showmethesnow Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Generally speaking, when it's DT vs. all the models, it's a good idea to go with all the models - hehe. I have seen him nail pattern recognition in the long range just as I have seen him fail miserably. Never kept track of his record of successes vs. failures so I will keep an open mind on the possibilities with this storm. Anything to keep hope alive to see some snow for the holidays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Euro ensembles still have about the best look of any of the guidance. 0z ensembles also seem to jump the low to the coast farther south than yesterday's runs. So, maybe that's a good trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Euro ensembles still have about the best look of any of the guidance. 0z ensembles also seem to jump the low to the coast farther south than yesterday's runs. So, maybe that's a good trend? The primary is way north on the ens mean and isn't the development inland with an inland track into New England. That's usually not a good combo as you usually end up with a warm layer above 850mb. Might get some sleet or ice at the onset but overall, I don't think it offers much. I'm not impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 not really...there is a ridge over the east extending up to the lakes...that is a pretty bad setup in advance of a storm... I agree as I think the pattern favors a lakes cutter or OH valley storm tracking to our north before trying to reform somewhere east of the mountains. The rex block gets crushed by the big vortex near Baffin Island and the low near the Maritimes moves eastward enuf to allow plenty of room for the more westward track. The ensembles from last night look worse to me than yesterdays when there was more of split as to what would happen. Now look at how the majority of the GEFS are tracking the storm. I like my thoughts from yesterday's CWG piece but think the odds are even stronger for rain rather than snow and am glad I didn't by into a super cold after the boxer day storm gets east of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 The primary is way north on the ens mean and isn't the development inland with an inland track into New England. That's usually not a good combo as you usually end up with a warm layer above 850mb. Might get some sleet or ice at the onset but overall, I don't think it offers much. I'm not impressed. looks like the primary low goes to WV/Ohio border and redevelops at VA capes on Euro ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 I don't see anything stopping a cutter on the runs. The 6z gfs closes off way west and a negl tilted trough. Rule of thumb on that says not a chance. It's an awful strong solution too with early development. Getting close to throwing in the towel at any shot of this thing going underneath us. Snow to rain is best case scenario. Gotta pray for the cold. If the cold shot over xmas is weak then we're in a lot of trouble for getting some wintry precip out of this. Here's the panels that had me intrigued back 6 days ago: If you want to depress yourself, go ahead and run through some progged 500 anomaly panels and see how much different they are than the ones above. The trough in the west is dominant and doesn't want to move out just yet. The look on the GFS was great. But that type of ridging in the west is all but non-existent now. Not even showing up in some sort of transient form. Unless something drastically changes in that department we are going to continue to see a nw storm track. Guidance is finally starting to diverge on the PNA down the road. All ens members had it pegged negative for quite a long time but now some are starting to see things a little differently. Stating the obvious but getting the pna out of the basement is a major step in moving towards a more productive pattern. We'll see what the globals say over the next 5 days or so but as it stand right now it looks like a front end thump before rain or all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 I don't see anything stopping a cutter on the runs. The 6z gfs closes off way west and a negl tilted trough. Rule of thumb on that says not a chance. It's an awful strong solution too with early development. Getting close to throwing in the towel at any shot of this thing going underneath us. Snow to rain is best case scenario. Gotta pray for the cold. If the cold shot over xmas is weak then we're in a lot of trouble for getting some wintry precip out of this. Here's the panels that had me intrigued back 6 days ago: If you want to depress yourself, go ahead and run through some progged 500 anomaly panels and see how much different they are than the ones above. The trough in the west is dominant and doesn't want to move out just yet. The look on the GFS was great. But that type of ridging in the west is all but non-existent now. Not even showing up in some sort of transient form. Unless something drastically changes in that department we are going to continue to see a nw storm track. Guidance is finally starting to diverge on the PNA down the road. All ens members had it pegged negative for quite a long time but now some are starting to see things a little differently. Stating the obvious but getting the pna out of the basement is a major step in moving towards a more productive pattern. We'll see what the globals say over the next 5 days or so but as it stand right now it looks like a front end thump before rain or all rain. That's what I've been saying. The models forecasting of the upper air pattern is so inconsistent and undependable that forecasting based on them is a shot in the dark. Those PNA progs are modeled too. I don't see any reason to trust the pattern being modeled much more than about 5 days in advance. The up side to the uncertainty is that even when it looks awful, there's always the chance it won't turn out that way. Your storm isn't dead yet, but it's getting close. Combine that with the fact that the weather seems stuck in this pattern and you've got a much better chance of this thing cutting big time. Who knows, maybe this storm disrupts this pattern once and for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 That's what I've been saying. The models forecasting of the upper air pattern is so inconsistent and undependable that forecasting based on them is a shot in the dark. Those PNA progs are modeled too. I don't see any reason to trust the pattern being modeled much more than about 5 days in advance. The up side to the uncertainty is that even when it looks awful, there's always the chance it won't turn out that way. Your storm isn't dead yet, but it's getting close. Combine