, but her is the corresponding surface reflection. After this precip is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Now the 27th event is looking poorer so onto the next one. There were two other winters that I remember for sure where we were chasing the 10-15 days away until mid Jan. and then we realized it was not to be. I thought KA was utterly out of it when he went big + for all three months. We are in trouble and now need to get out of trouble first before we can even have a chance to get into something good. Its not even winter yet. Wow. Did JI change his user name? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rakat Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 In my area, I think the wind and the cold will be the main focus. Gust of up to 50mph is possible. Combine that with falling temperatures. It will feel like the single digits by Friday morning. That's not to say we won't see any snow. Perhaps an inch or two. But certainly not as much as the mountains. They always get the most snow. The Apps have winter storm watches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Looks like a decent thump for the WV ski areas over the weekend. Good time for a road trip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 The end of the GFS run is really active. Alot of storms and much better pattern on the west coast. Maybe early next year will be the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I have no idea what the GFS is doing, but its entire run post Fridays storm is completely different than the previous few runs....Pretty odd if you ask me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Major changes with the 27th storm...Its just 1 run, but if it was 3rd and 20...its 3rd and 10 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I have no idea what the GFS is doing, but its entire run post Fridays storm is completely different than the previous few runs....Pretty odd if you ask me Its a complete 180 from prior runs. Its an open wave w/ very little precip. From a historic storm to nothing in 1 run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Its a complete 180 from prior runs. Its an open wave w/ very little precip. From a historic storm to nothing in 1 run. Have you seen the entire run? Its a freaking BOMB over NY State Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 the GFS has a totally different solution that gives us a rainstorm on christmas day and a rainstorm 2 days later! total change in everything from 18z?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 GFS is trending towards a noreaster....its already shifted 400 miles east....low from Illinois to Low over Virginia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Have you seen the entire run? Its a freaking BOMB over NY State Yeah I see it now. Huge bomb with a different evolution from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Yeah I see it now. Huge bomb with a different evolution from 12z. its a monstorus hit for Garrett County...State College...will only trend east with time. Snowstorm for us from this is now likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 GFS is trending towards a noreaster....its already shifted 400 miles east....low from Illinois to Low over Virginia Come on dude. By now you know how this works. The GFS is unstable. It shifted widely from 6 hours ago. 6z will go right back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 its a monstorus hit for Garrett County...State College...will only trend east with time. Snowstorm for us from this is now likely Trend will be our friend no analysis.. banter thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 no analysis.. banter thread whats their to analyze. Its doing what storms do now when there is a block Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I have no idea what the GFS is doing, but its entire run post Fridays storm is completely different than the previous few runs....Pretty odd if you ask me neither does the GFS, so it'll change to something different in 6 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 The whole storm evolution is 12-18 hours quicker than 12z fwiw. More importantly the fact it takes longer to close off at 500mb is why it is further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 A 977mb low over roanoke is not likely to materialize. Make that a 992 MB low that's lest aplified and that is likely on the coast. Definitely puts us in the ballgame. The models were hinting at the first wave previously, but this run clearly differentiates the two waves. Once we are inside 5 days we can rule out some possible tracks for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Don S. still feels great about things starting Jan 1. As far as 12/21 that 1044 high catches my eye but needs to be about 700 miles further ese. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 JB thinks GFS is too wound up and will verifiy more east than the 00z models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 neither does the GFS, so it'll change to something different in 6 hrs I believe the 12z Euro was also quite different from its 0z run. The models are struggling and likely will not show any consistency for a few days....this is a day 8 event. Lets see if there actually is a trend to move this storm further east..right now we just have yet another solution, and probably not the correct one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Well, that should get the weenies putting the blanket over the bus engine. But at least half the ens members don't agree with the op.. plus its ONE run. Conclusion = meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Euro says white Christmas before change over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 can you illustrate what your talking about?? thanks There is a little warm air advection snows Christmas even and morning over parts of VA-- out in front the main storm like .1 to .2 of snow ending as ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 The 06Z GFS likes the 00Z idea and also shows a Xmas day storm with a follow up storm 2 days later. 2'nd storm is a little farther west and runs up the Appalachians. Possibly a little front end snow as well as maybe some back end snow with the setup being shown especially north and west of the cities for the 2nd storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 The 06Z GFS likes the 00Z idea and also shows a Xmas day storm with a follow up storm 2 days later. 2'nd storm is a little farther west and runs up the Appalachians. Possibly a little front end snow as well as maybe some back end snow with the setup being shown especially north and west of the cities for the 2nd storm. It's possible given what the models shows on this one run. The placement of the high to the north will be something to watch....if things don't swing wildly from here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Euro says white Christmas before change over Do you think an apps runner that strong for 2nd storm seems likely? Just curious because it seems what 00Z and 6Z show would be an epic apps runner. 12z will be the ticket to solving this mystery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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