Ian Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Who's under center? Peyton Manning or Mark Sanchez? Impossibility or not, it would be a meteorological miracle for this to be any type of significant snow even. Yea, things can change but I just don't see anything that can push this thing south and east. Nice coastal on Jan 2nd... i called that one last night.. moderate hallucinations and wishcasting for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 true...plus DT just used the word "meteorological impossibility" so maybe we shouldn't punt yet......3rd and 20? and the equations that describe the atmosphere don't produce "meteorologically impossible" solutions...it's not in their nature... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 i called that one last night.. moderate hallucinations and wishcasting for all Ian storm better be a lot better than the chill storm. I'm counting on you for this one. Let me know when I need to trap a yard bunny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Great 30 day animation of 500 anoms in the NH. It makes it simple to see why were having a big run of storms tracking west of us right now. As some have already pointed out it looks like if we can get that totally unfavorable area of high heights in the pac to put the squeeze on the area of low heights in ak some big changes can happen downstream. Still need blocking but I think we'd be fine in that department. There's a heck of a lot of cold air up in the AK region. Put the squeeze on that and send it se and we can get pretty chilly and stay that way. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/z500_nh_anim.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 GFS ensembles develop a strong -EPO ridge by 264-276hrs. Handling of the DT/Chill storm is...odd...on the models, which suggests some spread in the individual members. Nothing like the Op's closed low bomb...ensembles are much more progressive. Actually brings the 850mb 0C back south of DC by 204 and stays south of us for 216...which probably means some outlying members are biasing the mean. Edit: Individual members are up on ewall now. A couple are very progressive/weak solutions and 1 is a far southern Miller-B (which looks quite nice for us), and those are probably biasing the mean regarding the 850 0C line. Most are reasonably similar to the Op with a big closed low cutter, although the Op is one of the slowest solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 true...plus DT just used the word "meteorological impossibility" so maybe we shouldn't punt yet......3rd and 20? I think third and 50 with Rex at the helm is more like it. Maybe we see freezing rain at the onset but the pattern for the DT/Chill storm just isn't that good. Just after the 1st, the pattern with the ridge poking up over Ak is more interesting on the ens mean from last night. Maybe we can eek out something then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 gfs is much slower. here is the 12z hr. 180 gfs ggem and 0z euro hr 192 same time frame 0Z 26th model labels are in the bottom eft hand corner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Midlo, despite the timing difference, don't they all take the low towards the Great Lakes? If so, I'd argue that the timing of that short wave is not that critical to what we get except maybe on the front end where we might see a brief period of frozen with the faster timing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Midlo, despite the timing difference, don't they all take the low towards the Great Lakes? If so, I'd argue that the timing of that short wave is not that critical to what we get except maybe on the front end where we might see a brief period of frozen with the faster timing.. yea pretty much--- 12z euro is in downtown chicago lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Euro is obviously a poor track, but it's definitely recognizing some significant CAD. On Wunderground at 180hrs, the 0C surface temp contour is through the MD border counties, ~20-30mi south of the Mason-Dixon and it's precipitating (sleet or fzra). At 174hrs it's at DC and points southward. So, just need precip to arrive a bit earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 JMA shows the most realistic solution. Would imply a winter storm/ice storm. 192 has low over 993 low in Alabama which good CAD signature and tons of precip in our area. 850 line is in northern Maryland but probably cold enough at surface for ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Euro is obviously a poor track, but it's definitely recognizing some significant CAD. On Wunderground at 180hrs, the 0C surface temp contour is through the MD border counties, ~20-30mi south of the Mason-Dixon and it's precipitating (sleet or fzra). At 174hrs it's at DC and points southward. So, just need precip to arrive a bit earlier. When I was looking through the gfs surface wind and temp maps I noticed it at well. It's something worth mentioning and keeping an eye on. It's not a cliche to say CAD overperforms compared to the globals. I think the NAM is probably the only model that does a pretty good job with the finer details. And were a long long time away from the NAM telling us what to expect. The finer details of the departing low ne of NE and the hp sandwiched in between won't be resolved for a long time. Could trend either way. If we get .25" of ice can I claim victory? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 The euro ens mean has taken a step back in my view. It has a clear look of a low that goes well to our west and then reforms north. To me even if you get a very brief period of snow/sleet to freezing rain it is hardly what I call as snow storm. I guess all our definitions differ. To answer someone's question posed in the banter thread. I would be totally stunned if this ended up being a storm that reformed or tracked to our south even at this time range. The models are now in pretty good agreement on a strong shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 The euro ens mean has taken a step back in my view. It has a clear look of a low that goes well to our west and then reforms north. To me even if you get a very brief period of snow/sleet to freezing rain it is hardly what I call as snow storm. I guess all our definitions differ. To answer someone's question posed in the banter thread. I would be totally stunned if this ended up being a storm that reformed or tracked to our south even at this time range. The models are now in pretty good agreement on a strong shortwave. Im not expecting or predicting snow....but 7 days out the way runs change...seems hard to have confidence doesnt it....play the climo/persistence/its DC card on this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Im not expecting or predicting snow....but 7 days out the way runs change...seems hard to have confidence doesnt it....play the climo/persistence/its DC card on this one? I think the pattern also argues strongly for such a track. Lots of reasons, I would be stunned and I don't say that very often as I'm used to seeing models fail. To get a DT or JB storm you'd need the low to shift way, way east in a negative PNA pattern but of course I've been wrong before....just ask Ji. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 I think the pattern also argues strongly for such a track. Lots of reasons, I would be stunned and I don't say that very often as I'm used to seeing models fail. To get a DT or JB storm you'd need the low to shift way, way east in a negative PNA pattern but of course I've been wrong before....just ask Ji. Your perfect record so far this season will continue imo. What 500 looks like now on the progs compared to when I was enamoured by the look is quite different. I reduced to hoping for enough leftover and moldy stale cold air hanging in to have some wintry precip regardless of how short the duration is. This is the 500 anoms for the period of the 8th-15th. Pretty much sums it up. We have a blue goal post to the west and a green one to the east. Unless the kicker has a really really bad leg...it's going to be 3 points for Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 It all comes down to the block in Canada. All the guidance right now, save I guess the JMA and a couple ensemble members (and maybe the Canadian), weaken the block enough for the storm to cut. That block has to hang on really strongly for the storm to be forced underneath. Got to have confluence to our north and keep the 500mb flow easterly instead of southerly/southeasterly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 18z GFS certainly a bit more interesting for the northern and western burbs in terms of front end snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Now the 27th event is looking poorer so onto the next one. There were two other winters that I remember for sure where we were chasing the 10-15 days away until mid Jan. and then we realized it was not to be. I thought KA was utterly out of it when he went big + for all three months. We are in trouble and now need to get out of trouble first before we can even have a chance to get into something good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 18z GFS certainly a bit more interesting for the northern and western burbs in terms of front end snow That and/or sleet and freezing rain. There certainly is damming as the precip comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 That and/or sleet and freezing rain. There certainly is damming as the precip comes in. good trend on 18z run tonight. With 8 more days to trend favorably, this might turn out to be the blizzard of 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Flakes on Saturday morning after the rain?.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Still big swings on upper air features in the GFS. As Yogi would say, it ain't over til it's over, especially with a week to go. I think my Euro 8 day snow total this year is about 56 inches. Just once the trend can work for us. I'm like several others here. Something on the front end, we can go from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Flakes on Saturday morning after the rain?.... Don't know about flakes, but that front is coming through Thur night and I'll bet nobody has trouble recognizing it when it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Nice CAD signal. We know our climo here. The surface freezing line would have a much bigger bend down the blue ridge if this was the nam @ 48. 850's way borderline and 540 thickness line up in pa so I have to assume warm layer sandwiched between 850 and surface. Sleet/ice verbatim. Pretty solid NE surface flow and it's pretty chilly up north. Not a bad subtle improvement if all we're looking for is something frozen. 186 & 192 10m wind and 2m temp panels: Pac has some favorable changes too down the road. 12z euro/gfs not looking terrible either. Ridge pushing into CA. Also a couple gulf lows so things remain active it appears. Big -pna definitely looking to relax. How much and how favorable? Who knows.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Eight days out...there is a lot to be resolved. How often is any long range model correct on a storm that is a week+ away? There is a fast flow and a developing block, the position and strength of which is unknown at this point and quite possibly underdone on the models at this range. Look at HPC EFD and their day 7 surface prog...they seem to favor this storm sliding underneath a strong high latitude block. By Friday we should have a much better idea. Way too early to give up on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Close enough to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=7&fcolor=wbg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Eight days out...there is a lot to be resolved. How often is any long range model correct on a storm that is a week+ away? There is a fast flow and a developing block, the position and strength of which is unknown at this point and quite possibly underdone on the models at this range. Look at HPC EFD and their day 7 surface prog...they seem to favor this storm sliding underneath a strong high latitude block. By Friday we should have a much better idea. Way too early to give up on this one. We're all going to keep an eye on it but as Wes has pointed out numerous times, getting a track south in a -pna regime (and it's a pretty strong -pna right now) takes just about every other possible ingredient to go right. So, it's not *impossible* to have a decent event but it sure would be nice to have some sort of 50-50 in place or even some sort of transient ridge in the wake as the system enters the middle of the country. I don't think the block can do it by itself unless it's made of kevlar and concrete. Persistent trough out west is awful tough to overcome. We all knew that the current couple of systems would cut west. It was all about the progged pattern following #3. That hasn't been looking good as we get closer. But there are some things that can change. Speed and strength of the system are definitely not resolved yet. Nobody has tossed in the towel yet but the last couple of days of model runs haven't shown much promise. But then again, the gfs is apparently showing a meteorological impossibility so we have that going for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Is anybody else buying the NAM and its "backend stuff" for Friday morning? Im sure Ill hear someone explain to me why its not meteorologically sound, but the 12z GFS sort of showed it too...I guess its not out of the question to see a burst of snow Fri morning, of course not much in the way of anything actually laying though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.