that with the fact that the weather seems stuck in this pattern and you've got a much better chance of this thing cutting big time. Who knows, maybe this storm disrupts this pattern once and for all. Yea, when I first got interested in the pattern I thought it was more likely to favor a better storm track. Wes was the typical rockstar in explaining that my optimism was probably cranked up too much. But that's ok. My reasoning was sound and I've never proclaimed to have much skill in the lr. This has been and continues to be a really fun exercise in pattern recognition. I do know this. We can TOTALLY put to bed the discussion on atmospheric memory. Noreasters in the fall obviously do not = noreasters down the road. The only memory the atmosphere seems to have is that it almost never forgets that it hates snow weenies in the MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Bob, nice point on the PNA. Also seems many of the models are taking the EPO negative (or at least neutral) by Christmas or just after. If we get an -EPO in concert with our apparently persisent -AO/-NAO combination, that initiates some big cold air dumps into Canada and improves our chances, even if the PNA stays stubbornly negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Bob, nice point on the PNA. Also seems many of the models are taking the EPO negative (or at least neutral) by Christmas or just after. If we get an -EPO in concert with our apparently persisent -AO/-NAO combination, that initiates some big cold air dumps into Canada and improves our chances, even if the PNA stays stubbornly negative. I think the ridge poking into Ak would be a really nice change for the better but that we probalby have to wait until towards the 1st of the year or slightly after before we really reap any benefits. The lower than normal heights over the southwest on the gefs dec 31 ens mean and ridge poking into AK are a combo that favors either miller be type events or sheered waa events. Neither usually produce a major snowstorm for us but the latter can be all snow events if the timing is right. It is certainly better than the pattern we've been battling so far this month. I'm still not quite ready to pull the trigger on us going into a snowier than normal pattern. I'll wait until the AK signal is a little stronger and longer lasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Yea, when I first got interested in the pattern I thought it was more likely to favor a better storm track. Wes was the typical rockstar in explaining that my optimism was probably cranked up too much. But that's ok. My reasoning was sound and I've never proclaimed to have much skill in the lr. This has been and continues to be a really fun exercise in pattern recognition. I do know this. We can TOTALLY put to bed the discussion on atmospheric memory. Noreasters in the fall obviously do not = noreasters down the road. The only memory the atmosphere seems to have is that it almost never forgets that it hates snow weenies in the MA. There's always the possibility that we see a total flip right in the heart of the best winter months. The PNA can't stay negative forever. After your post, I looked at the 500 charts from yesterdays 12z gfs vs. today's 6z at 144, 168, 192, and 240 (all yesterdays times). The differences are really remarkable, especially in the Alaska, NW Canada areas. Tough for folks to forecast I suppose. Keep your head up Bob. You are going to be right about a storm next week. That's a pretty good call, IMO. It's just not clear yet what it will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 There's always the possibility that we see a total flip right in the heart of the best winter months. The PNA can't stay negative forever. After your post, I looked at the 500 charts from yesterdays 12z gfs vs. today's 6z at 144, 168, 192, and 240 (all yesterdays times). The differences are really remarkable, especially in the Alaska, NW Canada areas. Tough for folks to forecast I suppose. Keep your head up Bob. You are going to be right about a storm next week. That's a pretty good call, IMO. It's just not clear yet what it will be. I've felt that the signal was pretty good for a decent storm all along. Colorado is undergoing a much needed storm cycle right now. Part of my hunch was my experience from living there. Storm cycles can last a couple days or even a couple weeks but they almost always end the same way. A really big and strong ridge of hp and bluebird skies for a while as the precip and energy shifts east. I remember talking to my friends back here a lot and I would brag about all the snow I'm getting while they are warm. But it seemed that more often than not the EC got their snow during our bluebird days. I didn't really have much knowledge back then to understand the whys but it makes total sense now. I was probably banking a bit too much on the ridge in the intermountain west this go around but you can see my logic here. I think I've been pretty good in this thread and haven't been a blind weenie. I always said there's plenty of problems to deal with and we could easily continue to have a stormtrack to the west. There are plenty of days for things to get better for the window after xmas but it's awful tough to ignore the latest developments and the fact that the west track has been very persistent. Wes has been outstanding in this thread. Let's just get the darn cold in here already. Last time I checked we've never gotten snow with highs in the 50-60's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Anyone off-hand know the record temp departure for any the official stations in the region? We've got to be threatening the record. It's incredible (or wretched depending on your climate preference).... day after day after day of +10s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Even Wes' hope is flagging. He usually tells us we have a chance beginning Today+10 days. Now he seems to be talking about January 1 (Today + 14 days). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 I don't see anything stopping a cutter on the runs. The 6z gfs closes off way west and a negl tilted trough. Rule of thumb on that says not a chance. It's an awful strong solution too with early development. Getting close to throwing in the towel at any shot of this thing going underneath us. Snow to rain is best case scenario. Gotta pray for the cold. If the cold shot over xmas is weak then we're in a lot of trouble for getting some wintry precip out of this. yeah...still 7 days away, but the ridge in the east is neg tilted and way too strong and there is no real reason to see it get broken down by the trough behind it...as you and Wes and others have said if we had an intransigent 50-50 low the storm might work....but all we have is some weak troughiness over the maritimes/new england....and we never really pop a ridge in the PNA region...there are too many things wrong with the storm right now...maybe it will get resolved, but more likely it won't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Even Wes' hope is flagging. He usually tells us we have a chance beginning Today+10 days. Now he seems to be talking about January 1 (Today + 14 days). I think I've been pretty negative on the pattern overall for the entire month even in the two week range though in the CWG articles I try to temper my discussions some as past day 10, there is not that much skill. I've never much liked the snow potential of the Chill storm except maybe a little wintery weather at the front end of the storm. Now that is looking less likely. It has looked a cutter to me all along but I'm not good enough to say that unequivocally on a CWG article. Bob, thanks for the complement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 yeah...still 7 days away, but the ridge in the east is neg tilted and way too strong and there is no real reason to see it get broken down by the trough behind it...as you and Wes and others have said if we had an intransigent 50-50 low the storm might work....but all we have is some weak troughiness over the maritimes/new england....and we never really pop a ridge in the PNA region...there are too many things wrong with the storm right now...maybe it will get resolved, but more likely it won't The progged setup at 500 isn't nearly as nice as what I was keying on a week ago. That goes a long way towards a notsogreat solution at the surface. After things started looking less promising upstairs I started keying on exactly why you are saying irt some sort of 50-50ish setup. But flow is fast and the parts moving in it are cruising so hoping for a 50-50 from a previous cutter to magically make the world ok again is far from a high probability event. Again, everybody has been really good in this thread setting proper expectations as things evolved. It's been a good learning process for me even if things don't work out as initially hoped. Maybe we can get lucky with the the pre-xmas cutter pulling down enough cold air and move away slow enough that we can see some frontside flakes. Anything wintry for goodness sakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 I think I've been pretty negative on the pattern overall for the entire month even in the two week range though in the CWG articles I try to temper my discussions some as past day 10, there is not that much skill. I've never much liked the snow potential of the Chill storm except maybe a little wintery weather at the front end of the storm. Now that is looking less likely. It has looked a cutter to me all along but I'm not good enough to say that unequivocally on a CWG article. Bob, thanks for the complement. Wes, you just have a great deal of knowledge and experience. I wouldn't exactly call it being negative. At least not irt emotions. You are just calling a spade a spade. You've earned many complements this month. I'm still waiting for you to be wrong this late fall - winter period. Quite a track record so far. Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Wes, you just have a great deal of knowledge and experience. I wouldn't exactly call it being negative. At least not irt emotions. You are just calling a spade a spade. You've earned many complements this month. I'm still waiting for you to be wrong this late fall - winter period. Quite a track record so far. Impressive. I'm still waiting for him to be wrong EVER. Wes is my North Star with regard to our snow chances. I don't know that I have ever heard him be negative/skeptical on something and had it work out for us. When he honks, I get interested - until then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 12z GFS is a predictable disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 12z GFS is a predictable disaster How much would you pay for a block/50/50 at 192+? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 How much would you pay for a block/50/50 at 192+? it doesnt really matter..the setup isn't that great anyway....there is a 988mb low over STL...we aren't even really that close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 How much would you pay for a block/50/50 at 192+? I would sacrifice a yard bunny. A weaker solution and later development would help too. At least irt to a chance at something on the front before thermal profiles go to he!!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 2m temps and surface flow show there is still hope for something wintry. We're below freezing and winds crank around from nw-ne...just until the precip arrives then it warms up quick and winds veer e-ese. But it's at least worth pointing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 2m temps and surface flow show there is still hope for something wintry. We're below freezing and winds crank around from nw-ne...just until the precip arrives then it warms up quick and winds veer e-ese. But it's at least worth pointing out. it looks like there is a chance for some initial freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 it looks like there is a chance for some initial freezing rain Hey, frozen rain > liquid rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 Hey, frozen rain > liquid rain true...plus DT just used the word "meteorological impossibility" so maybe we shouldn't punt yet......3rd and 20? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 true...plus DT just used the word "meteorological impossibility" so maybe we shouldn't punt yet......3rd and 20? DT gets too wedded to his ideas for fantasy range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 true...plus DT just used the word "meteorological impossibility" so maybe we shouldn't punt yet......3rd and 20? Who's under center? Peyton Manning or Mark Sanchez? Impossibility or not, it would be a meteorological miracle for this to be any type of significant snow even. Yea, things can change but I just don't see anything that can push this thing south and east. Nice coastal on Jan 2nd... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 true...plus DT just used the word "meteorological impossibility" so maybe we shouldn't punt yet......3rd and 20? '(one of the reasons WHY it has been so damn warm is Because of the Pac Jet... now suddenly the pac jet is going to slow down?.... pluzzzzze...). Sorry...but I find that italicized part to be freakin' hilarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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